What do you guys think will happen with Rojava in the future?

What do you guys think will happen with Rojava in the future?

After ISIS is finished, the Syrian regime will set it's sights on rojava, with it's current supporters not finding them worth the cost. It's doomed.

Sorry guys. Forgot my flag.

Once Daddy finishes using them as cannon they will be thrown to the wolves

DemCon ME

Invasion and or collapse.

I don't say this become I'm 'anti-anarchist' (anarchists are allies) but it's not possible for Rojava to resist the collective forces of global capital, let alone regional powers and wider geo-politics. Turkey will eventually force the US to withdraw support once Rojava is no longer of use in the conflict against ISIS, or Assad.

I don't say this because I'm 'anti-bolshevik' (Bolsheviks are allies) but it's not possible for the RSFSR to resist the collective forces of global capital, let alone regional powers and wider geo-politics.

it's true, though.

Nigga, wot. The Bolsheviks gained power in the midst of a global conflict. Syria is in completely incomparable conditions.

Is Erdogan really still in the US's orbit, or are the Kurds now a higher priority asset for the US's objectives?

After Daesh is dealt with, America will allow Turkey to invade and subdue them thus ending the glorious revolution.

USA will stop funding them, it will collapse, bookchin meme dies finally

demcon spreads throught the middle-east and then the world

then global communism and world peace

The SDF and Southern Front are clearly how the US is gaining a foothold in Syria. They realized that the moderate beheaders had no future so they're redoing their strategy.

The SDF will continue to play geopolitics to keep themselves alive. They don't need to take over all of Syria to be important, as long as they continue existing and radicalizing people they are doing a tremendous help. Once the war ends you're going to have 10,000s of veterans spreading into Turkey, and probably as many going into Iraq after Iraqi Kurdistan secedes and the KDP and PUK start a civil war.

NATO allies generally take precedence over disposable proxies.

They have secured so many advanced (ie. US) weapons now and are an actual effective fighting force unlike most of the Islamists in the region, I don't think they will be destroyed so easily.

Rojava will be the cause of an Enlightenment in the Middle East. Their revolution will spread to Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and elsewhere.

Their complete lack of air power would get them destroyed by regional powers like Turkey.

Fuck you and your pessimist bias

false equivalency in so many ways

Of course they cant win a stand up war but they will just go underground and fight guerilla style imo. If Turkey wants to destroy the Kurds it can, but it'll be a real big boy war with large casualities and I don't know if Erdogan can survive that.

The difference being that radicals are a diffuse group spread out over the entire region with funding coming from both private and state actors. While Rojava has hard borders and once Uncle Sam turns the tap off they won't have anywhere near the same level of funding or supplies they currently have access to.

That's probably what will happen but it's really difficult to maintain control of teritory while underground.

Sure, in that case Kurdistan the state will die, but the experience of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam tells us that Turkey will not win that war in the long run.

THIS

But on top of that, the Syrian refugees (in Europe) will play the biggest role in it, I believe. What I am inclined to believe is to happen is a permanent settlement in Europe (in particular Germany) for most of the refugees, 1-2 generations to grow up in the western countries, and a continuous correspondence between families in the Middle East and those who remained in Europe. Exchange of ideas will occur, illiterate rural parents will have educated children, some will return after this education, others would simply come to Syria for a heritage visit. Post-modernism will finally arrive to the middle east, coupled with Rojava's active initiative, will shake the social foundations of these societies, metastasizing from Syria to Iraq and Lebanon, eventually leaking into the Gulf states. I would go as far as to say that a lot of the Gulf monarchies will not survive past this century, and we may see more revolutions sweep the middle east, caused by societal agitation and enlightenment revelations.

Expect this to unfold in the next 30 to 50 years.

There will be no war, Erdogan might be delusional enough to want one, but if it happened it'd create an entire regional war. The Regime doesn't like the SDF, but it's not a direct adversary, and it's not the faction that started the war: it would not stand by and let Turkey occupy more of Syria, and it's clear that's what their plan is by what they're doing in North Aleppo.

