Global Meltdown Thread

Chinese Credit Bubble Edition.

If you've been keeping pace with financial news, you would already know of the huge credit bubble in China that is making wallstreet losers jittery.

thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/332505-china-is-far-away-but-its-bursting-bubble-will-hit-close-to

Partly due to the relaxing of regulations after the 2008, this bubble is now huge and threatens global consequences if it collapses. Cheap credit fueled a local housing bubble and an M&A acquisition craze that continues unabated. This relaxed attitude towards credit also funded property acquisition overseas leading to property bubbles all over the world. Meaning, any local crash in China will most certainly have effects on the economies of some of the biggest cities in the world, like New York and London.


The effects of a global slowdown will be compounded by the condition of the worker being worse off than 2008; we're in more debt (student loans, auto loans etc), working conditions are more precarious and median wages are lower than they were in 2008 in real terms.

Even a minor crash will most certainly lead to a period of debt deflation keeping China dependant economies depressed for the duration.


More signs that the credit bubble is having an impact already:

express.co.uk/finance/city/816611/credit-crunch-debt-bubble-2007-financial-crash

On a related note, the recent surge of bitcoin prices were fueled by this same credit boom.

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=ev-J1KuDGZE
reuters.com/article/us-funds-hayman-idUSKBN1962IN
youtube.com/watch?v=7_4sKLS9Wr8
ft.com/content/10c63024-5866-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f?mhq5j=e2
wolfstreet.com/2017/06/23/ecb-shuts-veneto-banca-banca-popolare-di-vicenza-italian-banking-crisis/
wsws.org/en/articles/2017/06/24/chin-j24.html
archive.is/6I9Og
archive.is/M27Sm
archive.is/OFtyF
msn.com/en-us/money/markets/another-recession-would-ruin-two-thirds-of-americans-survey-finds/ar-BBDeZPI?li=BBnbfcL
youtube.com/watch?v=4ADfH9Rt6pc
it.slashdot.org/story/12/05/28/1454222/backdoor-found-in-china-made-us-military-chip
thehackernews.com/2016/11/hacking-android-smartphone.html
bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/fsr/2017/jun.aspx
reuters.com/article/us-china-ipo-idUSKCN0SV1AK20151106
archive.is/kszGr
reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKBN19I2I5
archive.is/fnNUf
archive.is/vBpKg
mobile.twitter.com/ProfSteveKeen/status/879975531202183168
truthdig.com/report/item/japan_write_off_nearly_half_national_debt_inflation_20170628
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-30/buffett-to-swap-5-billion-bofa-shares-for-17-billion-of-stock
nakedcapitalism.com/2017/06/links-63017.html
cnbc.com/2017/06/28/chinas-debt-surpasses-300-percent-of-gdp-iif-says-raising-doubts-over-yellens-crisis-remarks.html
youtube.com/watch?v=huH65q87Qdw
japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/12/27/editorials/fiscal-2017-budget/#.WVkrRYTyuM8
nakedcapitalism.com/2017/07/jim-chanos-u-s-economy-worse-think.html
archive.is/7To3Z
zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-03/goldman-sachs-what-happens-next-recession-war-or-goldilocks)
archive.is/yYWQd
theantimedia.org/federal-reserve-crisis/
unz.com/article/chinas-financial-debt-everything-you-know-is-wrong/
reuters.com/article/us-china-debt-household-idUSKBN1360OK
nakedcapitalism.com/2017/07/chinese-debt-time-bomb.html
macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
wolfstreet.com/2017/07/10/sp500-eps-stagnate-p-e-multiple-expansion/
reuters.com/article/us-ratings-sovereigns-downgrade-s-p-idUSKBN19X24G
reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKBN19X1MX
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-11/bored-traders-on-tinder-are-a-symptom-of-wall-street-revenue-dip
youtu.be/grb-_xdqpEQ
twitter.com/AnonBabble

youtube.com/watch?v=ev-J1KuDGZE

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Steven Keen talked about it long ago the crisis in china will be the worst.

I don't know if the Left is organized enough to compound on this opportunity.

The right will blame it on communism and that's probably going to be a mainstream position.

Who the fuck other than the creditors thought this was a good idea? Does everyone with an advanced degree making over $100,000 lack critical thinking skills and basic memory?

are you kidding me? they all know what it means they just hope to cash in and get out before it collapses

stfu libtard less regulations = more freedom = more prosperity

>All because sheltered Leftists and academics decided it was better to alienate the rest of the people for a tiny minority over ridiculous squabbles

No one's fault but capitalism and our own.

We need to do pic related to the neoliberals right now before the crash

This

webm for posting convenience

Modern china isn't even communist anymore.

