THE PETRODOLLAR IS DYING LADS, PREPARE THINE ANI FOR THE SHITSTORM THAT WILL COME
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IT HAS STARTED
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OPEC still trades in US dollars.
Although, to be fair, a compete or even noteworthy replacement won't happen for at least another decade.
The article is over a week old (January 16th). How come this hasn't been talked about more? I haven't heard a thing of this until now.
The world is burning my friend, I can not wait for us to finally be cleansed by the glorious atomic fire. Tomorrow will be wonderful. Bless Marx
Europe is starting to move further and further away from US influence
I mean for not much longer, Iran, Angola and Venezuela all seem to be on board with the petroyuan scheme.
Because it isn't /sexy/ news, the petroyuan establishment has been happening for hte last 6 months but no one gives a cock because MUH DRUMPF. It is very last days of Rome people talking about gossip rather than the hordes coming for the city.
Eh don't be so sure, all it takes is one major producer (as I mentioned, say Iran or Venezuela) to adopt it to really fuck with the value of the US dollar.
This isn't even about influence tbh, it is more about the fact it will mean Europe will be trading with US-enemy states for oil behind America's back. This will cause the US dollar to shit itself.
The US dollar will start to lose influence as well allowing for US cultural and political hegemony to be deeply threatened on a material level.
Stop it, I can only get so aroused.
Are you saying that the us empire may fall in my lifetime?
No user, we are saying the US empire WILL fall within a decade.
excluding car accidents and cancer diagnoses if you're under 60 you are likely to see it all come tumbling down
I think it is important to remember that while just about all non ameri-mutts would like the US to have greatly reduced influence outside of its own borders; America is a stabilising force from the wider geopolitical perspective.
Make no mistake that the loss of the US dollar as the worlds de-facto reserve currency would mean the disintegration of the US down to a regional power at best.
Consider a world in which Russia was free to eye up eastern Europe and the near east.
A world in which China had complete control over the western pacific, Africa and the sub continent.
A world in which the EU becomes a Europe spanning, devoutly neo-liberal state (basically America 2.0).
Rather then hoping for America to basically collapse in on itself.
I think hoping for swift, decisive and martial regime change for America is much more constructive for everyone.
A world where the old crops are culled and new seeds are sowed,
Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent
Mao Tse Tung
But user don't you see: the collapse of US hegemony will allow the third world to engage in more revolutionary activity, along with states in Europe to also.
It basically resets geopolitics to 1900, which is what we want.
1917 WILL COMMENCE AGAIN, YOU HEAR ME
As an American, what does this mean for me.
inb4 amerimutt. I'm not mixed, and I'm not white. So keep your disrespectful mean memes to yourself.
I personally lack the ability to be this callous.
The preventable death and suffering of working class people the world over that would result from the collapse of America is not something I would celebrate - Certainly not in the name of some vague hope that all of that suffering will result in a better world at some unknown point in the future.
I think you may want to remember just how bloody the early 20th century was.
I personally would not like to see the 21st century version of the second Boer war, or WW1 for that matter.
Putting a good regime in charge of America then using that nations existing international imperial infrastructure to absorb the other nation-states is a much less destructive method of ensuring a better future.
There's nothing wrong with being mixed, if anything it's better than being white, there is however a problem with being American.
Well currency crashes actually tend to mean little directly for the populace of the state: however if it is drastic enough it can shag the overall economy.
it's fucking nothing
Get ready for intense austerity from both parties. This country is dumb enough to think that national debt should affect the populace directly; how do you think a currency crash would be handled?
I've seen RT and SouthFront hype it a lot, and they tend to over-hype anything that could be bad for the US, so I'll believe it will cause a seismic shift when I see it.
This is a clear sign of future EU integration and movement away form vassalage that was trust upon it. Mutual defense treaty cannot be too far away.
in the 2020s America will implode in the way China did at the start of the 20th century and break apart in separate nations/warlordism and likely suffer technological regression in certain areas
A lot of Americans will move to China, there will be some unemployment, and wage cuts (especially in service and financial sectors) not much else though.
