FINANCIAL HAPPENING

So what happens to the people who are indebted to them?

As someone who worked for a federal banking regulator, I can tell you there have been plenty of bank failures over the past few years. There are just too small for it to hit the news.

Presumably… Company enters bankruptcy, existing debts are sold off, and the people pay whatever bank bought them at a discount.

Any of them lose $2bn of valuation in a single day?

How about we don't let FBIanons and CIAniggers infiltrate the movement with idpol this time?

PLEASE FUCKING CRASH
WE NEED A HAPPENING
NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS WHEN

Financial crashes don't do anything anymore though. Things just get even worse for the proles while states use their tax money to bail out the capitalists.

2008 was the wakeup call for millions of people that they weren't beyond catastrophe and the world hadn't been "solved"
The next one will be a turning point.

2 crashes in the span of 10 years would get even us burgers in the streets with guillotines

2 Billion? Maybe in devaluation of their underlying assets, most weren't on the stock market.

Assuming the UK has a similar system to the US, and that the deposits at Provident Financial's subsidiary Vanquis Bank were insured, what happens is that first the bank's assets and loans are put into conservatorship, that is the federal agency that insures the deposits at the bank own all of them. That agency will then sell off all of the desirable assets to other banks, including the loans. The debtors will then have to put up with this new company. The agency then tries to recover what money they can from the bad loans, and reaches some kind of settlement with the debtors, or the debtors refinance. But perhaps the bankruptcy laws in Britain work differently, and actually have proper standards for banks.

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This picture is a fucking embarrassment. It makes anti-identitarian socialism look like something straight out of a 9/11 truther community.

user, I don't think you understand that in 2008 we were like two weeks away from empty store shelves. We were only able to prevent that by dropping the fed rate down to almost nothing, printing hundreds of billions of dollars in cash to pump straight into the banks, borrowing hundreds of billions more to give to the banks, buying up bad mortgages with government money, and buying people's cars just to crush them so they'd buy new cars.

We're out of tricks to play to save the current system. The rate never really went back up, and burgers won't allow more bailout bullshit. If this snowballs like 2007/2008, that's it. It's over. Capitalism is dead.

But is it wrong…?

the right is organized, all they need is a big crisis to have an excuse to take the realms of power
is this it?

Fortunately antifa exists and could probably prevent the more extreme fascist forces from taking over Europe. The US is fucked though. Good riddance.

the interests only recently gone up, they're still close to zero in most places since 2008. how are they gonna fix it this time?

War?

They won't, but we will.

Sounds like it's time to move to negative rats.

possible very possible.
how ironic would it be trump end up using the russia nonsense to declare war on russia for supposedly fixing the us elections in his name?

The only extreme fascists taking over Europe will be Muslims, and antifa is more interested in offering themselves and taking the nut deep inside than fighting them.

The social justice movement is a misguided and limited movement that is easily co-opted, and for that reason it receives media and mainstream political support that is completely out of proportion with its actual merits.

This simple truth, that is easy to prove and easy to argue for, gets a little bit harder to sell to common people every time some idiot talks about how it's all a concerted effort by alphabet soup, whenever someone talks about George Soros creating it, and whenever someone backs fantastic claims with the classic Holla Forums model of editing together a bunch of disjointed headlines and segments from wikipedia articles.

So yes, it is wrong, because it goes beyond what we can prove and obfuscates a much simpler, empirically supported, and popular argument with garbage. There's a very important line between being against identity politics and thinking a stupid decision-making process in OWS was created by COINTELPRO, ffs.

Every time some dumb leftist (assuming the person who made this is one) takes a valid, lucid argument or sentiment we're trying to popularize and pushes it into the realm of conspiracy theory it's our job to stop him, because 1. he makes that process a lot more difficult, 2. he's dumbing us down and diminishing our collective hability to realistically estimate the strategies and capacities of alphabet soup agencies, and 3. our opponents, who own the means of mass communication, are ready to call us crazy and convince the population that we're nutjobs, and we can't make their jobs easier like that.

I stopped paying attention some time ago, I can't even tell, something is in the negative already

...

