By now we've all seen machines and software slowly encroach upon one field after another that were thought to be strongholds of human ingenuity and dexterity. There's no getting around it at this point, widespread automation is coming and it will be a big deal. Something Trump has spoken about at length is bringing manufacturing work back to the US from overseas, which is and will be a huge benefit to the middle and lower classes. It also deals a blow to our geopolitical rivals, China in particular. But how long will these jobs last? It stands to reason that having the manufacturing work here to begin with will be more than helpful to transition into more automated factories that China would struggle to match. But where does this lead in the medium/long term?
I really don't see an answer for a future where most work can be done by a robot or an AI. People insist it will make new jobs for repairing, building, or designing the machines but that's temporary. And even then that still won't even come close to replacing all the jobs that are lost, you'll need a handful of repairmen to service a shitload of machines that made obsolete an even greater number of low-skilled workers. And in time the robots will be able to service other robots and transport themselves between locations, or be transported by other robots.
People say well, then learn a skill. Start a business. And yeah that'll work for a while too, but it still won't replace all the jobs lost. But let's say you're fine with the huge increase in unemployment and somehow there's no widespread social unrest so you can go to your college or open your business without much trouble. How long is that gonna last? Advanced machines and machine learning programs can already replace doctors in some cases, and in time they will be superior (as long as you have electricity and maybe the internet). Lawyers will be able to be automated eventually, hell they may even need computers to write the systems of laws so incredibly intelligent programs can't as easily find loopholes in them. Programs will be able to design and build new machines more efficiently and effectively than any human. So here's a number of skills being knocked out by robots pretty quick. Engineering, manufacturing, medicine, law, and even scientific research could be automated in some fields (to a degree).
As for starting a business, imagine a program is made that can invent or locate business opportunities better than almost every human. Just like today where elite bankers have ultra-sophisticated trading systems which make them obscene amounts of money in the stock markets, a similar utility could be built for making money from any digital based online business or service. You might say well that's okay, just build a business that offers some physical product or service. And yeah that niche might last a little longer than the online businesses being run by programs and funneling money upwards, but they too will be replaced in time. A similar program to identify opportunities, and robots to create the products and ship them. Automated warehouses already exit. Probably the final argument for making a businesses to remain useful and productive during the rise of automation is making some sort of craft, artisan good for the market that will inevitable spring up for goods made by human hands. And that's something, but I bet even within that realm you'll be competing with shady companies that actually use robots to make their shit and intentionally put defects in them to make it seem not machine-made. And regardless, it will still be a tiny market that only a handful of people will be able to remain competitive in.
But what about creative work? Could robots/programs write music or make art? The kneejerk reaction is to say no, they can't, but it's a little more complicated than that. Even now there's at least one AI composer I know of that you'd have trouble differentiating from a human composer if you didn't have pre-existing knowledge, or maybe if you had an excellent ear for music. But in time, they will improve. Computers could learn what particular patterns human find enjoyable or profound in their music and learn how to create different patterns of these patterns or how to "play" them in different ways to effectively create new music. As for physical art, painting, sculpture, etc that's slightly more difficult but still completely within the realm of possibility. Some people think that true art could only be conceived and created by a human mind, but that's a philosophical question we won't get into here. All that matters (in that case) is whether the end viewers/customers of the art perceive it as art, or as created value, or whatever. Whether the machine made art is or isn't technically art by any definition doesn't help a person trying to make a living creating art if nobody buys their shit.
(pt 1/2)