France election

I Marie Lepen to win.

she will pull out france of the European union.

and that will weaken the OTAN and will likely destroy the European union.

The Socialists are going to completely collapse in the first round. It's pretty much obvious. As for Filion, given that he's a raging Thatcherite I'm not sure how much the French will actually want to deal with him. With that in mind, Lepen is definitely guaranteed status in the runoff. If Mélenchon can surpass Filion somehow, he'd be in. If Filion beats /ourguy/, then FN is likely guaranteed the win. Filion is too extreme to ever replicate what Chirac did with Lepen the Elder, and FN these days could probably pick up socialist voters without any trouble.

There's literally no difference between Lepen and Filion on immigration/cultural issues, but the former is in the mainstream for economics while the former is not. Les Republicains is also a deeply divided party, and I don't see him as being the kind of man to unite it.

They've also got that independent left-neolib guy running and picking up bourgie socialist voters, though - I can't remember his name, but he's also a really bizarre factor in the running here.

It'll be interesting to see, but FN is in a historically amazing position.

Can't stenchon the MELENCHON

I want*

litteral russian funded.

that's not how it works, It's a 2 turn vote.

You used to be a Nazi, no? What happened?

Emmanuel Macron

Does frogland really have a shy-commie factor?
We just get shy tories in britbong

If I got it correctly:

Le Pen: 25% (she's going nowhere
Fillon: 24% (losing momentum a bit but stable)

Those two may go to the second round
Then there are

Marcon: 19% (how this fuckboi is that high up is a mystery to me, it's like the French people want to be oppressed by Porky)
Mélenchon: 15% (our guy, rooting for him, but he needs to gain 10% if he wants to go to the second round)
Valls: 10% (another fuckboi, seriously it's like they want to diverge votes from Mélenchon, since Marcon alone can't do it)

I predict le pen will win, just because libs said it wouldn't be possible

What would Mélenchon even benefit us? He'll just turn into an ineffectual SocDem the moment he's forced to operate within the capitalist system.

Macron suffers from the Clinton syndrom, polls are incredibly rigged in his favor like all medias.

If the press hates someone strong enough people won't answer them truthfully.
That's how Corbyn won two times. And there will be a shy Corbyn factor in Britain.

Destroying last shred of neoliberalism and starting a large scale left wing reform of europe.

Socdem is better than dying of starvation or alienation.

What policies of her's are facist?

I used to post on Holla Forums long ago, and way longer before that I used to frequent it.
But I never agreed with capitalism or a government with leaders. I simply posted there to promote pedo-stuff and because they reported real news back then and happenings such as the Palestinian conflicts.

Why don't the socialists just make a coalition and all vote for one guy?
Smash Le penn by 10-20%.

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Mélenchon is old, he already have a big enough politician career and he has no gain for being a president for 5 years. He will just destroy the 5th Republic and make the 6th Republic being a reality.

Macron is a young faggot who already see himself president, he literally left Socialist party to be sure to be able to present himself.

Socialist party is led by neoliberal shills and is in rubbles because of François Hollande.

Melenchon is farther left than those two """""left"""""" party.

I'm here to make my kind live better.

Unlike Greece, Germany can't push France just like a puppet.
France is a state with the power to shape and form.
Also it has strong trade unions, if they feel their guy going rogue, they will find a way to remind them.

On the other hand, the parliaments will be against him, so even as a president, he can still claim to be in opposition, until the legislative elections 2 months later.

I presume the 6th Republic won't outlaw private property in its constitution, so what benefits will that bring?

Parliamant will be useless.

ecological transition. Not everyone want to die in smog.

She's never going to leave the EU for fuck sake
She pushes some dumb ass rhetoric where she says she will 'renegociate european treaties' to end 'the tyranny of Bruxelles' except according to the 48th article of the EUtreaty you've got to have ALL the country agreeing to change for it to be possible, no other possibilities
As if Germany and its satellites like the Netherland are ever going to magically agree on stopping Germany's hegemony
ffs

SHE IS LIBERAL REEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Liberalism isn't just idpol and rosa killers

None.

