SEA-Rumble, what do?

What’s that, you might ask? Here’s a few links to start:

cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/conflict/territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea
archive.is/hTLDh

cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/chinas-maritime-disputes/p31345#!/p31345
archive.is/ikYvg

bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349
archive.is/q3BWQ

As one of the player in this, Vietnam is in absolutely dreadful state. The fog of a possible war is draping all over the country. The country is currently in transition phase with new (same old) government, but there’s civil unrest due to an environmental pollution scandal, as detailed here:

asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Formosa-Plastics-suspected-of-toxic-leak-in-Vietnam
archive.is/n7Yel

rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/as-vietnams-fish-kill-05032016145914.html
archive.is/U3VIy

And this is not mention decade of inflation, money owed to developed nations, and all the turmoil you’d expect from a communist-run country.

China is not exactly well off, either. Their economy is prepare to nose dives after years of growth (in4 made in China joke) and political complications in Hong Kong and Taiwan (to which I suspected their current president is doing their best to expand China’s power and sovereignty in one hand, but centralize all those power in him in the other, before their economy fail). Here’s some links to illustrate what I talked about:

worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/gordon-g-chang/china’s-‘triple-bubble’-economy-poised-burst-0
archive.is/aF5pR

reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-president-idUSKCN0YA342
archive.is/vP2H5

bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-36329904
archive.is/mAzpt

Other urls found in this thread:

reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-obama-idUSKCN0YB00N
archive.is/qEu7I
reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa-idUSKCN0VX22B
archive.is/QeiAS
reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa-china-idUSKCN0Y10DM
archive.is/tqd9f
reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-idUSKCN0Y602Y
archive.is/t995A
janes.com/article/search?query=China
indexmundi.com/china/military_profile.html
defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

Also there’s the incoming visit of Obama from the US, who have been mulling about lifting the arms sales ban and of course, making a shekel or two out of this:
reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-obama-idUSKCN0YB00N
archive.is/qEu7I

US seems to be taking a mighty interest in this conflict as they are poking China either by using their ship with “navigational exercises”, spy planes or just using PR:
reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa-idUSKCN0VX22B
archive.is/QeiAS

reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa-china-idUSKCN0Y10DM
archive.is/tqd9f

reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-idUSKCN0Y602Y
archive.is/t995A

TLDR: China being dicks and stealing South East Asians’ sea because of “muh sovereignty”, US is really interested in what happening. What to do?
'These events are happening, here are sauces and archvies, wat do'?

This was allowed to happen because Obama is a total pussy who only likes to kill random arabs with drones but backs down from any real fight.

Vietnamese here.

It's kinda pathetic that we have to petition to Obama to help us.

Trump cannot get elected soon enough.

Malaysia and Brunei appear to be the only reasonable ones.

We might expect to see border and naval skirmishes between Vietnam and China in the next 3 to 5 years. The Vietnamese are vicious fuckers, and they won't stand for bullying from a historical enemy. There's a reason why Based Lee Kwan Yew called them the "Prussians of Asia"; it's only because they've been dealt a bad hand in modern history that they're still so backwards.

One thing you can be certain of is that the Chinese will try their best to avoid calling it a "war". They only reserve that term for Japan and bigger enemies.

The Chinese military is also in shambles. Only their ground forces are capable of mounting external attacks; the PLAN and PLAAF are effectively functioning on a 20 - 30% capacity of their machinery and equipment. Impressive parades do not make for an effective fighting force. They've been trying to study the Russians and the Euros as to how to conduct strategy, but like most Chinese goods, it's a pure imitation.

As for US interests, if Trump keeps to his promises of keeping out of conflicts that have no immediate interest to the US, we can let them duke it out. The Navy might station one or two carrier groups in key economic regions like Japan, Singapore or the Philippines just to show that the US does have an interest in the Asia-Pacific. With Hillary you can expect outright pandering to China, failing which, outright conflict.

You might also see Australia start to get a little more involved, but that's only if they can pull themselves together politically.


Brunei's an oil state, so they'd be happy to just pay the Chinese to go away.

Malaysia's government is extremely corrupt, so they'd also be just as happy to pay the Chinese to go away. They also have a large ethnic Chinese population, some of whom are likely to be infiltrators or converted double agents for the Chinese, which is why Malaysia has recently been coming down hard on political dissidents and Chinese who speak too loudly.

informative post, quite a lot to read. Will consume in depth later.


Australia was likely to side with China under a labour govt (since mining boom employs workers and they vote left) but since aggregate demand has tanked its kinda up in the air.
but the chinese are still buying heaps of land here.

