So, where will the next revolution happen?
What contributes to Socialism forming? Do you think it's more likely to happen in a third world country? How much does social democracy contribute to workers being okay with their oppression? When will this next revolution happen?
Future predictions thread, I guess.
Not in our lifetime that's for sure, user as a wobbly my only suggestion is to breed or adopt, don't treat your kids like shit, don't try and mold them, etc. and give them some socialist ideas and depending on where you live teach them to hide their power level. Furthermore teach theory. I'm heading out the door as I type this FYI
A few months before the revolution in Russia Lenin declared there would never be one in his lifetime. Not saying we will see one ourselves, but revolutions have a way to develop organically, even outside leftist influence.
That said I unfortunately agree with you, I don't think we will see large socialist movements rise up any time soon. Maybe with the coming crash something will happen but I doubt it, an economic crash alone won't cut it.
Turkey or India.
I agree
china
What makes you say that?
South Africa
The UK, we're coming for your toothbrush Middle England.
Tbh China is pretty-much primed for a USSR-style collapse of government authority when the next crash hits.
Honestly something is going to have to give in the US. From the abysmal inequality, the total lack of state accountability to the people, the growing poverty, foreign wars, etc. Depending on how big the next crash is I can see America degenerating into major civil conflict at the very least. It’s likely that this will result in Balkanization, but maybe one of those new countries will be socialist.
I don't have high hopes for whatever includes south georgia. In some places its already 3rd world conditions just with a few nicer things.
The US will shatter before it ever reforms tbh.
There will be an active, rather than a passive, black genocide if this happens.
...
I don't understand any part of this post
Soviets collapsed because state structure was antithetical to Capitalist mode of production (not to mention the whole cultural baggage that simply screamed "kill those fucking liberals"). However, China is already running Capitalism.
A better example would be Chile circa 1973.
There will be proclaimed something along the lines of
And all power will be transferred to the people (general Pi No Che) who will be much better at defending freedom and liberty of general public.
tonight at 8 pm me and my bros are doing a revolution over at chicago you comin dude?
Eh Chile didn't have the cronyist nomenclature: and China is worse off because the nomenclature don't even have a unifying ideology anymore. There is nothing binding the CPC to power except for the sake of power itself, the CPC can try to abuse nationalism as much as it can to justify its further rule of China but the corrupt system they have created just will not withstand the next financial crash.
Now the really interesting question is who will take over? Having Taiwan do it would be like Moldova taking power over Romania post-Causcaseacusaeacuascasucauseuauseasceau and there is no major opposition movement like the Bolsheviks to seize the state. Now obviously in the separatist regions (Tibet, Uyghurstan, Hon Kong although that is more democratic than separatist groups) but there is no real domestic movement. That posit the question who will take control of the apparatus of hte country: at-least in the former USSR there were oligarchs who had bought major industries to do so but in China they already exist and are a part of the CPC.
TL;DR China as it currently exists is fucked but its massive change will be immensely interesting to observe.
t. kaiserreich reed
If there is any country in Europe that has a chance of going full commie it's Greece. They've been in economic freefall for years and the EU has gutted there country plus they also have beef with the Turks. I think it might become like a Catalonia or Ukraine freestate but it'll probably get crushed like the former because the powers that be will not accept a leftist state in anyway shape or form.
Isn't Golden Dawn way more popular than KKE, and whatever small shitty anarchist groups there are, though? I don't know much about greek politics but a fascist Greece seems more likely than a communist Greece tbh.
That could only happen if either the EU was dissolved or if Socialists should succeed in taking over the European institutions.
As it is right now the Greek state has no real control over its economic policy.
Although it might very well be the least classcucked European country.
This.
There is no way EFF doesn’t enter government in 2019.
Eh they sound a little bit spooked, but I don't really know more than what a couple of minutes of research via Google has shown me.
Don't underestimate small groups, remember Mao got btfo multiple times but stuck it out
...
prolepill me on this group
I am not adherent of crypto-Anarchist idea that Soviet "nomenclature" (nomenklatura - high-ranking Party members) played any major role in late USSR. Key factor was "red directorate" (captains of Soviet industry). Soviet counter-revolution was not Bureacratic, but Techocratic.
You have a very weird perception of state. Financial crises do not end "systems". People do. Or, to be more precise, organized people do.
Consequently, the question is what power group wants to end current China. And the answer is: none. At least, I am not aware of any significant group that has vested interest in overthrowing current Chinese Social Democracy. Nobody would benefit from it.
Capitalists might not be amused by it, but they are not threatened by it and what they want (privatise more of public sector) does not require overthrowing the state. They are already part of the China's system - up to and including membership in CPC.
Gusano propaganda shit from apartheidists
hold on, let me ask my friend at the CIA
Imagine how many millions of people will die of disease and starvation if a revolution hits India. Probably for the best. There are just to many people alive today.
The Philippines? NPA membership has been steadily increasing since Duterte took office, and his recent steps to move the country back into martial law will just serve to exacerbate recruitment, just as it did when Marcos declared martial law.
Also, the Philippine economy has been bubbling like mad in the past 8 years, but that will have to come to an end someday. The crisis phase of the country's capitalist cycle is inevitable–and it won't be pretty.
lol jk the philippine communist movement is going to blunder into irrelevancy like it did in 1986
The flags in this picture are disgusting. You ruined the flag of South Carolina. :'(
Nowhere because none of you fags have the balls to just get violent already.
google Bookchin, reactionary.
Britain
mexico
Lenin in a speech to the Swiss communist youth in December 1916 expressed the exact same thing. Never say never comrade.