The EU will be America 2.0 Mark my words.
Transition from American Imperialism to Chinese Imperialism
2020s or 2030s, I mean the fracture-lines are already there, but the Balkanization will happen eventually, yeah. It depends on how quickly the oil shortages happen when world trade begins to break down, how quickly the world transitions away from the petrodollar, how hard the US economy collapses in the next couple years here, and what the government response to all this looks like, among like a million other factors.
THE FIRE RISES
It'll hinge a lot on how France and Germany react and orient themselves. Another question is how Britain will for into all of this should Corbyn stay steadfast.
Corbyn will make Trotsky look like an isolationist.
We can only hope
Is this the second industrial revolution or part 2 of the industrial revolution?
No user, it's the IVth industrial revolution: Cybernetic boogaloo.
The UK will be Isolationist if the Torries stay in Power, and even more so if Comrade Corbyn comes to power.
splendid isolation when
oh shit lads we cyclical
Is this the /leftyhabbening/ thread now?
I just want to survive. That’s all
Knowing the Intel Agencies, unlikely. You’ll just feed into whatever plans within plans they have and social manipulation. On the other hand, they may be stupid as fuck. I think they’re both
TOO BAD YOU DOLPHIN HATER
EMBRACE THE NUKES
I love dolphins 😢
Joke joke but whalew but whales will probably be the first to go, so far I’ve read
I hope they don't but the current level of fishing and pollution we are doing to the ocean we will easily kill 90% of all fish.
that, and krill are gonna die if the oceans keep warming up.
It's actually so depressing to think about shit like this. The fact that our grandchildren might never know what the fuck a "whale" is. Just sad.
is that pic real?
That's assuming we even have grandchildren.
So who is the U.S. going to bring down with them when they collapse?
Dolphins shall inherit the earth
Genetically modify the krill. Problem solved.
GMOs will unironically save the planet
Cuba, Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, all at once, it won't actually work, but the attempt will be incredibly stupid and cost thousands of lives, Trump will do it for sure.
There needs to be an effort to translate das kapital into dolphin speak.
It won't work on those nations, but what about all the countries that rely on the U.S. for trade or aid. The U.S. is going to take out a lot of people with it.
The Dialects are in Motion
No, there will be a attempt at saving the Amaricas and all of North and South America will be under a De Leonist federation with Anarchist Safe havenes.
Mark My words.
Are we living in the same world?
Of all these only the last one is unnerving. Russia's elite have had numerous opportunities to completely overrun their weaker neighbors, but they haven't. They could have occupied Tiblisi, but didn't. They could have overrun Ukraine, but didn't. (Let's not forget that this mess was partially the doing of the US alphabet soup)
Likewise, while the world's #1 superpower has spent the past few decades orchestrating coups, invasions, civil wars and famines, China has been doing the opposite. Using their growing economic leverage to rebuild countries ravaged by American imperialism, fight climate change, and invest in technologies that will improve the lives of billions.
The past few decades are a testimony to the impotence of American mass movements. The few that were on the verge of being successful were either co-opted, or crushed - with their leader assassinated, or thrown in prison. And with the rot permeating every echelon, the chances of subverting the system from within are even slimmer.
The government will soon, through austerity, render themselves more impotent than the next american mass movement. It's the ultimate cripple fight.
I hate America as much as the next person, but the stabilising influence their hegemony has had on the world is undeniable.
I'm under no illustrations that if it were not for American imperialism, I would be currently living under the yoke of one of two Asian powers.
Yet they have not due to the threat of action by NATO.
You remove America and you effectively remove NATO, getting rid of the only thing between Putin and the Carpathians that Russia desperately wants as its western border.
I kinda get why a euro-fag or some self hating ameri-mutt may think this, but as someone that lives in a nation that even now is in Chinas firing line; I can assure you that China is just as disgustingly imperialist as America.