Turkey successfully invading DFSNS is just unrealistic on some many levels, it would have to involve the US no longer giving a shit about the SDF when they're their main ally in the country, it would have to involve Turkey being brazen and insane enough to invade, and it would have to involve the Regime standing by and letting its country be occupied by its regional enemy.

nigga the human race probably wont even survive this century.

you're wildly optimistic

You're right, though. It will kick off a massive regional conflict.

The US doesn't care about them on an ideological level, obviously, but they're the only force that allows them to exert influence in Syria. Why would they go through all the trouble of helping them defeat ISIS just so Assad doesn't have to if they didn't have bigger plans?

nobody in the west can justify their NATO alley invading the secular, feminist, democratic society that many westerners know of and sympathize with at this point.
There is already significant mistrust in Western Europe against NATO ever since 9/11, and public opinions againt Trump and Erdogan aren't really better by now than Putin's.
TL;DR NATO doesn't need more negative publicity that danger the evil Russia narrative to appease Erdogan's fantasies

I don't believe that Erdogan gives a shit about NATO at this point or the west in general. Otherwise he wouldn't have shot down Russian jets, or started bombing the YPG in the first place. It seems to me that Trump or anyone else has no real control over him. For example he's scuttled Turkey's EU bid that was important to them until a few years ago.

ally with Iraq
ally with PUK
fend off Turkish attacks

covertly send fighters to Turkey
covertly send fighters to Kurdistan

prepare and hope for Turkish civil war sooner rather than later

Honestly what is most likely to happen. Maybe include "engage in the Iraqi Kurdistan Civil War".

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At the moment it's still a mutually beneficial relationship though, and much more important for Turkey than accession to the EU would have been. Without the west behind him, Turkey's economy(and thus his support base) would suffer dramatically, I doubt that even in his deranged mind this seems like a good idea.

...

The USA does not financially fund the SDC.

This most likely. Besides that they will become a coop capitalists and hopefully democratic region spreading enlightment values to the region. And offering an example that a different ME is possible.

Or they collapse into a completely capitalist one party region betraying its ideology while in constant feud with its neighbours and collapsing eventually.

checked


This is the best case scenario. However, they'll be under severe pressure from any future adversary – assuming it's a proper military. Perhaps Russia will fill the gap if the US withdraws support. They're under effective embargo not only from Turkey but Iraqi Kurdistan as well, and Iran IIRC. And the Syrian regime will be no friend to them. Their existence will remain precarious.


Not compared to the billions in arms that's found its way directly and indirectly to "moderates" and ISIS over the years; the arms don't matter as much as air support.


The Syrian army is barely holding itself together through casualties and desertion. It won't have the strength to fight a serious invasion by Turky, and besides that, Turkey is already on Syrian soil. This is a real wild card.


You're overestimating how many people know them as anything more than "the Kurds".

There is allways a deep ecologist lurking to spout his crap

Sounds like you don't understand what is at the root of our ecological crises

Imagine being this dillusional. The western public doesn't give a shit about Democratic Confederalism or Communalism, they just see the Kurds as some other ethnic faction fighting for independence in a cluster fuck of a civil war.

the western public don't even know who the kurds are

They'll compromise with assad for some federalism and more democracy. Assad would never go to war with them, he's lost enough men and resources and would gladly settle once the active rebellion is quashed.

Well, most people I talk to just categorize them as "just another ethnicity in the middle east bombing shit". For them, they are all sandniggers (they wouldn't use that word but you get the point).

People think in ethnicities and nationalities, not in ideologies. That's why some idiots still believe that Putin is a communist, because "Communism" is just seen as "whatever Russians do".

That's rather optimistic of you, user.

They haven't declared independence from Syria. Autonomy for Rojava is probably the route that well see be taken. Assad said he would retake every inch of Syria, this is a much easier way. The SDF and SAA relations are fairly cool at the moment. Both sides let the respective other move essentially freely through the territories. The SAA is too exhausted to fight the SDF for very little reason. It would get exponentially more difficult as they got into the more mountainous regions as well.

