ITT: we guess when the next crisis happens and why

ITT: we guess when the next crisis happens and why

If I had to take a guess, I'd say the tech/social media/silicon valley bubble is next on the chopping block

My bet is on the banks failing again. Last month saw half the monthly average in jobs added to the US economy, and just recently record numbers of retail store closings. It's only a matter of time until job losses catch up with the credit economy.

You know, there are mathematical equations that model all sorts of really complex things aren't there? Wouldn't it be possible to calculate the economic carrying capacity with the growing load of credit and the loss of actual income?

European banking sector
It's currently failing, the pressure point is going to be a combination of DB and the Italian banks, contagion will spread to the US

We'll go to war to distract

in the west, 'crisis' means 'things get slightly more expensive and people complain a bit more'

don't act like it's all rainbows and sunshine for western workers fam

i don't mean that. just that 'crisis' in the west is not much to get excited about. people still do as they're told and capitalism goes on

World War III is actually going to start because of some stupid shit like a bunch of people were bored and wanted to fuck around.

world war iii already happened. it was called the cold war

Fed raises interest rate, big recession again, pinned on Trump and dems have a big win in 2020

The permafrost melts and all of humanity is torched to death by our own failures as the ocean boils and the atmosphere becomes unbreathable.

>>>/reddit/

>>>/liberty/

but i guess it's not a world war 'cause only spics, niggers and gooks died

Agreee 1000%. Compared to what even our great-grandparents had to live through most people in the West haven't suffered shit.

Fuck Trump.

Assad and Putin were right.

Holla Forums was wrong again.

But Holla Forums prefer Assad and Putin to Trump

Or just stop being a faggot by derailing the thread with your pseud bullshit.

Full automation of the trucking industry leads to new heights of unemployment, accelerationists rejoice.

ok enjoy chatting about you imaginary 'crises' that will never happen

...

Woah dude but what if the crisis already happened. That crisis? Albert Einstein.

No, they are still shilling hard for Trump.

They make a new thread to Trump every day. Its like a cult.

capitalism's still here and not going anywhere soon. and the next 'crisis' won't change that

Weren't you about to leave?

North Korea nukes US fleet.

yes. just wanted to reply to that before i left

almost there fam

Assad>>>Trump
t.Holla Forums

You mean people lose their homes and need to worry about how theyre going to eat?

It would be awesome if this happened actually

if anyone had that information they'd make a fortune, Big Short style. But from history we know we can expect one at least every few decades or so (longest period without a crisis was 1939-1973 IIRC).

the same as happens every time. Too much capital invested, not enough money circulating in consumption.

As the scramble for markets intensifies, more and more marginal businesses and investments are created to try and grab every last cent. Consumers, unable to buy up all of production on their own, take out loans which form yet another form of investment. Like investment in the 'real' economy, capital flows to more and more marginal investments.

Soon these marginal debts start to fail, and marginal businesses cannot turn a profit and go bankrupt. The money circulated by consumers dries up as people are unemployed and the reduced circulation causes a vicious cycle of reduced consumption and layoffs that 'shakes out' all but the soundest, most profitable companies. A debt deflation happens simultaneously as the layoffs and closures force debtors to default on loans that were originally sound.

The central bank steps in by lowering the bank rate to 0 or negatives to try encourage investment, and buys up bonds, but any new money, instead of circulating, goes to pay off existing debts in a gigantic liquidity trap.


Not going to happen. Central banks target a rate of inflation and vary the interest rate inversely, even if it means massive unemployment. These days they're struggling to keep inflation at the 0% mark, and to do it they are using negative interest rates.

People like Roberts, Kliman and Shaikh are saying a crash similar to or perhaps bigger than the '08 one might hit us either late within the current decade or in the early parts of the next. TRPF is slowly but surely hitting a point where over-production is becoming sensible to the markets.

That would be one for the history books, on par with the Cimbrian War, and very bad for North Korea

Daily Reminder that the last time the Republicans had this much power in the government was before a global economic collapse.

Make America Great Depression again

Trump is going to be a 1 term president and he knows it, the approval ratings are below what Obama's ever were. His plan is to go to war with Syria and a bunch of other places to overthrow Assad. This is unpopular as fuck and cements that he wants a 2nd term but can't even by getting war screams from Americans. Bernie gets scrapped again and we get someone to the left of The Clintons and maybe Obama. This time has has quite the sound bite qualities that Donald does, but he is kinda wishy washy and what he thinks about the 2017 Syria war. My guess on the hypothetical Democrat being Joe Kennedy iii of Massachusetts and we will get another Kennedy in office.