It is funny you talks about Vietnamese being vicious fuckers. They are also kind of docile as well, the kind that willing to take an ass-raping from the government in exchange for security and safety.

But I'm interested in the military tidbits of China though. Any links? And also, can you expand what you said about Hilary and Trump? As someone who don't want this war to happen what would be the best case scenario?

The days of anyone being vicious fuckers is over.

Western liberal democracy kills all viciousness.

Civilization kills barbarity and aggressiveness.

Remember, Vietnam is not a Western liberal democracy, mate.

I can understand how you'd have that point of view, especially given the Vietnamese who run over to the West would give off that impression.

Go over the Vietnam, however, and speak to anyone on the streets and in the villages. It's an entirely different picture. You thought Flips were obnoxious about glorious Flip Banana Land? Wait till you speak to a Viet nationalist. You'll want to gouge his eyes out, then yours for having suffered through all his verbiage.

The current Viet administration is suffering under the weight of War's legacy and the failures of communism. They're more than happy to take aid from the suckers in Congress who're so happy to give it away and still suffer from Nam guilt.

There's not very much information online that details the weakness of Chinese technology and equipment. The Chinese are very tight-lipped about what they can and cannot do, but if you've interacted with some of their defense specialists and military officials, there are subtle hints that all is not well. You can start with Jane's for an idea of their numbers:
janes.com/article/search?query=China
indexmundi.com/china/military_profile.html

A 2009 report to Congress has also raised the issue of the PLA attempting to modernize its forces and develop longer range strike capabilities:
defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf

The same report also mentions that Chinese military thinking and command is still stuck in the 80s, but they're moving on very slowly.

If it ever did come to blows, we might see some very high-tech equipment being field along side early millennium ground tech. Their logistics capabilities are also not as well-developed as the Russian's or the allied forces' during the First Gulf War, but as they will have homeland advantage in a land war in Asia, this is somewhat mitigated.

Hillary is a Washington apparatchik; she'll continue the same course to failure as Obama has plotted. This means she'll try to play appeasement to China due to the trade vice they have on us (and her taking an opposing position to DJT).

This will resultantly piss Japan and Vietnam, and potentially Korea and the Philippines as well. This situation, as you might imagine, is totally untenable in the long run, as China will desire more and more to prop up its slowing economy, and the US will get angrier and angrier. I cannot say for sure that war will break out between the US and China directly, but due to having so many already hostile players in the region, it will lead to a cataclysm where someone throws the first punch and things start blowing up.

Trump is a different player altogether. I'm voting for him because he's the best hope we have of changing things, but in the defense world, you quickly learn to never commit to any predictions past 6 months and never to trust platforms on defense commitments.

As he's said, he'll strengthen the US military (hopefully by strengthen, he means make it less bloated and more focused on fighting), and avoid participating in any conflicts that do not present a direct interest to the US. A war between China and Vietnam won't be of paramount importance to DJT, seeing as he doesn't want China to be in a stronger trade and economic position above us. In order to remind everyone that the US still has Asia-Pacific interests though, he will probably put a few carrier groups in the region to remind China that everything else is off-limits. The Chinese are notoriously cautious in war when it comes to anyone but their historical enemies.

Best case scenario would be a President Trump reviewing all the "traditional" alliances in the region and being as offhand as possible. We're ripe for a WW1 implosion in the Asia-Pacific, and the US will have to hedge its bets very carefully. If the US decides to prop up Vietnam, it'll mightily piss off a lot of other countries in the region like Thailand and Indonesia. China will have to be worked with carefully, especially given the "trade war" that might break out when Trump is President. Some old allies may have to be sacrificed, e.g. Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, in order to maintain the balance of power.

DJT? Better to call him GEM. God-Emperor fo Mankind.

Could suggest it to the Secret Service. They'll need a codename for him, so a gem-themed one would enclose that acronym.

I see what you are saying. The risk of a WW3 centered around the South East Asia area is quite possible. However, can Trump prop up the South East Asia region as a whole while also try to hedge its bet with China?

I feel like the best case scenario is China implode itself with their economy and society (the second instance of Cultural Revolution is a distinctive possibility too) and no one would have some to blow because China will consume itself as their economy failed.

...

FFS, all those fucking spelling and grammatical mistakes. I really need to get some sleep.


Yes, it's entirely plausible, but then again, so is a WW3 centered in Europe. It's as hard to predict large-scale conflicts as it was in 1913 and 1938.