Do we have another 9 years? It seems like the next crises could be a tipping point. There will have to be a huge reset at some point, in 2008 the government was giving away free money. They couldn't even lower the interest rate enough to get people to borrow, they had to just give it away for free. There isn't enough money to cover for the musical chairs anymore, at some point there will be another crash and all they can do is give away more free money. It's a literal handout from the bottom class to the upper class, and maybe that is all they will be able to do for every following crash. At some point, the bottom class is going to be squeezed too much, there will be unimaginable wealth concentration at the top for nothing but to cover debts that have to be paid to make sure banks don't fail.

I welcome the chaos.

fuck man.
I never even got to write that book like I've always wanted.

This is probably true, but it's a crisis under fucking Trump, after one year entirely energized by Sanders, Corbyn, Melénchon, six years after OWS, and with the Left already having a somewhat decent mechanism of shaping popular opinion.

It's not going to be IT, but it might make people aware of what it will take to make IT happen.

Ah yes, spontaneous revolutions.

You mean like the one co-opted by the ayatollah, the one co-opted by ukrainian nazis, the one co-opted by jihadists, the one co-opted by CIA-backed movements, or what?

The only revolutions not used by the organized Right are the ones used by an organized Left.

...

Okay but what that one user said was right, this is not the best time for there to be a collapse but you work with what you get I guess

Spontaneous revolution is a meme. There has never been one.

this year was particularly damaging though. asking people on the left to vote for Her, and basically losing the young generation because we can't meme for shit..

...

why does this annie may have no eyes?

you don't think the kids are lost to the right?

archive.is/FZyCp

...

Hmmm. Also 15 year olds are fucking stupid.

Yea I don't trust kids who have never had a job to have a stable political ideology.

>We totally know the political positions of people who are 21 at the very oldest.

I didn't radicalize until I started working and having to pay rent.

I beg to fucking differ.

They're not a bank though are they?

Gotta just go out to the people and say "Ask yourself which is more likely… That the biggest banks, which blew up twice in ten years, are the cause of the problems - or that Juan who sits in front of Home Depot waiting for work is the cause of the problems. Which one seems more plausible to you?"

This shit will last as long as /r/Atheism and Tumblr feminism did. Kill yourself if you're actually worried about these nerds.

If we had 1,000 men like you, Bat'ko, we'd win the war.

But we don't so shut up nerd

I'm just being honest.
Meanwhile in bizarro 4/pol/, they don't even care of being caught with lame psy-ops. they just do it

what war stop being so fucking autistic.

The class one

Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns didn't have a single depositor account between 'em, and they were banks. Were.

it's a generational shift. usually people stick with it for life. I've seen it happen before.

Literally every revolution considered to be a success at any level has been spontaneous, you moron. It has never in history started because of a party. Paris 1793, 1871, and 1968 - all spontaneous. Russia 1905 and 1917 - spontaneous. Etc. Parties simply capitalized upon and then crushed them afterwards.

You wish Holla Forums. Also it said nothing about economics anyways. The culture war is an illusion.

/r/atheism and tumblr feminism seem to be on the way out, though

How big was this Provident Financial anyway?
Never heard about it tbh

That's his point.

Years and years of work along with a lot of money went into each revolution

...

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Pretty big for the UK. They just market under a bunch of different names - Vanquis, Provident, Satsuma, Glo, and Moneybarn.
They're an FTSE100 company. Roughly equivalent to Fortune 500 in the US. Collapse like this has never happened to an FTSE100 company before.

in case you didn't notice they were the ones making sense this time. Defending wikileaks and freedom of speech, protecting personal freedom and the internet. Of course they were going to get the younger generation.

Even Fox News was making more sense than the rest of the media for a brief period.
We just watched them steal our narrative and our arguments. I don't mind admitting it.

hmmm

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUU

they never decisively broke for net neutrality.

Provident Financial serves 2.4 million UK customers

The worst part of all this is what the services they provide are.
1) Subprime auto loans. People used them to buy cars they couldn't afford, which we're artificially cheap anyway due to government bailouts of auto manufacturers in the US, UK Germany and France. This combined with auto scrappage incentives meant that the auto industry in the UK is being propped up by bullshit loans, which will now be harder to get.
2) Payday loans. People having a hard time getting cash to pay the bills turn to these to avoid default for a couple weeks. The fact that they're harder to get now will mean that default rates on other personal debt is about to go up.

The combination of these two - popping the auto bubble and sending a wave of people into default - certainly has the potential to send the UK economy into a death spiral. If that happens, HSBC and RBS default on a lot of their debts. And if that happens, a shitload of US banks that hold their securities will go down the shitter.