I'm not saying China is communist in any meaningful sense. Im saying that's what people on the right will say.

One can dream.

How can we capitalize on this?

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Fucking Americans with their "a bloo bloo bloo the left will never win" when they're actually talking about their own country - get a fucking grip and stop shitting your tears down everyone's neck.

Organise like crazy. Try to gain popular support. Loose the stupid edge outside of depraved corners of the internet. Address the problems of average people, the housing crisis in a lot of western nations for example. Move beyond the 20th century. Form large united fronts of radicals. And then when the opportunity arises during crisis, we seize the power away from the powerful.

Question. Should I act like a Social Democrat (you know the Bernie Sanders type) to try and begin the snowball affect of them questioning capitalism and the rich or should I push for Mutualism which is a good stepping stone ideology for the Libertarian Left?

Based China engineering the final crisis of capitalism.

I always knew they were never real capitalists

To be honest I've begun to think that they're cointelpro shills spouting that shit, or else they're just entirely ignorant of the state of the left in the US. Yeah, it's anemic at best, but it grows stronger by the day. It's going through the whole process now of having to completely rebuild itself after being torn down during the 20th century.

The more worthless old fuckers that die off and the more young people either go into work out of high school or into debt slavery for college is just going to keep adding fuel to the fire.

We're comin' bucko.

Get people to question the legitimacy/need of private property. Preferably with out the whole "lol property is theft", at least to begin with, as to most normal people that sounds scary. Also, to try and explain the difference between social democracy and socialism. The whole "socialism is co-ops" is a good place to start for most average people.
Social democracy should, I think at least, be abandoned by radicals. While Corbyn and Bernie are a good start in mainstream politics, we cant be to trusting of reformism.

reuters.com/article/us-funds-hayman-idUSKBN1962IN

Some porkies believe that the bubble is worse than reported, because the Chinese government keeps these things under wraps.

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>>The westAmerica descends into fascism with an apetite for global war, declares war with China
FTFY

Honestly, one would be foolish to believe otherwise.

Jump on succdem bandwagon and after they inevitably fail step up front and claim you'll do it for reals this time.

It's the middle aged ones who are really cagey. Lotta old comrades tbh

The way I see it, the lib left is asleep. Lots of people are waiting to be radicalised, and the moment it happens we have to spring into action. Act hurt. Act betrayed. Tell your friends, tell your family, tell people at work, tell people you don't even know.

Sow the seeds of rebellion, of leftist rhetoric and criticism of capitalism. And then watch the chain reaction happen.

The Europeans on this board are insufferable edgelords that do t read theory. They're Left out of viciousness and resentment, not genuine emotion for the plight of the worker
Just Ignore them
They try to derail every thread in exchange for Rubles

that's because the europeans on this board are actual workers :^)

Right, only the Correct Races can be Workers, right Fuhrer?

Trusting Chinese anything is pretty foolish tbh

This is hilariously true. Theres an 80 year old Maoist woman in my redneck revolt chapter.

should I trust my qt chinese gf

I've permanently damaged my knee at work doing overtime (on a weekend no less) and last November I was jobless for a month because I injured the tendon in my forearm because our managers wouldn't give us mallets to compress bags of wet concrete like material.

And I barely make rent despite wrecking my body, why shouldn't I feel resentment knowing things could be done better if not for a bunch of entitled parasites?

Jimmy Dore just had an episode on housing costs

youtube.com/watch?v=7_4sKLS9Wr8

My thought is to always proclaim oneself as a communist whilst doing anything and everything to help with people's immediate needs and educating against capitalist propaganda. It'd be tough going to begin with, but eventually people would see the material difference and hop on to the red wagon. The only problems are exposing false flags, neutralizing disinformation, and preventing infighting.

bumping the thread

What if this was the Chinese Maoist plan all along?
To take part in the Capitalist economy and then crash the plane with no survivors?

No, she just wants your baby

This. The people who radicalized in the 60s and 70s are usually the best and most disciplined in any tendency.

ECB closes down two top Italian banks after deciding not to bail them out.
ft.com/content/10c63024-5866-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f?mhq5j=e2

The banks have combined assets of 60 billion euros.
wolfstreet.com/2017/06/23/ecb-shuts-veneto-banca-banca-popolare-di-vicenza-italian-banking-crisis/

Expect this to have both economic and political ramifications

Have we…

emphasis on no survivors

I'm reading italian news and they say they didn't shut down anything and the government is gonna decide what to do tomorrow.

Frankly the most important work you can be doing right now is warning people about the upcoming recession. The political economy you will gain when you are right is invaluable to converting people.

What should we be doing in terms of our own personal wealth before the crash?