I do not know where the first 21st century communist revolution will occur, but I am certain that there will be one within the next few decades.
Reactionary eras beget revolutionary eras.
Brazil.
A peaceful revolution will happen in Britain
They ironically suffer from much of the same problems that the Soviet Union suffered from. The political system there has become calcified against change, it seems like it no longer capable of reforming to address its internal contradictions as they arise. Even the bourgeois economists and the fucking World Bank were railing against the GOP tax plan, the fact that they went ahead with it tells me that they are incapable of adapting to not only the needs of the population, but the inherent un-sustainability of their current model of capitalism. This is a major departure from the America of the past, which showed it was capable of dealing with catrastrophic contradictions in their system as they arose. They reformed when the monopolies sprang up, they reformed when the depression hit, they reformed when Keynesianism ran out of steam. But now, despite overwhelming pressure from both above and below, they have not only failed to make basic reforms, they have pushed in the opposite direction. There’s no way this can last.
No such thing
Oh a peaceful revolution can occur, it is just that you have to fight the counterrevolution with force: but it is far easier to fight a counterrevolution when you are the norm than the other way around. Corbyn-McDonnell try to get elected, deep state tries to coup them, they win because when a force is the default you can make the coup'ers look like the great other ebul revolutionaries trying to overthrow the status quo (see Erdogan in Turkey, textbook example of how to counter a coup by making you hte position of "DEMOCRACY"). Now I am 99.91% sure McDonnell has a counter-plan for a coup, he has read the SI, he is a bright bloke. DotP by 2020 comrades.
You'd need the army on your side to do that, probably. But hey, good response/10.
Across the entire world if we're hoping to succeed. If you're asking where it's going to start, I have no idea beyond that'd it be a place where proles are actively engaged in class struggle, whatever form that may take
The british army has been just as fucked by Tory austerity as the NHS has, I'm surprised the army hasnt tried a coup already
...
underrated
Right because insurrectionist attacks have worked so brilliantly in the past.
Saudi Arabia
I agree with you though I'm a pessimist and believe revolution won't happen anytime soon.
However like this user said I definitely don't like the way this is going. Reminds me of the market reforms in Chile under Pinochet and scares the fuck out of me tbh and with the military / police / security culture in the US such outcomes are totally believable imo
A successful United States revolution would probably destroy capitalism altogether in a domino effect
I'm surprised no one has said Nepal yet. Granted there are already commies in government, but they're still a long way from socialism.
Maoists declaring protracted people's war against other Maoists doesn't sound productive
nigger most countries in the world are leftist or take left ideas and incorporate them into society (america and most of europe)
Keynesianism isn't leftist you illiterate cick
A revolution in Saudi-Arabia would be horrible for them, they wouldn't be able to sell their oil anymore nor import labor power. They would turn into Yemen.
Exactly, and so has both the police & security services. Sure the SS have more powers but they have less and less manpower to use that. May might be killing the deep state without knowing it.
...
Leftism =/= socialism
Keynesianism =/= social programs
The US government has been in a slow motion collapse for over a decade now, I have a hard time believing whoever wins in 2020 will accomplish anything. The political system is buried under mountains of undemocratic procedures, legalized corruption, and living fossils in most important offices. Anyone with leftist opinions has been systematically made unemployable and have virtually no one to vote for anyway. A crisis in confidence in the government following a major natural disaster or economic crash isn't unlikely.
iirc the south african communist party doesn't get on with the eff
I could see a country like Armenia or Moldova having a revolution, they've suffered big time since 1991 and the USSR is still popular there, yet they're small enough for the big capitalist powers to ignore them.
An Indian socialist revolution would be absolutely huge. Imagine a billion people overthrowing capitalism and putting ethnic/religious tension behind them. It would easily be on par with the Russian and Chinese revolutions as one of the most earth shattering political events of the modern era.
SACP is Eurocommie at most radical, more like an arm of the ANC on average.
EFF is Leninist, with the expropriation of all privately-owned land without compensation being the party's first and most important priority.
Agree about the US, I think a lot of european leftists don't fully understand how broken the US political system is; it's fundamentally unreformable because fixing it requires overhauling the Constitution and that's not happening without a serious revolutionary threat. Add to that the fact that Americans are the worst hit by neoliberal cancer and associated late-capitalist problems and there will be hell to pay in a few decades. This doesn't mean the US is destined for socialism, but it does make it possible.
I see three outcomes for the US in 40 years:
1. Socialism with American Characteristics (i.e. with strong ChristSoc influences and decentralized/market socialist consumer goods economy)
2. Reformist Social Democracy (Bernie/Norway tier) if porkies get their shit together and realize they need to adapt
3. Fascism draped in the flag and holding a cross (if porkies decide to adapt in a less friendly way)
Sup Holla Forums.
Capitalism with a welfare state is still capitalism. Are the means of production owned by the workers or the rich? If it's the workers then the country is leftist. Right now we live in a capitalist world.
The military profit machine will fight to defend itself, and it can't remain in place even under a mild social democratic government. As much as we talk about imperialism many people seem to overlook the elephant in the room, the biggest military machine in history that enriches or employs the worst people on earth.
...
this. As the heartland bleeds out the empire will get more aggressive, causing it to bleed out even more thus increase the power and influence of the military industrial complex even more
wew
Mutualists and some Democratic Socialists want to use anti-capitalist markets with worker control of the MoP. They're still left-wing and not what you would call full communism. Some Social Democrats can also be considered left-leaning or centrist.
I have a feeling it would be a very short phase, American fascists are amazingly inept, google the silver shirts for reference.
yup.
pleb here, what is that?