So basically, the fuse has been lit. If the UK government doesn't intervene soon, shit's gonna go bad. It'll be slow at first, just like 2007, but then it'll all go at once.

lmao one Anglo fuck SINGLEHANDEDLY killed western civilization because of meme technology

Rate of profit is too low. Capitalists are going fucking crazy trying to squeeze profit out of every little thing with untested systems. It's actually pretty funny to watch.

...

America is going to go out like Nazi Germany. Odds are you will get to witness some pretty cool bombing runs on places like NYC and SF. Shit is going to get crazy.

I'd argue the far-right is better organized and has more social support in Europe tbh. Historically speaking, usually its the weaker imperialists who go fascist during a crisis of capitalism. Britain didn't go fascist during the Depression and it was the biggest power of all. The US, and France didn't either but bankrupt Germany, Italy, and Japan did.

All those that I named were spontaneous. In fact, Lenin dragged his feet and argued against the soviets in 1905. In 1968, the PCF worked against the student councils and wildcat strikes. The list goes on.
A priori organizations which designate themselves the "pearl of socialism", the "enlightened proletarian vanguard", they are consistently reactionary without fail in the instance of revolution because they do not understand what socialism is.
You think you're so "educated" that you should be the priest class to order society in order to achieve formulaic socialism? Please, you're not even consistent with what Marx actually said:
You Leninists are a bunch of didactic, stuck up college kids who think they're the next great Marxist philosopher because they wear a flat cap and have learned to spew a little Lacan and a little Althusser. You've never been a socialist and probably never will be. Unfuck yourself before you screw up another revolution and restore capitalism, you illiterate party cultist.

Good post

Britain absorbed its losses by letting its colonies suffer before eventually cutting ties with them, and it had a lot of colonies. The US doesn't really have that capacity thanks to neoliberal imperialism being a lot more subtle than just direct claims on the foreign land..

The US could still feed all the wealth of Latin America into it's maw in order to stabilize things if it really need to though, right?

Britain basically just grabbed everything of value from their colonies while dropping all support because they had claims over it already.

I think even the US would have a lot of trouble justifying just doing a smash and grab on South America.

Is this really it? Or is it just the market reacting to a dumb move by a big time bank? Should I leave the US? I'm getting spooked over here guys

...

But even if we were to accept that at face-value I think you didn't really address this poster's basic point:

The Russian Revolution was decades of organizing, struggle, and lots of money on simply the Bolsheviks part alone. The struggle to simply overthrow absolutist Tsarism in its totality was a process that over a century in the making with thousands of lives lost and many, many years spent in the wilderness on the part of the long-suffering Russian people.

The PCF was an unabashedly revisionist party that had been severely criticized by the anti-revisionist parties in the world for almost two decades by that point. Even an unabashed opportunist like Tito was more revolutionary then the PCF because he sold weapons to the Algerian resistance while they were content to sit on their thumbs. The PCF along with the Italian Communist Party had already been severely criticized by the Cominform as early as 1947:ml-review.ca/aml/Comintern/Cominform_WBB_StalinSoc.htm

There's more then enough blame to go around cause I see plenty of anarchists and self-proclaimed MLs and other Marxists saying we can't support this or that struggle because its not perfect, can't get involved in bourgeois disputes etc. I mean I don't see whats inconsistent with that quote by saying that we need a party to help spread consciousness and get ready for the revolution. Obviously, before there was a Lenin or even a Marx there were struggles going on in the world, the point is to them in the right direction or we'll have to wait till either humanity dies out or the capitalist system hits its absolute physical limits to leave behind capitalist exploitation. Even then its not assured that with capitalism a failure that humanity wouldn't revert to some even worse state.

I'm not as pessimistic as all that but no one is born a communist or a socialist. And honestly you only have to be around self-proclaimed radical socialists or anarchists to see that there probably should be some sort of social control or coercion to make sure not only that things get done, but the right things get done so as not to alienate the people from our cause.

I'm a worker, I don't have time to become a full-time activist and honestly I dislike most activists that I meet and "activist culture" cause its full of rad libs. I'd rather like a radical socialist party that represents my interests and that doesn't dissolve like a soap bubble every time a fad is over. I remember OWS and it was hot garbage, just a bunch of LARPing and outraged people with no idea what they were doing or where to even start. It effected less of a change then even the tea party and got coopted by the establishment anyway tbh it probably was led by COINTEL types as soon as it got started

No. The imperial core is the best place to be if you want to get through economic malaise without running off and becoming a subsistence farmer.