I don't know how Trump can hold up SEA, tbh. There are way too many grievances and historical rivalries in the region, and cultural differences mean that they don't forget grudges. There are "neutral" and less risky zones like Singapore and Myanmar in there, but the former is too Westernized for the US to project any meaningful weight on the rest of the countries, and the latter is way too backwards and has too much political baggage (fuck Aung San Suu Kyi, seriously. Leftist useful idiot). Maybe he could work through ASEAN to promote solidarity in the region, but that organization is currently a paper tiger.

A Chinese implosion could very well happen when Trump becomes President; it only depends on how ferocious Trump is and how desperate the Chinese populace get. I don't think a second Cultural Revolution will happen, seeing as there's no god-figure like Mao any more, but as that's not my specialty, don't trust me on that.

Thanks for the insight. If this is going to be the case, then what should a Vietnamese do? Run as far as they can or stay and fight?

Enjoy your leftist coward trash.

The dead doesn't know honor and courage. And the living only pretend that it matters.

Really interested to see what the newly elected Philippine president means for southeast asian geopolitics

May his RWDS be a success

The new Philippine president can probably be an important chess piece in this whole kerfuffle.

As a Vietnamese though, we just want peace. But I guess in this day and age peace is a luxury that no one can afford.

Why?

I thought all indochinese would be buddies even if its only because theyve got china looming over them.

Are there frictions between thailand and vietnam today?

Not that I know of. I don't think there's any, really. Even if you count the soccer rivalry.

The whole of Viet shall be subsumed into China proper sooner or later. It is inevitable.

The whole of the Canton area was once part of the historical Viet kingdom. Vietnam (literally "Southern Viet") is simply what's left of the inferior Asiatic race that refused to be bred out by Han conquerors over the centuries.

It is pretty close now, look at the big urban cities.

That's just chinese propaganda, Southern Viet and An Nam (its old name) are two different countries.

Oy vey how dare they!
These racist nativists!

Uhm, no. As pointed out, the info is just simply wrong. Vietnam did have more than a thousand years under the Chinese, but Vietnamese does not just roll over when it comes to historical enemies, especially the Chinese.

The unified Viet tribes lost in 200BC and got incorporated into the Han empire as part of Nanyue.

True that but we regained independence via various revolutions.

Inferior races have only one fate: to be bred out by the superior race.

It's for the good for the whole of humanity. One wouldn't say "let the Negroes breed as they wish, for it has no impact on the Greco-Roman-Egyptian Aryan betterment of Europe and North Africa as a whole", just as no one would say "let the Viet/Korean/Ainu tribes breed as they wish, for it has no impact on the Han betterment of Asia as a whole".

SEA is worthless except the Phillipines (which is itself turmoil), the solution to Vietnam requires Japan, USA and Russia.

If Japan and USA can destroy the chink navy and Russia can provide materiel, Vietnam can stand against China.

If they are superior, why do we Viet regain our independence in various wars?

And promptly be conquered again, this time by the French, a foreign race to Asia.

The "Hundred Viet tribes" had nary a sophisticated culture when the Han conquered them — voodoo tattoos, and still nomadic as fuck despite living surrounded by sea and on fertile land. The culturalisation and domestication of the Viets was majorly a Han effort.

Know your place, Viet. Serve as an honoured subservient kingdom to the Middle Empire. There is virtue in knowing and following the natural order of things.

Yet again you Viet show your inherent short-sightedness when it comes to politics. I don't blame you though.

That empire is about to fall, btw.

And again we regained independence from the French.

And fuck no, you chinese cunt, you just want all the ports in Vietnam because you know if you control Vietnam you control SEA.

That's a pretty good question.

I think the western whites are cucks to be frank.

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The Empire fell, and the Empire rose again.

The Han is the only Ancient Civilisation race that has been through this since antiquity. I laugh whenever I read all these "OMG CHINA'S GONNA BLOW!" posts on the Internet. So short-sighted and naive, like historical infants that most of you are (as Americans).

They sure welcome invaders with open arms.

It's arguable that the commie chinks are successor to the various chinese dynasties.

You should be backing Taiwan.

The Communist party is anything but communist. The very structure of a single party dictatorship backed by a body of bureaucracy and propaganda we have in China nowadays, if anything, is a direct modern descendant of the historical Confucian and Legalist government structures of past Dynasties.

Taiwan is cucked. They may have started as the Nationalists, but their current descendants are nothing but Western liberalist brainwashed cucks. The amount of degenerate news coming especially from Taoyuan is un-fucking-real.

Didn't Vietnam stole more and more Cambodia's land every year?

Why so greedy to expand ocean territory?