You absolutely should, it is vital to get people marching in the leftward direction, however slightly so that that's the road they keep to when the crisis hits. If you start out saying "the rich don't pay their fair share," then you have a crisis, you can go "see!" and hang the bankers. If people were however pre-crisis blaming everything on immigrants, to pick but one group, the crisis will make them reach for their brown shirt.


the eternal burger

Nah they won't experience it like a western country would, as soon as they begin to experience a crash they will instantly switch from private to state credit and liquidate their entire foreign exchange reserves

take all you got and hide it in a mattress

buy bitcoins

wsws.org/en/articles/2017/06/24/chin-j24.html


[…]


[…]

aaand they saved them. gave them 5 billions.

AAAAH MAMA MIA WE HAFTA KEEPA THEM PLATES A-SPINNIN'

you what now?

and again, socialism will be to blame for all the world's evil. who would have thought.

This should be a cycical thread or at the very least a series of threads, /leftecon/ #X or something. It would be very interesting for people to follow this over the following months.

So what happens when they collapse next week then

How will Holla Forums try to act like nothing is going wrong? Use the "unemployment" numbers that libs used when Obama was president?

Illinois debt about to be rated 'junk' status

archive.is/6I9Og

New report from Bank of International Settlements:

archive.is/M27Sm

archive.is/OFtyF

People are still recovering from the last one. Houses are unaffordable to everyone except those already with one in many Western countries. Wages have been stagnant as "austerity" since the last recession. Trump and populism have proved to be the same shit to even those that voted for them, and isn't bringing back jobs. Student loans are even higher over people's head than 10 years ago.

What else?

blow it up

they're gonna suck germany's dick so they don't die

A lot of computer security people think there really is a Chinese kill button, it's call the Intel Management Engine

So what do you buy to make some money? Shorts in banks? Or what?

Fascism and ww3.

1918 was our last chance and we blew it. gg no re.

Somehow I doubt China will be that badly affected by any sort of financial collapse. They're not actually socialist, but the do have the trappings of communism and the power structure to do pretty much anything, so they could very easily nationalize the defunct industries, negate all the internal debt, and then execute the profiteers to negate backlash. Nobody outside of China can reasonably do anything about it either because you need Chinese rare earth metals to make electronics and you can't topple a government when the country has that many people and the elite are either even better off than before or dead.

Is China self-reliant yet?

As in can they produce enough to feed, clothe, and house themselves?

If so, why would they need to worry about an international financial crisis sparked off by their asset bubble?

Surely they could tell the bankrupt foreigners to fuck off and start again without using capitalism?

Does this mean I can finally afford a Park Slope apartment?

How can you be this dumb, user ?

That's not what I meant, if China is capable of making everything that it needs (correct me if I'm wrong), then why would they would they need to appease capital in the face of a financial crisis?

I'm not saying other countries will drop capitalism, but why would China need to play this game if they are self-sufficient?

OK, first, I'm not sure China is self-reliant, secondly, if an economic crisis economy started in China they'll need other countries' help to recover, and Third, China has a capitalist economy.

China is seriously lacking in both water and energy. The country is replete with systemic problems that the CCP is either desperately trying to manage or preempt.

OK China's economy is capitalist NOW, but if they are creating the physical tangible things that people need, why should they destroy their REAL industrial productivity to satisfy made up numbers on a spreadsheet?

I guess this settles it ie no they can't just withdraw from the capitalist game it seems just yet, assuming they ever plan to.

...

msn.com/en-us/money/markets/another-recession-would-ruin-two-thirds-of-americans-survey-finds/ar-BBDeZPI?li=BBnbfcL

Really makes you think

Zizek actually talked about this, His theory is basically that it's advantageous for the bourgeois merchant class to let another class do the ruling.
youtube.com/watch?v=4ADfH9Rt6pc

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Stalin was a better daddy dom than he was a capitalist though

Nah, Stalin wouldn't shove people in sweatshops.

that was trotsky's policy

Is this a joke or a legitimate thing.

They can't make everything they need. And if they want to tear up contracts so can the countries that provide the Chinese with food if might is right wasn't a truism

It's real, very real. So long as software and firmware remain proprietary, whoever controls production controls the user. The Chinese government can easily mandate the inclusion of this into all Chinese-produced hardware, and no one would be able to consistently check it without a massive set of tests, much less remove it. Moreover, when considering costs and benefits, there's absolutely no reason whatsoever for the Chinese government to not mandate this.
it.slashdot.org/story/12/05/28/1454222/backdoor-found-in-china-made-us-military-chip
thehackernews.com/2016/11/hacking-android-smartphone.html
I'd upload a Stallman "told you so" image, but I'm on Tor.

It's legitimate but it's more likely to be the result of an NSA deal with manufacturers than anything involving China.