But I'm a brown dude. If Trump goes full fash, I'm what's for dinner for your local ravenous fascist.

What are they going to do to claim billions or even trillions in value in the span of a year or two? Openly declare war?

We don't know for sure what form fascism will take in America yet. Brown people might be just fine. Mussolini let Jews into the fascist party in droves.

Maybe some sort of warlordism could do the trick?

I think he won't or his administration will collapse before he does precisely there's too many of you out there. But perhaps that obscures the point though because fascism isn't primarily about racism but its a form of plutocratic imperialist class control that attempts to subvert mass energy for its own ends.

So now everyone is running around screaming about racism and thinking that smashing up statues will make the fascists go away when the key thing about fascism is that its a tool to maintain bourgeois capitalist society and not merely or primarily to maintain a perceived racial order of things.

Nazi Germany, fascist Italy, Imperial-fascist Japan what did they have in common? They were all ruled by plutocracies that were as ravenous and opulent as their British/American counterparts despite the fact their economies in both per capita terms and absolute output were smaller in comparison. They lacked any kind of democratic accountability that might've come from even bourgeois democracy and they desired not just neocolonial domination (they were too bankrupt to be very effective at it) but also a large empire that could solve their financial woes without making any real concessions to the people.

Eh, the US still has neocolonial clients all over the world and does good business, its literally been in decline since the 1950s because it was so absolutely dominant after WWII that it had to give its allies some room to breathe at least.

The EU despite its 500 million citizens is worth only $16.5 trillion in nominal GDP, China's nominal GDP is $11.2 trillion while that of the United States clocks in around $18.5 trillion. The US is perhaps the best prepared to weather a financial crisis in that respect it can afford to lose far more then its competitors can afford to lose.

China is nowhere near finished industrialising yet. You're right about them not being in a position to take the crown now but give it a few decades.

Hard to tell, but I suspect that the US's going to need a lot more than what it can grab.

They had to dive deep into federal reserves which they haven't had any chance to refill to pay off companies enough to keep a mass capital flight from happening and didn't start pulling from other places. They're already trying to suck every penny from Puerto Rico they can and it's not even close to enough.

The real collapse of Britain didn't really happen until WWII forced them to allocate everything they had into the military, far beyond what they would have wanted for just war spending. It was also what pushed the US to the fore. But it's entirely possible that if the US hadn't gone and profiteered and industrialized off WWII to such an enormous amount, nobody would have ended up on top.

China is the next logical step, but it's very possible that nobody will end up on top and the markets will become a fucking wreck.

US Balkanization when

The dollar is still the world reserve currency, so the US could print money to get out of a bind, but it would probably lose reserve status after that.

I think at that point none of it matters.

So if there is a crash will property values drop? Please say yes.

You're scaring me boys

this. the racism thing is to keep people on the edge, thinking about other things. either on the pain you can cause the weaker races or how to avoid it.
america is already pre-fascistic in the last couple of years as the public discourse shifted drastically from the economic situation of the families to race and identity.
both sides are to blame

if you want a home you should just be a squatter or invade some empty house.
I have a friend who invaded 2 small empty houses for his fam.

This are we really reaching another collapse? I don't know if the left is ready to scrap together a proper response to that.

Start a Food Not Bombs, join the IWW, and learn to shoot.

At that point, it seems to me we will end up in either communism or cyberpunk dystopia. Historically speaking, capitalism has always had a dominant power to mediate world trade relations, arguably the Dutch came first, then Britain, and then later the US.

Maybe this is China-bear post #42069798 but I think their slowing down and will soon start to experience serious economic trouble and with that will come social trouble thats been building for some time but kept in check by rocket growth.

You have to look at it like this–the US economy is almost twice as large as China despite having a population almost five times as large. Since the US economy is so large that means that if the US has a good run and starts growing at 3% a year then China has to grow at 6% just to keep up. Okay, so that hasn't been a big problem for China so far in the past they've exceeded that and then some but that doesn't mean they'll continue that way in the future.