International politics is a global game of greed, user.

The only problem is when inferior races get more than they deserve. Look at what's happening in Europe now.

Thank the gods the Han aren't as limpy as the Europids in the current generation.

Seems like history is repeating itself.

We need to divide China into 8 countries again.

Nobody's going to set up colonies on Chinese soil again. If China were to break up it'll be to the model of the Three Kingdoms or the Spring and Autumn Period mess of civil wars.

But we all know that'll just end up resulting in an even stronger iteration of Chinese empire at the end, just as history has told us.

It's over for Europeans sure, but Japan, Russia and the USA still live.

Not to mention the India, but even I don't want poo in loo in China heartland.

I was the user who wrote and (ID: 7f07dd)

There aren't any frictions of note to speak of today between Thailand and Vietnam, but the moment one gains the upper hand over the other, you can expect to see both start to become very aggressive in their border ambitions. There's no strong Indochinese brotherhood in the region; it's only peaceful because they're not capable of saber rattling.


Taiwan is, as has said, cucked. They're playing with Western ideals, and their newest wimmin president has come out in support of Hillary. She's also said that Obama's policies regarding education and social justice were worth emulating.

Pirate scum should know their place instead of trying and failing to build an empire again.

If anything China is eating into her borders.

Too cucked to do anything. Even with Trump in the whole Senate and co. will still make sure the US military will continue to bleed money for globalist Jewish interests in the Middle East.

Separated they might be cuck, but together they will easily conquer China.

China is following the same path that Japan took in the late 80s and throwing on top mountains of false import/export and growth data.

All this shit wont matter because the Chinese economy is about to enter into a coma like the Japanese one has been in for nearly 3 decades.

The Chinese buying up shit in foreign countries like mad is the exact same thing the Japanese did prior to the economy tanking, the rats are sensing the ship is about to sink and are fleeing as fast as they can.


I would go with Three Kingdoms situation but also put forth several small independent city states appearing such as Shanghai.

PRC should stop this Han supremacist bullshit and act as a lever of unification of all Sino-Tibetan ethnoi into a racial federation and remove Uighurs.

The population and the genetics is the same. That's what matters the most in the long run.

Already did lol, where do you think vietnam, hong kong, japan, korea and taiwan came from?

Japan has never been conquered or a part of China.

China has been at one time divided into 8 provinces by colonial powers, meaning no China at all.

The very idea of conquering Vietnam goes against nationalism.
Nationalism does not seek a multicultural empire, it seeks a free nation consisting of only one people free from all foreign domination.
Conquering Vietnam is like conquering a snake-infested forest anyway.
t. Chinese

A kick the Manchus and all Altaics back to Mongolia and confederate with your Sino-Tibetan brothers.

There are like 100 of them now.
We'll just gib them Inner Mongolia, not that it's worth shit
remove them from China, we need lebensraum
how the fuck would we be interested in a mountainous wasteland? They can fall to the street shitters for all I care.
They can have their own nation state.

I've got no source but i've heard some Holla Forumslack said before, China wants Tibet is because Everest, it's the main water supply for India, so if Pajeet stepped out of line the Chinks can just block their clean water supply, Pajeet might not be able to wipe their ass with water anymore.

we won against India and withdrew afterwards.

They are pretty much the homeland of Buddhism one of the cornerstones of Sinic culture.

Of course Chinese, Tibetans and Burmese can have their own countries just like Slavics, Germanics and Romance but they should also be united and have their common interests prioritized over everything else. Linguistic affinity is as an important feature of race as genetics (except when they are reverted to Islam, Bosniaks and albos are not White).

oh so we shouldn't assimilate Chinese Muslims, who are a separate ethnicity only for gibs?

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>inb4 kike on a stick, I guess we can all agree that kikes and mud shits should not be for white people

Yes. Islam is the antipode of everything Whites stand for Illyrrio.

The empire tried to annex the south, the south will rises again.
The circle of history will repeat, yes. But for now though? It is crumbling.

DIE

Other than trade sanctions and moving production to other countries (including, of course, back home), let the CCP regime collapse over itself. Its rotten foundations wouldn't cope a single blow.

No, not Judaism. The Jews didn't take long to develop their thorough hatred for Jesus and his followers and the Jew-Christians were long gone at that point.
The basis of Islam came from the parts of Eastern Christianity that rejected or were simply shielded by distance (remember, Christianity may have reached Japan by the 5th century) from Hellenic philosophical influences, dogmatic developments like trinitarianism and used Gospel harmonies like the Diatessaron as the textual basis of their faith.

ohhhhh shit nigga