People have been doomsaying about the impending "crisis in China" that is going to ruin the world for 20 years. There's a point where we have to acknowledge racial fears about the rise of the sinister Oriental.

Look at the graph. These are actual numbers.

Financial stability report released by Bank of England today had warnings about China's debt and potential impact on UK.

bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/fsr/2017/jun.aspx

All Intel CPUs since 2006 and AMD CPUs since 2013 have a black box that nobody knows what they do lol

Though they're probably used for surveillance rather than some killswitch out of sci-fi

india is becoming the new china kek

It's a legitimate thing. It's called the "management engine" and is for remote control of computers, ostensibly just for IT enterprise users who need to configure computers over a network.

However…
It can't be turned off.
It can't be removed.
Its source code is proprietary.
No one knows what its actually running or doing.
It has MANDATORY access to all parts of the system at all times.
If it becomes nonoperational for any reason, the system won't boot.

Everyone is worried about software when the real evil is hardware.

Brainlet here, what's the story on the unemployment numbers? Why are they wrong and how do you refute libs who use them to say that the economy is doing well jobs-wise?

They're faked by changing the definition of what employment constitutes
So, if you're unemployed, but you haven't searched for a job in the last 2 weeks, you're technically not included in unemployment. They also don't touch on underemployment or people working for far less than they normally would due to lack of available work.

check out Shadowstats, he usually does a decent write up on what real unemployment is probably at, likely 23% or so

Not all AMD CPUs since 2013 have this "feature", only CPUs from family 16h and onwards.

The Intel Management Engine has direct memory access to all parts of the computer, has its own CPU and encryption engine built in. Its basically a mini computer on every motherboard that can't audited.

It can be both a kill switch and spy. I really think these last couple of years of major leaks are due to the intel ME.

THE DIALECTIC IS IN MOTION!!!!

I wonder what the signals were before the 2008 crisis. It seems to me that a lot of institutions are currently wary of another crisis. Didn't they fail to predict the previous crisis? What has changed since then?

They did fail. Not much has changed since capital still pushes the austerity/private debt increases that caused the first crash. Neoliberal ideology is too strong

So if they mostly failed to predict the previous crisis, what has changed so that analysis like has seemingly become more widespread? This time last year there was also a lot of talk of the Chinese economy collapsing.

2015/2016 Chinese crisis had more to do with a stock market bubble, not finance related like it is now.

reuters.com/article/us-china-ipo-idUSKCN0SV1AK20151106

There might be more personal anxiety because while a bailout is almost guaranteed, like last time you mostly had a few big winners and lots of losers. However the chips fall this time, we're probably going to see an even bigger shift in the economic landscape since things are even more consolidated than before.

So really these 'warnings' aren't really trying to prevent any kind of crash, it's just too announce last call before the buffet is closed.

We cyclic now

archive.is/kszGr

I've seen a lot of bourgeois economists criticize shadow stats but they never address the fact that the U-6 measure he uses was formerly used by the US government itself

So, by this measure, which is is really conservative, unemployment is slightly over 8%.

nah that were just the first baby steps

puberty ended in 1989-90

now it will be time for the adults to handle things :)

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racist desu, cleanse yourself of spooks

Wait, if this is true, then when did the US government switch? Does this mean that the Keynesian "golden age" unemployment stats were even better than they looked on the surface?

I'm an economic idiot and this thread makes little sense to me. So, basically, World Depression pt 2 is incoming?

World Depression pt 1 never ended for most.

In a nutshell:
All the problems that created the last great economic crisis in 2007/8 have remained unfixed for the past decade, and what few fixes that were implemented have since been rolled back. Obama's Citigroup's plan to fix this problem was for the Fed to print, literally, trillions of dollars and then loan it to the banks (at practically no interest, basically free money) under the assumption :^) that they'd invest it in the economy. You know, production, jobs, the whole spiel.

Instead, being capitalists, they've been dumping it into the last sector of the economy that's actually turning a profit: financial schemes/the stock market. You know how gigantic corporations can keep posting record profits year after year, but the economy only gets worse? You cut out the whole "business" process entirely and just get free money from your friends at the bank, that's how.

So, for a little context, that last economic crisis in 07 was so bad that it threatened to bring the entire global economy to a screeching halt. Now, those exact same circumstances are starting to arise again as banks begin to founder beneath the billions of dollars/euros of bad financial products that they've created, and on top of all of that are the trillions of dollars in loans that the Federal Reserve has been giving these financial institutions. They've lent them so much money that if regular inflation rates resumed, despite the relatively minuscule rates of interest, they would be crushed beneath all the interest alone.