Even ignoring the literal Chinese colonies that currently dot eastern Africa, China has taken to using 'soft power' subversion tactics to undermine and eventually gain control of all nations in the south western pacific.
When it comes to serving an imperial master, at least I can understand and even tolerate the one that just builds military bases in my country.
It is the one that makes use of bribery, intimidation and economic manipulation/subterfuge that fucking scares me.
I have to disagree.
Despite what some juvenile idealists here may think, mass movements seldom work.
Now regime change at the hands of the military, that is something that is quite common in times of peril and almost actually happened to America at-least one time in the past.
My suggestion is that the military simply hold on to state power once they so easily seize it.
EU-USA ALLIANCE NEARING END
OUR TIME IS COMING
STREETS OF BRUSSELS WILL BE PAINTED RED WITH OUR BLOOD AND BODY OF EVERY LIBERAL WILL END UP IN MASS GRAVE
EUROPEAN SOCIALIST UNION WITHIN LIFETIMES OF THOSE WHICH SURVIVE, AND ETERNAL GLORY FOR REST OF US
It's George Orwell's Socialist United States of Europe, it's gonna be great
I mean, as long as you don't persecute gays and ethnic groups and other moralist bullshit I'm fine
Orwell is long dead utopian. European socialist union will look much differently than any old leftist imagined.
Don't worry, Europeans are gay af
you can't really say you've abolished the present state of things until open air drug fueled orgies near the common land farm are ordinary
The people’s entente of France, Britain, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Benelux and Greece
Fuck off you white power Nazi cock gobbling faggot. None of that is even remotely scary.
My man, nobody builds military bases in a region unless they are doing the second part. The US was a master at intimidation and economic manipulation/subterfuge before they ever built their global ring of military bases.
Nothing is happening here.
holy shit the comments on this
My man, what is the (1898–1934)Banana Wars
This is, at the very least, an indicator for things to come.
I'm reminded of when banks used to stock Japanese yen as a reserve currency. Most likely, Yuan will prove to have more staying power.
So is America going to go out like Nazi Germany or the British Empire?
Oh god how embarrassing
Weimar Republic, actually. Collapse of the petrodollar will cause hyperinflation, too.
That assessment also fits almost 100 years of American economic policy-making. The US has pursued pro-inflationary policy since the days of Roosevelt. I honestly think the 1970s don't really make much sense as a decade if you don't take into account rampant double-digit inflation.
The Abbasid Caliphate
America's economy is fuuuuuuuuuucked (more than usual).
This is great news. Been saying we're one major economic collapse (none of that pussy 08 shit) away from socialist revolution. With the petrodollar collapse and US financial hegemony gone, the material comforts will be hit and the wheels will be set in motion.
Does that mean that America will devolve into a fascist state that will wage war on everyone and will eventually get raped by a strong socialist power?
There will be two possible victors: socialists or fascists. The fascists will basically be Holla Forums, alex jones, tea party, redneck prepper ilk this time around. Socialism would have strength in numbers and resonating with the majority of the populace.
Things won't collapse as fast as a lot of the people in this thread think they will. The USD still has a lot going for it and neoliberal policies will make sure that things stay "balanced" on the way down.
Instead, expect a general, slow decline.
Until we fix the clusterfuck that is the American public sector.
America is probably just going to end up like Brazil honestly.
balkanization is also a possibility
Honestly, I want to believe but the US has been in "decline" since the 1950s. Why, do I say that? Because, the international system couldn't fucking work with one country controlling 50% of world industry so America had to grant its allies some crumbs or it faced a rebellion.
In some ways, the US is actually more powerful then ever. It's economy is worth at least 19 trillion and it probably will pass the 20 trillion milestone before the next crash imo. China is America's closest rival but its economy is only worth a little bit more than half of America's nominal GDP. Let's think about this, when the USSR was at its peak against the US, its GDP was more then half of that of the US. The USSR was pound-for-pound more powerful then China which runs the risk of disintegrating in the face of mounting internal contradictions before the US does likewise.
