Can any Frenchies tell if either of these /guys/ have any chance?

Can any Frenchies tell if either of these /guys/ have any chance?

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highly unlikely it's gonna be macron-lepen in the 2nd round and all bets are off

From what I can tell, Mélenchon is pretty popular with the left-leaning part of the youth.
For example /r/france has a majority of pro-Mélenchon posters. But more importantly, his videos on Youtube has a lot of views. I mean, he is the most popular French politician on the platform.
That said, I don't think that's enough for him to win. I'm a NEET since a few months, so I don't have a lot of contacts with a large part of the electorate, especially those who aren't millennials, own a house and pay taxes, for whom neoliberal capitalism has more or less worked well. I guess they are more attracted by Macron, Le Pen, or Fillon if they have strong cuckold fetish.
I don't know about Hamon. For me, nobody in their right mind would vote for the PS after the debacle of the Hollande presidency, but yet he is still credited with ~15% of vote intentions. Go figure…I guess it is because he is more left-wing than his predecessor, but, yeah, whatever.

Macron is so over-hyped by the French medias, as if they didn't learn anything from the US election and Brexit, it's crazy. That said, yeah, that is the most likely scenario.

Could the US scenario repeat itself fully in France with Le Pen winning?

Aren't Socialist-Left-Greens trying to work out some kind of coalition?

I know Le Pen will win but I hope Mélenchon will take it :/

what will be the practical political reality of a le pen victory?

They announced their intentions to do this then just got into a public slapfight instead. You know, typical leftist stuff.

Referendum on Frexit the next day, with all of France voting for leaving. On the third day EU falls apart. On the forth day leftist parties come out of nowhere and take over Europe.

This is unironically my fetish

Budget populo-socdem Sanders clone who's gone on record to say that he was inspired by Barney and soon after his rise rebranded to "democratic socialist" yet himself managed to embody literally nothing in Sanders, explaining his total unpopularity. Also, as with all socdems, he's been caught inflating his connection to Le Peuple using his wealth for media repurposing.

Self-described Trotskyist who spends more time delivering mail for his job and not fixing his window blinds than selling his party's newspapers. Completely irrelevant in politics; seemingly makes no effort in the bourgeois parliamentarian process of advertising himself, spreading the Trot message of revolution through permanent reformism, trying to look in touch while being old and irrelevant, etc. as his Trot peers do.

No. Le Pen (right populist) will either win with a fairly large margin or barely lose to Macron (classical liberal/conservative), and we'll either get a direct material shift to the right within the right, or a popular sentimental shift to the right that will in the next election manifest itself into right populism materially guaranteed.

The left today is dead, both in popularity, but especially in varied potential. The only ones with any kind of potential are Sanders-type social democrats who represent the same left-liberal capitalist symbolic politics as regular liberals but with a very populist tone accompanying their radical social democracy.

The only way forward, not only in France but (especially) the entire world as internationalists, is to systematically abandon all dead ends, be they left-liberal, anarchistic, Stalinist, etc. and to start building on a new proper communist movement for the 21st century that fully embraces the ineptitude of contemporary left wing politics.

Where does Hamon fit into any of this?

The only one outside of Macron with a slim chance. Hollande's U-turn in foreign policy and national defense to appease populist sentiments worked off on him too (Hamon is P"S", like Hollande) and he's scoring extra points with the left-liberals, lumpens and desperate working class folk with his hardcore UBI shilling too.

So with the talk of potential coalition, do you find it preferable for Melenchon to capitulate to Hamon or vice versa (knowing that to you neither is anywhere close to ideal but likely better than Macron). It sounds like you think Melenchon is worse.

Here *sniff* like Stalin said: "They are both worse"!

I'd honestly rather Le Pen won right now and get it over with as we see an immediate yet milquetoast period of right populism that is only on the symbolic level damaging the social good with discriminatory laws. Like with Trump, it instills fear in the liberal left which will be forced to recoordinate itself, defeat and send capital towards a social liberalism again, fail again and bring us to a paradigm in which no alternative capitalist persuasion or policy could bewitch the working masses, right or left, and a communist movement could actually start drawing the most class conscious members of the proletariat and form a real threat to capital's hegemony. Hamon TBH; extra dough for second hand paperbacks and a new armchair pillow would be most welcome.

Interesting, thanks for the perspective. I've really had no idea where people fell on the Hamon/Melenchon divide except for like 2 or 3 memeing frenchmen

And yeah yeah I know, full accelerationism above all

Hamon actually provides us with a concise expansion of capitalist welfare that is sanctioned by modern rising neoliberals like Gates and Musk. UBI is passable and completely conforming to the current paradigm of capital, unlike the traditional welfare state which draws too much upon gerrymandering with statuses of employed/unemployed and only providing inconvenient (for the bourgeois state) mediating procedures with lower state structures, employers and insurance companies: UBI not only solves this conundrum while relieving the state of further responsibility, but further conduces the dominant liberal ideology of putting all responsibility on the individual to spend, purchase and self-furnish (behind the step it sees necessary at this point of giving us all free cash to keep the system running at all, of course).

Don't take things the wrong way: a communist movement (not the left simply!) will need to develop by the time conditions are ideal; things will not "just happen". I hope until that point partisans of the left realize how they've been walking against the wall of a particular corridor of the maze al fucking ready so that we may instill a popular discipline premised on actually getting our shit together in theory before running off at the first opportunity to do something for its own sake.

The only way forward, not only in France but (especially) the entire world as internationalists, is to systematically abandon all dead ends, be they left-liberal, anarchistic, Stalinist, etc. and to start building on a new proper communist movement for the 21st century that fully embraces the ineptitude of contemporary left wing politics.




Would the Bogdanoff's allow them to win?

What the fuck is wrong with their faces?

Do you want to hear the full story or should I give you the quick rundown?

Whichever you think is more entertaining.

This is dangerous.

Le Pen is not Trump, she has brains. Le Pen will implement social programs and possibly entrench far-right support.

I hope you realize how dumb what you've just said is.



Are you trying to imply that LePen is not a right-winger, or that right-wingers never implement social programs?

So Bofdanommunism soon?

Assuming you mean social-welfare programs, isn't that good?
It took Nixon to go to China. Maybe it takes a rightist to deliver the kind of reform social democrats have backed down from since forever but especially since the 90s.