If you look back at the 20th century, you'll see that there was some kind of economic recession, collapse, or other emergency about every 7-15 years, so we're kind of coming due. Two things are likely to happen: either the bottom drops out on the global economy and through some kind of scheme the institutions involved get bailed out again, or we experience an economic apocalypse that will make the Great Depression look like small potatoes.

Even recently there have been several smaller events/shocks/panics/crises (pic related) that have come close to upsetting the whole game board. The Chinese stock panic and the Jan-Feb dip both in themselves represent losses of hundreds of billions of dollars. If the whole thing keels over, it'll be an economic disaster of unprecedented proportions.

That's my understanding, anyway. Hopefully someone can point out any mistakes. Does that help?

not that guy, but is it wrong that while i was reading this i was stoked as fuck?

Not in the least.

Quantitative Easing was supposedly better because it avoids the "moral hazard" from erasing all the debts of 99% and goes to the banks themselves, you know, the people who just blew through trillions.

I should probably note here that it's "literally trillions" rather than "literally printing." All this money the Fed has been giving away is actually just imaginary, without even the greenbacks to back it up.

**yes, because you imagine it will be this massive change in the world that will take down the pillars of this system, to allow something new to be born, when in fact for your own life it will mean little more than mass suffering and immense degradation of the lives of you and those you love."

Holy shit every single one of these is out of date and it's much worse than what these say.

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so like the last 5000 years then

Helps tons, sounds fucking horrifying. Is there anything an average person like me to do? Will nowhere be safe?

Buy guns. Bout it.

How safe is it to invest in real state in Colombia? Would it be truly safe to do such a thing and won't the property value drop through the floor?

So it's just inevitable, huh.
Any time frame? Although I guess you can't truly guess when this stuff's going to happen.

Reduce your debt. Forums like /r/personalfinance may aid alleviating some of the burden, but, individual responsibility can only take you so far. So, stop voting for austerity.

Not sure. It's still a semi-official measure taken seriously by economists but the media is always pushing the U-3 measure because it makes things look better.

According to PCR the gov dropped the U-6 measure in the 90s because it undermined the narrative they were pushing about a miracle economy.

I can see what you say being a plausible position because in the 60s unemployment was so low that auto workers refused to carry out the designs created by management and insisted that the companies accept their improvements or they wouldn't work.

I'm just a poorfag, so my options are kind of limited. My "plan" right now is to talk to people about it, develop a support network, and try to prepare physically and ideologically for what might happen. I don't think a Mad Max scenario is really very likely, but it wouldn't hurt like

says, and have a gun. Maybe it's just my burger paranoia , but I'm sort of expecting a government crackdown in some form or another.
The impression I have is that global capital has become so pervasive that the places untouched by an economic event of this magnitude will be few and far between. Pretty much every major economy on the planet has been following this neoliberal agenda, austerity/quantitative easing, whatever, and most everyone else is dependent on them in one way or another.


I dislike using "inevitable" because I'm not clairvoyant, and capital is very adaptable. I don't recall anyone anticipating the bailouts happening the first time, for example. On the one hand, I'd find it hard to believe that the bourgeoisie has just ignored the very real possibility of something like this happening again and didn't have something cooked up for it, but on the other hand, even if they did, it would mean having to make fundamental changes to the system as it currently exists, and that would hurt the profits of a lot of wealthy people, so even if they did have a plan whether or not they'd be able to implement it is another thing entirely.

All I know is that the current system is already breaking down and has been for the past decade, so one way or another we're going to be facing the end of this current economic situation.

Overly optimistic, unless she has a life threatening disease or something.

reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKBN19I2I5

Or unless something incredibly sinister has already developed at the fed

Everything they say or even hint at is some kind of political ploy of some kind. Honestly I am more concerned when they try to promote economic optimism.

I'm thinking when the bourgeoisie explicitly tells you not to worry about a financial crisis it's time to worry about a financial crisis.

There's been rumors for years that capitalism will be saved by a bail in. All deposits of proles will be seized, and probably all their secured assets like home with mortgages too.

Telling lies like that in order to keep the economy stable is one of the most important functions of the federal government. It's no surprise that they would say something like this at a time of uncertainty.

Steve Keen responds to Yellen.

Page 1 archive.is/fnNUf
Page 2 archive.is/vBpKg

mobile.twitter.com/ProfSteveKeen/status/879975531202183168

Didn't Bernake say something similar at the very start of 2008?

So what? We enter another great recession, the banks get bailed out, and continue this until we all die or revolt?

Leftists still believe they can do something about it somehow. They still believe they can steer the boat away from doom once the collapse starts in earnest.
Just give up this silly political activism nonsense and enjoy life while it lasts, yes it's shallow and awful for a lot of us but there is no alternative. Really it's not so bad being in the front seat to watch the end times unfold.