One American company, Apple, has a market-cap of 900+ billion, we're talking about a company whose net-worth is close to matching Russia's annual GDP.
You also have to keep in mind that while the US surpassed the UK economically in the late 19th century, it didn't surpass it pound-for-pound until at least sometime after WWI and didn't claim world leadership until after WWII.
What we're seeing is a return to multi-polarity and the US had to share a lot more with the Soviets in terms of world leadership then it seems willing to give to China. The EU, on the other hand, which is a credible threat to American economic and political leadership is disintegrating in front of our eyes much to the hidden chagrin of insiders in Washington.
Tbh, the music should be Danse Macabre.
In 2016, Germany imported $29295867.2 worth of oil, E175765000000 exists in Germany's reserve (which is $195099150000). This means Germany used 1.5% of its assets to buy oil in the year 01-2016 12-2016. As such, a central bank of its kind would only need 1%-2% in assets to FULLY switch over to the petroyuan. Now the article talks of foreign currency reserves, which bumps it up a bit but no country would trade, in this post petrodollar paradigm, using wholy one or the other (apart from political reasons). Thus, having 1% yuan reserves is actually about what you need to get the petroyuan going.
I mean I am not expert on the working of central banks, if anyone knows better please say.
France and Britain were superpowers before getting wrecked, too. Austro-Hungarian Empire, Russian Empire, Ottoman Empire.
GDPs are meaningless, money is too. The people are what matters. USA is in decline because it's people are poor and miserable, while living in the richest country on Earth. It is one 24 hour blackout away from losing all control of its own population.
Those GDP gains aren't going to the workers though. Losing hegemony will likely cause goods to rise in price and wages will of course continue to stagnate. I don't think this alone will knock down the whole house of cards, but it will deliver a blow in some form or another.
Nah, America is Qing dynasty China, we're about to witness the opium wars again.
i haven't said anything because i don't know about other countries, but i can tell you this. Nothing is going to happen here. You are probably being delusional.
It's gonna be the years of lead fam.
Tbh I don’t know much about the Spanish political climate specifically, but France is Pretty radical and that could spill over
>implying I'm not forced into shitty
You mean when reactionary Western European powers ruled 75% of the Earth?
Yeah, nah, fuck that
as opposed to now when reactionary powers rule 100% of the earth
Don't forget that a large chunk of the population takes pills to stay sane. What's going to happen when those people can't afford those pills? The collapse is going to be a blood bath.
Do you mean people on antidepressants, Xanax, Opiate addicts, or all of the above? Someone going through withdrawal in a country where guns are easy to get will mean different things depending on what those drugs are
Not yet. Please not yet. God, give me a year till the shit hit the fan.
This. As much as I anxiously await the collapse of the US, I also sincerely and desperately hope that it happens after I've graduated and left the country.
Think later, like 1895 or so. The US will probably try to wage a war against some country in the next year or two and openly get defeated, probably in some limited way, causing a massive shock not only in the US but also globally. Along with an economic crisis and government crisis will cause collapse and dissolution of the US as a single political entity over a period of a decade or so
all of the above, user, in addition to mood stabilizers and anti-psychotics.
Save for maybe veterans, the vast majority of people who need mood stabilizers, antidepressants, and antipsychotics are far far more likely to kill themselves than harm anyone else.
Wait, the USA is Russia:
Vietnam was Crimea
The next war will be Japan…
American 1905 inbound
what a cool HABBBBENING thread. Hopefully everyone was doing this only ironically
That's pol profitable. Random warmongering only leads to hiper conservative thinking.
