Is civilisation heading for a COLLAPSE? Mathematical historian predicts political turmoil will peak in the 2020s
The rise and fall of civilisations can be predicted by a simple equation, and our civilisation is in for a fall some time soon. This is according to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut, who says mathematics can explain human behaviour far more accurately than you might think. And if his calculations are correct, the world should be prepared for years of political turmoil that will peak at some point in the next century.
A professor of Ecology and Mathematics from the University of Connecticut, Peter Turchin has led the development of a cross-disciplinary subject called 'cliodynamics'. 'Cliodynamics is a new 'transdisciplinary discipline' that treats history as just another science,' Professor Turchin says. He started out using maths to predict human activity from 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E. Then three years ago, using similar models, he began to forecast the future. 'My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s,' he says. 'The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast. 'We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak.' Exactly what will happen when this 'peak' occurs is unknown, and Professor Turchin says the theory does not predict events. but trends. He said the turmoil would be driven by a process of 'elite overproduction' in which the number of rich, elite people in society grows larger and they become ever more distant from those poorer.
Cliodynamics is about broad social trends and deep structural causes of these developments, he says. 'It did not predict that Donald Trump would become the American President in 2016. 'But it did predict rising social and political instability. 'And, unless something is done, instability will continue to rise.' The academic also predicts 'the stagnation and decline of living standards and declining fiscal health of the state, resulting from falling state revenues and rising expenses' would bring about a potentially terminal slump. However, Professor Turchin said that his theories could actually help us escape this grim fate by observing trends and stopping them before they cause problems for society. 'The descent is not inevitable,' he continued. 'Ours is the first society that can perceive how those forces operate, even if dimly. 'This means that we can avoid the worst – perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether.'
yes. Your average empire lasts 250 years. America is 244 years old.
Jaxon Collins
Jokes on you, many of us saw this happening many years ago without any models, and became /fit/. Right now I am still army fit. Just need moar weapons.
and as people said elsewhere, I should also be thinking of local communities, problem is of course that they are cucks.
Nathaniel Campbell
None of them want to admit that though but it does make sense. Thats the perfect amount of time for the strong willed founders to have all their ethics and convictions bred out by their lazy descendants who coasted along on the hard work of those who came before.
Ironically we made it too easy on ourselves and thus made it so we're set to backslide hard. If you crazy fucks have children don't ever make it easy on them.
Course this dumbfuck in the OP is a coward, he HAS to know what the real factors are and won't name them, if he did that he'd lose his position after all.
Anthony Thompson
Civilisation is set of rules. Western, post renaissance civilisation already collapsed 100 years ago. Collapse of socialism civilisation we live now will be welcomed, just like Romans welcomed collapse of Roman Empire.
Josiah Carter
I would say this is the collapse of the Roman republic and the rise of the Roman empire. We are gradually seeing the destruction of socialist society into a traditionalist culture, so yes it is right that the civilization would collapse, but it would be a peaceful transition where the chicks are culled and ideologies changes back to traditionalism.
Dominic James
You are an imbecile. Society or social behaviour and what results out of that economically is like a computer game where certain meta strategies evolve that makes you "win" the game. It is transfered by all sorts of information, media, your peers or the general state people see their state in. Just like trust, it is not a certain concept that you can say, it is more like an inherent thing, like a movement in sport where you dont really think about it, it evolves naturally. And the psy and tech ducks will have a really hard time to green door the cattle :^).
Aaron Stewart
Sorry, meant to say cucks, sorta like how Brutus and his fellow senators were culled after Caesar's assassination.
Michael Hernandez
Conservatard detected. Go back to /r/The_Donald, cuck.
Jonathan Allen
Nothing is purely equivalent, it's just my observation of the trends. By your argument one would also say that the 250 year rule would be an inaccurate measurements for the current climate of America. I don't care about whether you judge me or trust me, it's an observation from my group. Goodbye.
Justin Jenkins
Confirmed for autism.
Adrian Wright
...
Jack Gonzalez
It has nothing to do with the timeline, it is more like a timeline for certain frameworks to emerge in which the information passes to people in general. Imagine a working in a chinese factory, you improve "yourself" but the gain you have is minimal, noone will buy into that. If society comes to a point where risk taking and self improvement has little benefits for the majority of the people it will devolve in every aspect. Then you see the rise of numales, hypermorality, hyper security and all the other aspects. Just look at the refugee crisis, ususally people would revolt agains this violently or with a much bigger pushback, now we have apathy because not being apathic to it has downsides and no upsides for the invidiual itself. Or see the press, they are called lügenpresse because their "view" or their representation of the general public is so far off that it is almost a different universe with no real connection to what the general public opinion really is. They photograph kids with their mothers whereas most people experience a shitload of healthy young men coming into their country. They preach hypermorality with an impossible standard, well they always did this but now the general perception will create a lot more friction with those views once other aspects of society are on a decline.