Except we haven't even fully recovered from 2008. So this next crash would be akin to a hospital patient who is on crutches being kicked in the tits. Only this particular kick to the tits happens to be the most powerful kick in history.

t. middle class college student

Not even close.

I certainly don't think we can avoid the coming collapse. Doesn't mean I'm just gonna roll over and die though, if there's any tiniest bit of hope for freedom I'm going to take it

As Zizek keeps saying, it is easier for us to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.

last time there was a crisis i experienced no negative effects on me. as long as they're not entirely dissolving the social security net i personally have no expectations of being effected. pretty confident they wont do that shit and fuck over people who still have a job instead. if they went after my social segment they'd be fucked.

You have welfare to lose you boob.

God this thread is depressing

Isn't he a clown pretty much? That is completely wrong anyway.

Not to say it'll be pretty, but I can't imagine it'd be worse than the Great Depression: we don't have the Dust Bowl to deal with, and it seems like there were more fascists in that period than now as well.

exactly. however that's already the bare minimum that they are willing to give already. worst case it'll be less and i wont be able to safe up as much and re-buy broken down shit. state is actually pretty well off so they'll probably just not raise my gibmedats for a while longer.
they'll have to calm workers however that'll fall into my segment and keep it thus relatively safe while fucking up those still able to work. just like last time.

That's what happened on Cyprus iirc, and there were talks of that being the ultimate option if Italian banks fail en masse.

But really, how could all the deposits even hope to come close to covering all the worthless assets and cyclopean loans that banks have taken on in the past decade? Most people are up to their eyebrows in debt as it is.

Will that be the scam? The banks seize all prole assets in "exchange" for debt forgiveness? Then the debt fueled consumption gets to start all over again.

Meanwhile in Japan, they've figured out what they should do with the national debt.

truthdig.com/report/item/japan_write_off_nearly_half_national_debt_inflation_20170628

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literally have no idea what this means. do i need to read graeber

While I think the whole state-bond scam is retarded and literally state-capitalism in its purest form I'm not sure about this plan. Wouldn't investors raise the selling-price of their bonds if they expect that the government will pay out handsomely for such debt? And will this be a continuing thing where the government issues more debt and more debt only to buy it back from investors at a profit? It could only really be called a "debt jubilee" if the government cancelled the debt outright and quit servicing interest payments on it tbh.


I don't think its necessary to grasp this, its fairly simple. Michael Hudson would be a good read though he interrogates the debt-question from more of a political economy side of things.

Bump

In short it means more money going from public hands into private, from the government to whatever corporations can afford to buy all that debt.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-30/buffett-to-swap-5-billion-bofa-shares-for-17-billion-of-stock

nakedcapitalism.com/2017/06/links-63017.html

Some good stuff on naked capitalism today, though it looks like the best is locked behind FT, as usual.

This report came out in the last few days.

cnbc.com/2017/06/28/chinas-debt-surpasses-300-percent-of-gdp-iif-says-raising-doubts-over-yellens-crisis-remarks.html

It must be noted that 300% is way above the upper-limit given by Steve Keen. He mentions 260% of debt to gdp as the manageable level of debt before countries falter. Speaking of Keen, he was on the Hidden Forces podcast recently. youtube.com/watch?v=huH65q87Qdw

Oh for fuck's sake, how can anyone still believe this horseshit that Buffett has fantastic luck investing in Too Big To Fail banks that happen to get bailed out almost immediately after he's involved in them? Cunt's the son of a fucking Congressman, he's buried into the Beltway like bedbugs in a seedy motel mattress

No he's completely correct. That's why there's a hundred movies/books/etc of "realistic" end of the world scenarios each year but anyone referencing a potential alternative to capitalism is a utopian or a loony.

you can read ft articles by just reading the google cache

I read an article suggesting that Japan was basically "merely pretending" to have economic problems and has been vastly exaggerating its debt woes for various reasons. Asian finance in general seems to break conventional rules.

Holla Forums wants this to happen too ya fuckhead, fascism and communism build off eachother.

"Alternative" implies things can go on like this forever. As far as I know communists still believe in the myths of progress and infinite growth…
When the industrial civilisation collapses for one reason or another, nobody will give a damn about ideologies. Communism is already dead and won't make a come back when billions are dead or dying, I mean, do you think socalism and socialists are anything but a laughingstock nowadays? More realistically we're more likely to see a resurgence of fascist thought as the situation further deteriorates, since there won't be much to "redistribute" anyway.

If you're hoping for "better tomorrows" once shit hits the fan, you're setting yourself up for huge disappointment.

That's not true at all. They had debt deflation during the 90s early 2000s and struggled quite a lot.