It will be like in the French Revolution, a "Constituante". If the members of this constituante go full communism why not
Very unlikely tho

youtube.com/user/PlaceauPeuple/videos

he does a real good FAQ (english sub)

Ineffectual French socdems are pretty radical by our standards, and even if he does compromise a bunch he'll still do alright. Furthermore, a win by him is also something of a symbolic blow against the far-right. If he holds to his rhetoric and remains the anti-establishment guy he claims to be, then it might just break the FN's momentum in some ways.

Even if he loses, though, as long as he does well and builds an infrastructure/movement behind him like Bernie did the left might have better chances at winning local and parliamentary elections and clinching it next time around after people get disillusioned by the FN's systematic failure to deliver on their reactionary rhetoric.

you don't know what the 6th republic constitution will be like; It will be wrote by an assembly ramdomly chosen

He's young, rich and liberal.
Just like most of millennial journalists are.

He is indeed their guy.

here is a song about melenchon. A large part of the youth is with him.

youtube.com/watch?v=RDTxeY7akNA

Holla Forums was a mistake, those stupid faggots will destroy everything that is pure to have their shitty political image macros

i spend allot of time reading the comment section of rightwing journals everyday.
surprisingly, most people don't think LePen is fit for the job.
pro LePen comments are pretty rare even i right wing tabloids.

i thik her fan base is still the same fan base her father had decades ago.
mostly rural old people with no access to internet.
she's not gaining any momentum as far as i can see.

Indeed, her party started losing votes since 2014 in every election.

I doubt those old folks forgave her for couping her dad.

Oh I didn't knew about that.

Holla Forums brought so many normies onto 4chan it's fucking ridiculous. Now Chad Thundercock posts on 4chan because he knows he can yell about niggers there anonymously. It's fucking ridiculous. They've turned it into Facebook.

france is the n°2 of EU, Britain wasn"t really at any moment in the EU.

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Feels bad, man.

I don't know why i pressed new reply without saying anything
Look the graph at 'presidentielle 2002 (her dad)', 2007 (her) and 2012 (her), she's gaining electoral weigh

I unironically hope LePen wins.

At this point I don't even care about their beliefs. I just want them to stop acting like faggots who have never posted on a chan-style board before.

Usually, there is 40'000'000 voters in a presidential election.

many didn't, there is internal conflicts inside the party itself.
between the original FN partisans with Marion among them, and the new FN with Phillippot and Marine in charge.
Philllippot is actually the head of the party now, he writes the programs, Marine and her jewish bf are just there to make speeches.

this graph is not weighted. and doesn't take into account the fact that there are simply more people in France since 1974

thats ridiculous man

Marine LePen is just the pretty face.
German liberals used a lot of these during the European election and some state elections.

To get to the second turn usually you need 9 million, she probably isn't far with the actual government

But i don't think she'll win, just saying she IS ganing weigh

Phillippot is the head of the """left""" side of the party, he goes on left leaning tv shows to say that his party isn't the evil entity the media say it is and he throws some social reformism vibe to get the working class that used to be commie leaning to vote for Le Pen

There is also Marion-Maréchal that is the symbolic head of the more conservatist (and sometimes openly fash and pétainist) side

Why is France still tolerating these traitors?

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symmetric enough to be 6/10
Make her too pretty and people will see through the ruse.

Would you fuck hatefuck Marion Holla Forums?

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHAH

If FN comes into power I assume they will go after trade unions and the left as well as refugees of course. Maybe some of thier actual policies would be disastrous I don't really know. Could that start a civil war or is it just some fantasy or empty threat?

TOUT LE MONDE DETESTE LA POLICE

oui

last year, a labour law literally made social movement of occupation of places.

Last year, there were report of insubordination of police.

I think people are being overdramatic, Marine has watered down FN, so they are not as edgy as years ago, so even if shits hits the fan for whatever reason, then FN won't be a main cause, but at best a factor.