Remember catalonia? The neoliberal right will mutiply it's seats in the next election
France is, and ever will be, the exception the rest of europe can only look at
Except that time they overthrew feudalism
I don't think you understood what he meant
There are enough of them that will kill others for this to scare me. These drugs can have serious withdrawal symptoms and what are these people going to be like when all of society is breaking down?
Still an incredibly small number. The few of those who actually take the drugs likely already have basic support systems that could curb any sort of murderous rage you're imagining.
Suicide, likely. People with serious mental disorders, those who have any access to medicine anyway that is, are not that violent if at all. There are countless homeless with numerous psychological disorders that have never really harmed anyone. Schizophrenics, in particular, *rarely* harbor any murderous intent.
It’s going out the way Arabia went after the Islamic Golden Age ended.
The dialectic waits for no man
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If this just causes China to become stronger and not actually cause a global revolution, it isn't much to celebrate about
If it is how the economy collapses, well boys time to finish up all that Theory
China is a fucking paper tiger. They are Russian Empire to USA's Weimar Republic.
The US dollar is backed by the US military, which requires global power projection capability. And while US Armed Forces are just thugs for the rich elite, unprepared for real war, Chinese Armed Forces are absolute dogshit, unprepared for fucking anything.
No they are the worlds largest manufacture. With a petroyuan they could become more powerful than present day USA.
They treat their workers like dirt and keep devaluing the Yuan. So they could export cheap garbage.
They are not early 20th century USA, and never will be.
mfw I already have a good job in China working for a Chinese employer earning yuan, and have well-established relationships in China with the right people.
If there's any truth in any of this I'm looking forward to sipping my cocktails and watching it all burn from the new seat of power.
China isn't the next superpower. The era of unipolarity is ending. China will be competing with Russia, the EU, and a weakened (but still relevant) America.
South Africa and India potentially too.
Why South Africa?
Actually I take that back, apparently they had nukes at one point, but have since disarmed.
I would imagine though that relatively speaking South Africa is still the dominant nation in that region, technologically and economically, and will probably leverage that into some kind of regional hegemony if they haven't already.
OP here, you thought it hadn't started: little did you know it is too late to stop it.
However, too much dollar weakness also makes U.S. assets, including Treasury debt, less attractive, and pushes the cost of goods higher for businesses and everyday Americans.
Although I was largely user when I did so, I predicted that Trump's America First policy would translate into a pro-inflationary stance. Break out that disco all cause it looks like we're going back to the 70s.
Right so I spoke to a German mate would could get the data in German, the German central bank (Deutsches Bundesbank) holds 22% of its assets in foreign currency. As such, if we multiply our 1-2% figure (1.5 for the sake of simplicity) we get only 7% of foreign assets to buy ALL of Germany's oil in yuan. (this is providing there is a 1-1 exchange in value between assets switched into Yuan). Now we have no direct figure on how much yuan Germany has, however if the EU average is 1.1% (this includes nations like Slovenia, which have basically no international financial clout), then Germany building up to the 4-7% mark is perfectly reasonable and possible.
It will be most wonderful place on earth to live in. Can you even imagine what would happen? What could we achieve if every man and woman in europe would work towards advancement of society they live in?
The only world power which can really threaten us is USA. But if we would withdraw all our support to them, they would fall like house of cards.
I suppose hyperinflation is inflation too. :^)
is this big? sounds big. this will set the wheels in motion around the world.
This. Currently living in Ghana for a while and the locals clearly recognize China's influence as a creeping colonialism and resent it. Western leftists are incredibly chauvinistic to think that only Europe and the US can be imperialist, it honestly rings of inverted white mans burden
I also dont at all see any possibility of any even marginally positive coup happening in the US. What I imagine is the most likely scenario is a technocrat, Zuckerbergesque but more charismatic, pulls a soft coup using their social media/tech monopoly and the US becomes a silicon valley version of putins russia as it exists now, with China as the new major imperialist power globally.
But who the fuck knows, these are predictions based on what seems reasonable and what seems reasonable often has nothing to do with what actually happens.