Yeah, you know fuck all. It was Marx who described infinite growth as a property of the CAPITALIST mode of production, since the property owner always has to earn more than he invests (ie. growth), and this growth is exponential in nature (or as Hegel describes, a bad infinity).
Under the communist mode of production, production is done for use, and thus there is no need for infinite growth, only what is needed to supply the population, which will start declining in 50 years.
Now shut up and read a book, faggot

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This shit would be good for squatting, democratize housing and seize a bit of property whilst increasing class consciousness; assuming of course housing gets even worse. We could capitalize on this actually

I'm not going to read theoretical commie nonsense. That'd be like learning to hunt down dodo birds. That ship has sailed long time ago, but feel free to believe you will achieve communism in a world that has gone to shit, when you couldn't establish it when we had peak prosperity.

So traditional societies and hunter-gatherers tribes basically?

Throw away your secular bible kid, and come back to the real world, where communism was, unsurprisingly, an utter failure.

You have literally refuted nothing that OP said. Please contain your butthurt and at least try or fuck off.

Looks like you're the one being butthurt, friend.

Then stop commenting on shit you can't or won't read

So are you from halfchan or some corner of reddit? Even 8/pol/ is never this dull

Peak prosperity? The red Eastern nations hadn't even fully developed capitalism yet, something Lenin himself recognized. Some on the far left still defend the dictatorships of the 20th century, but the rest of us want to leave theories like Marxism-Leninism behind.

If you think nuance is irrelevant to real world politics, that's your problem, not ours.

Yeah, you know except we have factories and robots and modern agriculture you mong
Now go and fucking educate yourself you half-brained twat before you embarrass yourself even more. You should at least know what you're talking about before spouting bullshit

Fams, stop derailing this thread. This is a comfy collapse thread.

These things aren't sustainable though… Resources aren't infinite…

so your claiming society itself is unsustainable?

feel free to start arguing any time now

I'm seriously debating buying silver bullion

You're right, none of them are but industrial civilisation less so than any other
and we will leave a huge mess behind (spent fuel ponds!)

your like a little baby
Here
watch this

READ BOOKCHIN

Congrats, you have discovered entropy. Nothing is infinite. Hunter-gatherer societies aren't infinite, and neither are agricultural societies. Nothing is sustainable forever, especially when we're limited to this planet (since, you know, the sun will eventually blow up). But some modes of production are more unsustainable than others. Capitalism is unsustainable because every idiot can see that you can't have unlimited growth in a limited space. Pre-industrial society is unsustainable because production is hugely energy- and resource-inefficient (it's more efficient to make stuff in a big-ass factory than it is to make them in a thousand tiny workshops), and the only reason it didn't destroy the entire ecosystem like our society is is because of scale. Communism has neither of those problems.

yes the communist factories are different than the capitalist ones… when the communists burn coal and oil it's different as well… communist industry, capitalist industry, what's the f-ing difference? they run into the same issues eventually.
Look… communism didn't even last one century, how pathetic is that… sure is even less efficient than traditional societies that lasted millenia.

What did he mean by this?

They're still paying a quarter of all federal expenditures towards debt servicing though
japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/12/27/editorials/fiscal-2017-budget/#.WVkrRYTyuM8

Do towns and prefectures collect their own revenues and write their own budgets like US/Aus States or Canadian Provinces?

Things have changed at a number of central banks, a lot of staff have moved away from the neoclassical theories and towards neokeynesian and other heterodox.
However governments seem to be stuck on their 1980s bullshit.

This thread requires a higher level of intelligence than you're clearly capable of. How about be a good lad and scurry off to another thread for noobs and we can continue to discuss topics that go over your head in this one?

Communism seems to go over every single human on earth head's at the moment fam. How's Venezuela doing by the way?

More fox news talking points lol. Seriously, skip both Holla Forumss and even reddit and go straight back to facebook, grandpa

You really are a big fucking retard you know that? You sound like a 15-year old Cuban-American from a youtube comment section.

Please kill yourself.

why don't you advocate for traditional/pre-industrial societies instead of commie ones? Are communists less greedy and less prone to raping the earth? history tells us they aren't.

Stop taking the retarded anprim's bait. It's derailing an actually good thread

nakedcapitalism.com/2017/07/jim-chanos-u-s-economy-worse-think.html

You can't go backwards.

Good read, he does fail to mention the ongoing debt crisis at the local and state level
Watch Illinois, they're the first domino to tumble

Has anyone found a use for zerohedge or is that site totally unsalvageable?