Nolan Cruz
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Grayson Gray
The U.S. at least isn't going anywhere. Europe might blow up but the ZOG machine isn't.
Gabriel Ross
The sooner the happenings happen the sooner we can recover, the longer we prolong the inevitable the less chance we have of ever recovering.
Asher Brooks
In America, we can have a new golden age by purging all non whites, and having a natsoc like state. Then we pursue space exploration and become the masters of our galaxy. Nothing is impossible
Brody Walker
Look
Jonathan Thompson
Hitler's Germany was the pinnacle of western civilization. If allowed to continue unhindered, they would be colonizing the solar system right now
Ryder Flores
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Jaxson Bennett
You need to go back.
Bentley Howard
you are not being serious are you?
Alexander Evans
It's like, you know, your opinion
Not an argument
Jack Sanchez
Oh you are serious… ok well take the time to read what the man himself had to say on the subject.. in Picture form for your convenience.
Jordan White
This doesn't surprise me, the happenings seem like they come quicker and quicker.
This guy uses historical models to predict world changing events. IE crumbling of an empire or major revoultion. Written in 1996 I believe, and he predicted a major event for the Unites States between 2015-2030.
Carter Perez
The only good socialism is National Socialism.
Juan Price
Predicting things vaguely occurring 15 years in the future is lame and easy. This applies to OP too.
Justin Bell
So, translation: Jews will only grow in power and boil the marxist water even more, the best time to act is right now? I personally think we're a bigger authority on society-shaking events than him, we have nicknames for them, we laugh at them, and we bring out the popcorn and data for each individual one.
Luke Myers
...
Nathaniel Roberts
stopped reading right there, easy to predict a major happening over a long period of time
Xavier Taylor
...
Colton Walker
3 years from now.
Jace Gray
So it has been written; so let it be done.
Julian Wright
Well spotted. These are the people that want our children eschew all common sense and cultural knowledge in favor of STEM; because muh formula.
Angel Hernandez
He was referring to Marxist society in saying that. Yes, I know, Marxist socialism =/= National Socialism, but give the kid a break.
Ryder Ortiz
...
Gabriel Anderson
Autistic people have always tried to make themselves appear more relevant. The whole concept of IQ is by and large a Jewish-Autistic system to artificially inflate their usefulness.
Jose Russell
There's absolutely nothing wrong with "organic" socialism, see and . The only people who have a problem with it are commies and liberals of whatever stripes.
Jaxon Johnson
HOW IS NO ONE ACKNOWLEDGING THESE TRIPS
Anyway, Peter Turchin is good. His book War and Peace and War is a really accessible introduction to his cliodynamics. There are more rigorous mathematical books he has also written. The feature of "elite overproduction" is a feature of late stage civilizations that was also identified by the 20th century historian John Glubb. From my own understanding these social shifts are very "seismic," in the sense that they release huge amounts of pressure very quickly that were built up gradually for a long time. Hence very small "cracks" spread throughout the social infrastructure can join up and become one huge society-rending break before anyone realizes it's happening. I expect it to be some small and unexpected thing that catalyzes the final release of pressure.
Grayson Adams
Well at least I have a few more years to get in shape. I started last year, but fell into a depressed rut and backslid and lost all my progress. Its good to know I'll have a bit more time to correct all this. I just have to find motivation and drive that wont fade over time.
As for the actual substance of the post… yawnfest. We already knew all this shit, and we also know no one will listen. We've been preaching shit like this for years, and no one in "normal" society listens. Sure we have each other, and we draw in more each day, AND we've been successful at converting a few previous leftists into the fold. But its a trickle of water flowing in the opposite direction in what is otherwise a raging river flowing against us. And even then not all of us are on board with the same intentions, some want acceleration, to let it all break and burn and start over, some want to salvage what we have and fix it before it breaks completely to slow down the process and turn back the clock at the same time.
Sure, the wise user is preparing for the "let it burn" end, but also trying to help/meme the "fix it" end. But these arent everyone, but even if it was again we're still a fringe minority in this nation that is hell bent on its own destruction, many who dont even see it as destruction but rather "liberty" on the right (letting the degenerates choose to be degenerate and live their way, not realizing its destroying society over time) and a path towards their marxist utopia on the left (no need to explain the stupidity there). Then theres us, the kind who read stuff like in OP and consider it and talk about it, and then what we try to share with others is overwhelmingly ignored or drowned out in one way or another.