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In before you fucking reply about how 18-25 is irrelevant to the politics in France, you have to realize the 18-25 have A FUCKING HUGE influence to the French society than anything else, even 4chan is not that big in the USA compared to the 18-25 in France.

except the French election is in two round and you can be sure as hell that every other party will team up against her.

come on people, Trump was an accident, he got elected not because most people voted for him but because of an American electoral loophole.
he didn't get more vote than fucking Hillary (the most hated politician alive) hell he didn't even get more vote than his predecessor, Romney who was imo way more qualified.

you guys need to stop eating /piol/ype memes

What happened with Vive la République ?

France is like some sort of topsy-turvy land.

You mean TF1 and BFMTV right?

wtf I love France now

t. Adrien Desport

French twitter is on the other hand full of raging rightwingers

wtf I love France now

he also got a pretty big youtube channel
youtube.com/channel/UCk-_PEY3iC6DIGJKuoEe9bw

biggest french youtube politic channel by the way

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I live in a german puppet state and we have a maoist party who is something like 20% in the poll in my region (wallonia)

Isn't Wallonia a collapsed industrial area though? It makes sense they'd go left there. Here in the nation to your north, the economy basically revolves around being a very autonomous German port and banking, whilst the entire political ideology revolves around compromise as the highest possible virtue. The so-called Socialist Party even considered changing its name to the Social Party a while ago. Any politician who'd propose something seriously Left wing would be laughed out of the room.

Fuck twatter

Holy shit, it has English subtitles.
Subscribe!

Kek works in mysterious ways.

We are a completely broken area, yes

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This makes 44% for the broad left vs. 49% for the right.
We all now the RPR UMP Republicans will win by a landslide against Le Pen in the second turn anyway.

I actually just included the guys with double digits in their percentages.

Beside we have nukes…

Problem is, old people makes up the biggest demography in France, and they vote reactionary in droves.

No. Le Pen's voter base is young, native French working class people with low education. They don't read classic right-wing newspapers or any newspapers in fact. People reading stuff like le Figaro are old and fairly well-off petits bourgeois. They have always voted for the establishment right and don't like le Pen much.

She won't be able to do much. She lacks senior civil servants among here party (a bit like Trump but much much worse) to promote to key positions. She'll have to rely on the current networks of senior civil servants in the various ministries. France isn't really a democracy. Senior civil servants hold the reality of power. They are highly politicized and heavily lean towards the liberal left. This situation has been reinforced by decades of promoting like-minded people only. Think entryism for the liberal left. It means her orders will be silently ignored or half-assedly implemented.

This works both way. Melanchon faces the same problem as his own party also lacks senior civil servant support. He'll probably be able to pass policies that match with those of the liberal left (opening the gate for even more immigration, appeasement towards Islam) but he'll have a hard time pushing policies that would actually go against capitalism.

Although the Euro election is an anomaly, overall it's pretty clear that the FN does best around the presidential elections, and that their totals vary wildly from that to on-the-ground municipal and canton stuff. From that, it follows that they're essentially a protest party that people go to when they're pissed off about the other alternatives. If the Communists continue to be limp-dicked, the Socialists are deeply unpopular, and Les Republicains continue to be completely undesired, then naturally they'll do well. However, if Melenchon does nicely and Macron remains the ineffecual dipshit we know them to be, we might actually see /ourguy/ do really well. With any luck, his popularity will also pull Unsubmissive France and the Left Party forwards as well.

Are you implying that if Melenchon and Le Pen ended up in round two, the assorted humanoids of the Socialist Party wouldn't take Le Pen over an actual leftist? I think you underestimate the pure stupidity of the French pseudo-left.

Let's be honest, Jacobins ARE b e s t

If she actually did go after the unions in a serious way, then with any luck we'd see a repeat of Nuit Debout but with support from desperate libs as well. If the students alone almost toppled De Gaulle in 68, I'm pretty sure that a united left and centre could really do the job as well. Historically, the Army has also been relatively apolitical since the failed coup in the 50s so civil war would be unlikely. But a full-blown Parisian street insurrection? That's a bit less implausable.

pics ENTIRELY related

[citation needed]
bfmtv.com/politique/regionales-qui-sont-les-electeurs-du-front-national-934843.html

i'm implying that if LePen and a dead cat ended up in the second round, most people would vote for a dead cat.

she has the incompetence of Trump while being a despicable political bitch like Hillary.

while many people may agree with her on some point, most still think she's unfit for the job.