Sometimes there is a golden nugget buried in all the shit

Sometimes

zerhedge :1.the world is ending and the economy is collapsing all the time. 2. buy gold

I can't stand the comment section, and their commentary is beyond obnoxious. But they're so quick with their updates on twitter, in that way they're sort of indispensable if you're into trading and markets.

par exemple archive.is/7To3Z (zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-03/goldman-sachs-what-happens-next-recession-war-or-goldilocks)

Contrast this with the comments beneath it and most other articles you can find on that site.

Bump

Is Holla Forums raiding us with Bush memes?

no
I just thought it would be appropriate

How is shooping Bush into various pictures of radicals and re-posting them across Holla Forums at all productive? You're sliding and making us look like fools at the same time. Don't act like Holla Forums if you don't want to come off as Holla Forums. Simple, really.

that was the only one I've posted, so back the fuck off

More details on the M&A ( merger and acquisition) craze mentioned in the OP

archive.is/yYWQd

Sorry guys, it's time to close this thread


theantimedia.org/federal-reserve-crisis/

Stop being a newfag, Jeb is an old leftist meme at this point. If you don't like it just call it unfunny without sperging about Holla Forums

Yay affordible housing in London soon.

PLEB
L
E
B

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Counter-point to the narrative in this thread:

China's Financial Debt: Everything You Know Is Wrong
unz.com/article/chinas-financial-debt-everything-you-know-is-wrong/

His point is that most of the debt is in state-owned companies, hence it should not be treated as straightforward corporate debt. The rest of his argument is less convincing.
Inflated growth figures and construction spending on building ghost cities.
This crisis is not similar to the previous "Asian shocks" and this might matter less.
This was true a few years ago, not anymore. reuters.com/article/us-china-debt-household-idUSKBN1360OK

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that'd be like claiming Holla Forums is a nazi board if Holla Forums did regular raids on it.

Isn't libreboot only god on really old thinkpads.

What's corebooted? Does it really get rid of ME. Saw a

Ah, yes, the exclusive ranks of the Holla Forumsacks. Yet to actually find one. Everyone denies being on Holla Forums, it's that fucking shameful.

I would've suspected the killswitch to be a little bit more subtle.

bumping thread

Hot damn, this thread just makes me realize that I don't understand economics for fucking shit.

Don't feel bad. As much as economists like to pretend that their subject is some kind of objective, material science, economics as we currently understand them is fucking ludicrous, especially because it's all made up to be as nonsensical as possible, both to obfuscate itself and take advantage of the fine art of legalese. "Economics" is a gigantic, Gordian superstructure tangled around an atrophied material base.

I definitely recommend researching it and teaching yourself as much about it as you can, but don't expect it to become any more sensible as you do.

If most of the people on Holla Forums were nazis it would be a nazi board. Most of the people on Holla Forums are just edgy neocons and you know it as well as I do.

What don't you understand?

nakedcapitalism.com/2017/07/chinese-debt-time-bomb.html

Naked Capitalism comments on the issue. Article had some interesting comments.

Just as an FYI, gasoline prices continue to collapse due to lack of demand.
Damien Courvalin of Goldman: such a plunge "would require a US recession" and add that "implied demand data points to US gasoline demand in January declining 460 kb/d or 5.2% year-on-year."

I suspect things will go tits up this year, especially with the Fed hell bent on raising rates

Other things of note

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Don't worry neither do the authors of all these selfserving clickbait articles

macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Soon. I can feel it in my bones.

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wolfstreet.com/2017/07/10/sp500-eps-stagnate-p-e-multiple-expansion/

Good read on collapsing profits

Bump

S&P warns more sovereign downgrades likely this year
reuters.com/article/us-ratings-sovereigns-downgrade-s-p-idUSKBN19X24G

Fed's Yellen says rate and portfolio plans on track, cautions on inflation
reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKBN19X1MX

Bored Traders on Tinder Are a Symptom of Wall Street Revenue Dip
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-11/bored-traders-on-tinder-are-a-symptom-of-wall-street-revenue-dip

The Bloomberg article is pretty good despite the clickbait title. Basically revenues are down–some by the double digits and tens of billions of dollars, and traders have nothing better to do than play Nintendo, and we might be in for a summer long market contraction unless "something blows up."

Please don't do this here, this word is my trigger

It's a real thing, but it's actually used by computer repair technicians to gain total control of the computer
youtu.be/grb-_xdqpEQ
This guy is a closet /g/ browser and explains everything

this. this society is hell, or a close approximation of it. It deserves to be burned just because it's ugly, not because I have any hope of a "new age" or whatever; almost ANYTHING would be better than this; cycles.

Noob here. Wouldn't the best thing to happen in China be an organized labor movement? Then Chinese workers would begin being able to get high wages, meaning the prices of the goods they produce for the West would skyrocket causing crisis in the advanced countries?

Yeah