We all know this is happened, known it for most of our lives intuitively, and been able to give word to it for nearly a decade now for most of us. Another "professor" talking about it wont change anything, because all the marxists surrounding him WANT it to happen, so they'll discredit him, or ignore him. His ideas wont spread, the MSM wont report it, the body politic wont act on any of it… so we sit, and continue to wait, drinking leftie tears and mining salt from all sides, simply biding our time until the collapse, and none of this is new
John Rodriguez
It sure is a good thing our constitution was made with having multiple revolutions in mind.
WE BRITANNIA NOW ALL HAIL BRITANNIA
Caleb Adams
I think we should blockade China and cull them down to 10%. They will pollute whole planet, they made most of China unhabitable and now they fucking up Africa, like we dont have nigger problem already
Joseph Thompson
Do the same with India. #PurgeChIndia
Luis Wood
I don't get why Britannian politics was supposed to be a bad thing tbh fam I mean I get why Lelouch hates Britannia but thats personal shit with his father. I still can't believe CY+2 actually gave us Geass season 3
Jordan Campbell
Can we make them fight over water sources in Tibet? They will nuke themself.
Jeremiah Stewart
Pakistan would get involved then we could get rid of them too.
Zachary Nguyen
Indians are trying hard to depoopolate their streets and slums tho. Its not like they are not able and willing if given some decades
Ethan Barnes
Meanwhile they continue to be a problem in every nation they poopulate.
Owen Reed
I can't believe I made it that far into your shitpost
Gavin Edwards
Excerpt from The Tradition of Scientific Marxism, by (((John Holloway))):
Gas the fuck out of yourself, and take the neo-commie pseudokike with you.
Nathan Davis
As much as I love Code Geass, Lelouch is an SJW.
Jace Parker
YO WHERE THE WHITE WOMEN AT!
Jaxon Ward
Eh, I kind of like the Chinese. At least many of them are pretty traditional and xenophobic to a degree.
Justin Long
America will collapse before or on 2020. Prepare yourself, we need what's left of our race to be the strongest, best and brightest so we can forge a National Socialist state.
Cap this if you want.
Nathaniel Hill
Pick one.
Ryan Price
I don't think it will be your typical collapse though, sure shit will shutdown for a few months, but there will be a HUGE political movement, we will rebuild this nation from the ashes Trump's 2nd Term will be under the 4th Reich.
Carter Hill
Lulu dindu nuffins. He a gud boi. He wuz jus tryina turn Nunnally's life around n shiet.
Chase Nguyen
Well said.
The internet will probably save us but we got to stop our youths being corrupted by the marxist education system.
Samuel Brown
This is the last cry of the white race. Without us all excellency and brilliance will be forever expunged from earth. In that case we might as well take it with us.
Mason King
seeing how things progress, ww3 is going to happen long before that.
which happened to start, let's see..
yesterday? something like that. thanks to american idiocy. here
Shit, not yet. I only just got my weights yesterday.
Benjamin Garcia
Troop buildup can last for years. On the other hand they might know that Trump ain't gonna do that shit. Another acceralating point might be them being aware of the deterioration of the armed forces.
Michael Cruz
Charles Manson was right
John Phillips
I'm tired of all these false flags, Holla Forums
when will the DOTR happen? When will it be time to shotgun the niggers and the cucks?
Mason Cox
You have to remember though that even if the empire itself falls 1) the country itself does not necessarily capitulate, it just loses all of its significance in the world and eventually crumbles into being powerless and 2) if it does capitulate and split into two or more entities or if it's divvy'd up by its occupiers, it does not mean that a new empire won't rise from the ashes of the old one (i.e. a Cascadian style federation of all of North America's strongest and whitest nations, split from the Commune of America). Glubb's theory doesn't take into account physical borders as much as the people itself willing to uphold the morals and virtues necessary to the salvation of the empire itself. Much like hobbyists being driven away from their clique when they become the minority, we could see the richest, strongest willed of Americans move out towards weaker lands to colonize them for their own.
The one thing though that we must keep in mind is that we need to prevent the Chinese from ever getting to a point where they can be considered the world's leading empire. Doesn't matter if we meme or fight, they can't be allowed to dictate the world's actions.
Jacob Wright
2017 - 1776 = 241 Are you adding an extra three years for any reason?
Joseph Robinson
2020 - 1776 = 244 Average time an empire exists = 250
Luis Campbell
So all of us have around 6 years ahead of ourselves to perfect our bodies and minds, seems cool.
Christian Kelly
What good is it if we're not gonna kill all the niggers in the US?
Eli White
Yeah, sure. Unless the American Experiment proves to be below average.
Jaxson Morris
Have no mercy
Sebastian Martin
If it comes to that we need RWDS. I'm up for Moonman irregulars.