Can someone explain the difference between Unsubmissive France and the New Anticapitalist Party and how is one better than the other?
Do people prefer Unsubmissive France simply because it's more popular and more likely to win?

Have you read you own link? It specifically states that senior citizens are the least likely to vote for her. The link also states that middle-age voters are slightly more likely to vote for her than twentysomething but even that taken into account the stereotypical FN voter is still a young, low-income and low-education white working-class man.

Why do people think Le Pen will win? I mean I know polls haven't been reliable lately but they don't really look too promising for her.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017#Opinion_polls_for_expected_second_round_of_voting

i posted a link to disprove your statement
they aren't. they're mostly middle aged.

stop twisting shit around

Polls predicted that
Making polls is on the same category as making horoscopes right now

Npa are fucking sectarian trot. For example in 2001 There were 3 trot candidate to the presidential élection

I hope this is shitposting. The people associated with those posters were the worst scum to ever tread the Parisian pavement. They are now all the CEOs, business leaders, liberal intellectuals and corrupt politicians in power. If the next "insurrection" has to be guys like that we're utterly fucked.
Also they were never even close to toppling de Gaulle, nor did they want to. All they wanted was less stuffy mores to be able to fuck their girlfriends i.e. they were liberals. They had zero revolutionary potential from the very start.

You're still wrong

ouest-france.fr/elections/regionales/regionales-quel-est-le-profil-de-lelectorat-front-national-3900982

This is more recent and from a more reliable source.

Fuck off. Mai 68 isn't just edgy student. Learn about the strikes and insurrection.

Those four posters are those of the edgy students though.

What an ugly face

Oh come on, national US polls were accurate and all of 3 state polls were inaccurate. There is no equivalent "state" polls in france it's all one population to track

Sometimes you flip a coin and get two tails in a row stop with the nonsense

There's a lot of stuff that polls accurately predicted, too.

Vaguely translated for our non-francophone comrades.
The tendency was building up these last years, but it is confirmed now.
The Front National gets 55% of workers' vote, far ahead of the PS* and the Republicans.
Front National's votes surpass even abstention, which accounts for 51% of the working class' votes

*Parti Socialiste

There's something I'm not understanding here. If the FN has got 55% of the working class' vote, but abstention goes up to 51%, then it means the FN has got a mere 26% of the working class' vote, which is quite far away from 'surpassing abstention as BaitFM TV wants us to believe. That, or somehow the working class' vote is equal to more than 106% of itself.

So will the FG replace the PS as the main left-of-centre party from now on?

The word is meaningless if the FN can be considered liberal.

Yes he fucking did, he got 2,000,000 more votes than Romney. That graph is falsified. Not to come across as a Holla Forumstard, I just don't like seeing disinfo propagated.

They did get their way though, didn't they? De Gaulle was installed and the Fourth Republic dissolved.

If the polls don't move substantially between now and May, Le Pen will need a MUCH bigger polling error than those causes. She's 25 points behind.

because it goes your way?

any reliable sources?

fucking delusional.
The party is neoliberal Idpol because the electorate are neoliberal idpolers, unlike the US, actual socialist alternatives exist.

This tbh

The actual vote counts are pretty easy to find, however here is a decent source. Trump got 62,979,636 votes to Romney's 60,933,504.
cookpolitical.com/story/10174

Yeah and the left is going to have to choose between a right wing nut that wants privatization and austerity, but is for limitless immigration and the EU, and Le Pen which offers everything that the center left wants but wants to limit immigration and leave the EU.

What the fuck are you saying?

youtube.com/watch?v=SBnXCotdkaE
That feel when no French new right gf ;_;

It wasn't falsified intentionally just out of ignorance– it was made before the votes were fully counted.

Honestly if a real socialist can't capitalize on the situation in france then i'll have trouble not losing all hope.

If not in france with actual socialist options then where?