The Turkish army has proved itself to be quite the paper tiger. Not only are they boxed in and keep getting cock blocked by other countries in Syria, they actually can´t do anything right. They took 6 months to capture a pretty small city from a weakened ISIS contingent separated and cut off from the rest of ISIS territory. Beyond them taking forever they also basically destroyed the city see pic related. This was with Turkish air force and all. On top of all that the rebels that Turkey uses as a guise for their incursion into Syria keep fighting each other. You have Al bab rebels fighting each other and now the Levant front is trying to take control over Azaz. It has gotten really annoying seeing this shit from dumbass redditors since 2011.
The SAA has an airforce, so does Russia
this didnt stop ISIS from recapturing Palmyra after a Russian concert in the ancient Roman theater. please stop it.

They will continue to sell out to NATO and become another one of the Barzani holdings

If Rojava gets reintegrated into Syria, what makes it different from, let's say, Kerala?

It looks like the whole thing is just hyped by LARPing liberals. Nobody ever says "let's go to Rojava, bring an engineer, we are building a communist utopia!"

Except that Rojava is an actual US proxy which makes the whole thing even more shady.

I meant: Nobody ever says "let's go to Kerala"

exactly and PPG is actually a CIA operative too

And I'm saying it's nonsense for the US to do that.
Only Turkey and the KDP part of Iraqi Kurdistan. Once Mosul and Tal Afar is liberated than Rojava will be able to trade with Iraq, PUK controlled KRG, and Iran.

Rojava will likely not be fully reintegrated in Syria. The SDF will likely demand federalization with extensive decentralization at the very least, allowing the revolution to continue and its changes to stay. No one, especially the Kurds, are going to allow the former oppressive system to come back. They can effectively demand anything from Assad and if he wants them to stay apart of Syria he'll have to agree: once the SAA finishes with the rebels in 2 years it'll be in zero shape to engage in another war with the force that then will likely be the second largest while controlling half of Syria.

The Dream will die out there in the desert. What is now a vision in the future that brave people work, fight, and die to bring into the present will soon be relegated to the past. A fond, bitter memory. And years from now folks will have said that that they were silly and stupid for having that Dream, just as they say now. But that Dream is the only thing that has allowed something so bountiful in it's beauty to grow in those dry hills. It's like the brief shining of a light. The many Kurds, and Assyrians, and Arabs who are happy there now will soon be hurt, starved, cowed, and scared out of their wits, but they'll be able to remember a time when they were brave.

Fuck

So long as Saudi Arabia and Iran exist, there will always be new terrorist organisations popping up left and right. America needs justification for its wars/ to profit off of them.

ISIS is different from any typical radical militant group in the Mideast, because it seizes and holds territory. It's more like the LRA in Africa, a semi-sovereign warlord possession.

The US is perfectly capable of nonsense. We'll see what happens.

Best case scenario: Rojava and destroys ISIS with Syria and survives and becomes the center of some great project to advance ME culture to synthesize with Western values, eventually conditioning people in the ME to fully embrace secularism, or at least destroying Islamic fundamentalism, finally allowing genuine coexistence for a change and possibly lead to much bigger and better things. Basically

Worst case scenario: Rojava served its purpose as another pawn to keep the ME unstable; it is either betrayed before it can finish ISIS and be replaced by it or afterwards. Either way, it would threaten the idea of a stable ME and would be treated accordingly. After Rojava is either co-opted or outright destroyed itself, it will probably be replaced by yet another id-pol Muslim fundie group that will perpetuate the endless cycle of reaction, death and destruction while the majority of the world will be completely ignorant of the ramifications of this crucial period in ME history, and this cycle will continue until we kill ourselves off because the world will cling to a system that gives no regard to the large swaths of resources that could be taken better care of. As much as I want to be wrong, my bets are on the worst case scenario and I made sure to have "Ave Maria" at hand in case this is the outcome

Kurds haven't been oppressed by Assad. They don't harbor sentiment.

You know, other than 144,000 Kurds still living without Syrian citizenship and Kurdish being banned from being taught in school. Lets just forget about the time Assad and his goons massacred 30-100 Kurdish civilians during the Qamişlo‎ massacre.