I don't know why people expect the far left to reach power in a rich country. Gone are the days when the most industrialized power contained immense misery within their own borders, so there's no social pressure for change anymore. So long as Porky keeps his sweatshops and slave plantations in the third world, the rich countries won't give a damn. Despite this shift, as in 1917 socialism has a better chance of arising out of a peripheral, little-industrialized country.

It's going fascist, but it's better that way. The fascists will fuck shit up and there can be a good resurgence in the left.

I'm goin to repeat myself from the other thread :

Everyone will vote against her in the second turn if she make it(she probably will), the hatred of the FN run deep and the right wing voter base will go with Fillon(maybe Macron for the non conservative liberal) and I'm pretty sure in case of a LePen vs Fillon second turn a lot of leftist will vote Fillon to make sure she doesn't pass, LePen will at most have 30% to 40% (depending on abstention) of the vote

The only scenario where she might pick up votes is in a LePen vs Melenchon second turn, mostly because media are full horseshoe about her and Melenchon the spooky communist

I mean I don't expect it, hence the whole "losing hope" thng

Can Hamon beat Valls in the PS leadership contest?

For now Hamon is leading, remember there is a second turn, probably Hamon vs Valls, I think Hamon will win the primary.
Also the primary is having a low turnout

I don't want to shout victory for Hamon too soon and I don't know Hamon very much so I could be wrong, but Hamon will win the primary because Valls is a neoliberal just like Sarkozy and many leftists see him as a parasite for that so a newfag like Hamon is more than welcome for them even if some people are laughing to him being a newfag.

lmaooooo I love this election

Is Melenchon on the radar at all?

In terms of the failed coup, their main aim was to get De Gaulle to defend their position in Algeria. As soon as he took power, though, he both purged them and withdrew from Algeria which is why the OAS tried to kill them. So no, they didn't really get what they wanted.

That's just a little historically illiterate, fampai. The point was actually to get rid of De Gaulle, which is why they stormed the government buildings, beat up cops, set up their own propaganda apparatus and decentralized governance, linked up with the overly cautious Communists and the CGT, and actually drove De Gaulle out of Paris and sent him to the point where he was seriously considering sending the Army in to restore order. People shit on May '68 because it failed. Pompidou and the socialists were on the verge of forming a new national government as well. In the end, De Gaulle outmaneuvered them, baited the anticommunists into fighting his street warfare for him, and literally tore up all the paving stones so that nobody could throw them at cops anymore. You can blame their failure on any number of factors ranging from their lack of organization to the passiveness and shyness of the institutional left in the face of actual revolt, but what you can't possibly deny is that its intentions were radical, and that it was part of a global wave of socialist revolutions.

Yeah, most ended up abandoning the cause as they got older, but attempting to deny that their intentions in the moment were entirely genuine is kinda knee-jerk.

That's interesting, actually. Maybe I've just bought into the memetic warfare a bit too hard, but from my limited knowledge both labour market deregulation and immigration seem highly unpopular in France at the moment, and it seemed kinda natural that people would go FN because of that. I'll admit that my precise knowledge of the French situation isn't the best rn.

why are so many lefties so selfish at the same time?

Praying for Le Pen if it comes down to her or Fillon.

By means of British comparison, the Hayek inspired economic liberals did far more to ruin the country than fascists ever did. Fascists (indirectly) gave us the NHS, after all.

That's not exactly what I meant.
English isn't my first language though, it can explain the poverishness of my posts , nah?

That's not even the worst thing. The worst thing is that the normalfags pretend that 4chan was always for them. The average American is literally a psychopath.

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You are pretty retarded if you think you can have sucessful revolutions in this century like you could have in the last 2.
If your little commi revolt gains traction you have x amount of geopolitical rivals thinking their theeth into your defenseless society to shit it up with proxygroups for their own gains, just look at syria.
The key for any group, political, ethnic or religious will be its ability of reproduction/inhibition of enemy demographics and young male output to pressure interest groups into electing their representatives into power.

Mélanchon is dead.

And Marine is far, far from fascist. Can't wait for Marion though, she's closer to her father and from a Nazi idelogy.

Also, THE MELENCHON HAS BEEN STANCHON

B O U R G E O I S

D E M O C R A C Y

N O

P L S

Yes ofc the noble Taliban had nothing to do with deobandi influence from Pakistan and did not relie on the paki secret service.
The did not get prepped up as freedom loving muhajedeen either by the US against gommunism either.
You are pretty desperate if you take tribalist mountain warriors who kill their neighboors for listening music and still have not come to a point were they have total control over the state after thousands of pashtuns died as an example of a free independent revolution.

Neither because neither a fascist nor commie is on the ballot despite what whining liberals on one side and retarded conservatives on the other side scream

I don't believe your filthy lies. Where are the proofs?

Melenchon > Hamon >>>>>>>>>>>> Steaming pile of shit > Le Pen > Fillion > The rest

communist/socialist parties are the biggest counter-revolutionaries

praise accelerationism

Just look at the results of the left's primaries.

It will be either that filthy kike Valls or Hamon. I'd like to see a Marine vs Mélenchon, but it looks like he won't make it.

like i'v said while the FN may be correct in pointing some problems, they have no viable solution, their staff are notoriously incompetent and have fucked every place they were in charge of and their economic program is literal suicide.

Fillion, the ultra liberal will bring us Melonchon 5 years later.
i don't think there will be anything left after LePen

Careful what you wish for.

Thatcher nearly gave the UK the moderate-ish socdem John Smith. (Right wing "on the whole" compared to James Callaghan, who in turn was sort of in the Labour right in 1979, but the center had moved right globally from 1979 to 1992.)

Then Smith died of a sudden heart attack and we got Tony Blair, a man so right-wing that Thatcher outright endorsed him, solidifying all of her positions to the point even Corbyn probably couldn't scrub the blood off the country.

France is terrible at having a republic so I'm forced to assume that the answer is whoever will reinstitute the monarchy.

Seriously they're on the fifth French republic that's fucking insane.

Is Hamon bad? Seems like the media is already smearing him Corbyn-style so I'm not sure what to think

Hamon is the socdem, but there is no way he can win, his party is dead because of François Hollande.

Why vote for him when you have Melenchon, which is far far lefter than him and has 5% more in the poll ?

Yeah Melenchon is of course way better just trying to get some overall perspective

Not really. The third republic fell to foreign invasion and the fourth was reformed peacefully into another republic. France has been quite stable since 1870.

You're aware Mélenchon run on it's own, right?

explain the process moving forward please, I'm a scrub when it comes to french politics.

what are the contests left and how will they be decided?

Fillon is being accused of paying his wife €500,000 of public money for work she never performed. Is this a big deal?
theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/25/francois-fillon-faces-call-explain-payments-wife-mp-funds-france

I don't get it, it's like the dream pick? If it's that easy hit that vote button tbh fam

then*

Depend, one ministr had been BTFO for renting a mandated appartment.

You basically have the greens, the Left Front, the Communists and the PS and a few others. Usually, each one have it's own primary or designation process for nominating a candidate in the presidential election.
All you have to get is the signatures of 500 mayors to be allowed to run.
The PS tried to make a primary which would include all of the left, but after all the shit the PS did, even their Green pets didn't trust them on this one.
Tbh, the concept of a primary is quite redundant in France when there is already the first turn of the presidential election.
It was mainly an attempt by the ps to avoid competition from th left of them and avoid getting BTFO by the National Front i guess.

yes, he better prove that she actually did work otherwise his campaign is over.

Come on people, this isn't helping.

if LePen is elected i swear to god i'll eat my underwear.
France isn't the US, the situation is completely different.
-there is no electoral college to favor the hillbillies.
-LePen isn't running against a despised politician (like Trump did)
-she doesn't have the benifit of the doubt on her side.
Trump was a wild card, people suspected he was an ass, but there was no confirmation.
with LePen things are different, the FN is decades old, everyone knows what its about, and while the party has unconditional support from a decent portion of the population it is DESPISED by an even larger portion.
if she gets in the second turn, everyone will go to vote just to stop her.
it happened back in 2002, Chirac was elected by 82% of the voter, the kind of score only dictators get.

Jus looked this up, Le Pen was beaten back then by an amazing number.

This is interesting can some french speaker update us on all the scandals and shit

bump