During the Great Recession, China saw a major slowdown and other factors like an aging population, massive debt build-up, colossal corruption and mismanagement, major strikes, and environmental problems. I'm not saying that the US has none of these problems, but I am saying that you have to survive long enough to get the crown in order to coast on your laurels like the US does…

It will probably come down to whether the Third World permits China to keep looting it and to intensify their looting as they are currently doing. Eventually opposition to China's expansionism will arise and it will get drawn into some quagmire like the US did in Vietnam or here's perhaps a better parallel, like the Soviets did in Afghanistan.

Even the treasury bonds and dollars that China holds gives them little leverage since the US can always inflate away their real value, which brings me to

Yes, the US can and does print money to get itself out of jams. They are careful not to allow things to get too out of hand lest they end up with a repeat of the 70s. The renminbi being the representative of the currency of the weaker super-power cannot take over as the main reserve currency anytime soon. If China were to abitrarily revalue her currency higher in order to "prove" that it was the real economic super-power then it would be lose an enormous amount of export dollars and suddenly find itself inundated with imports from rival powers.That still would not make it the reserve currency, as the pound and euro are generally more valuable then the dollar and the dollar is still the reserve currency. It may even put the dollar in higher demand.

The world gold supply is the true limit to how many dollars the US can print, if it prints too many of them or if a crisis sends capitalists scrambling to put their money in gold then it approaches the limits of its flexibility. A gold denominated currency would be the best solution for a super-power looking to overtake the US but then again the US has the world's largest gold supply and would largely see any major buy-up campaign as a threat and continue to build up their own war-chest.
forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/05/26/top-10-countries-with-the-largest-gold-reserves/#7eefeefd730a

Props for these quality posts user. Much appreciated.
So what would this incoming crash look like anyway? Because from what you've said, it doesn't sound like the capitalism ending crash some of /lefty/ are hoping for

PLEASE

You can still write it user

Your post makes the same assumption about the growth rate of the US economy as you claim I'm making of the Chinese one. It's fair to point out that the Chinese economy can't continue it's stunning growth rates forever. It's unfair to gloss over all those reports after the Great Recession that predicted long-term depressed growth rates in the advanced economies. Looking at events in Japan after the 90s bank crash as a model, I'd wager that the Chinese are going to find the competition easier to beat than you seem to be predicting. Urbanizing peasantry is nothing new.

You're also quite bold if you think inflating away debt is going to be a palatable solution for a US administration. The effects on the pension pots of its own aging population would make it unthinkable for the politicians.

Nah nigga. Organization will arise from the chaos. People aren't stupid. When shit hits the fan there are people who pick it up. Honestly organizing in preparation would only go so far. It's hard to predict exactly how a crisis will happen and what the appropriate response is. We can't think of ourselves as the prophets who lead people the right way. Our job is to coordinate people to come together at the right time so that the people can band together and form a resistance appropriate to the moment.

Quite the assumption to base your hopes around…

This isn't surprising coming from the mouth of someone that doesn't understand Marx.

A marketsucc should read books, not write them.

>>>Holla Forums
>>>/cuck/
>>>/out/

Not really an assumption. Look at crises all over the world. There are always people who organize in response and get shit done. What we need to do is find those people, get involved, and point to the problem and the solution.

To kill all them niggers and beaners who ruined the good ol' USA maybe.

The only successful revolutions have come from well established organizations that were active for years in advance. You can't just do nothing and then organize the entire effort successfully starting only when shit is going down.

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We're reaching the end of the present industrial cycle, right now we're in the end of the boom phase having emerged from the wreckage of 2007-8 only a mere ten years ago. In spite of the doom and gloom, even from the mainstream press, the core capitalist nations such as the US have been recovering as evidenced by the fact that the US unemployment rate has hit a 16 year low at 4.3%–other major economies seem to be falling suit.

The FED interest rate is at 1.25% after years of trying to stimulate the sluggish US economy with 0% interest rates. The FED knows what their doing in this respect years of 0% interest rates and free-money give-aways have created inflation which they deem cannot go on now that the market can bear a higher interest rate. They want to not only discourage inflation but to keep the system from building up anymore bubbles and massive debt-overhang then it already has.

In 2011 gold hit a record high against the dollar at $1,972 an ounce since then it has fallen by almost 700 dollars in value. From what I can tell it seems that America is experiencing a "golden inflation" of the old type which is not artificially-induced by monetary policy. This usually goes hand-in-hand with high profits, economic prosperity and high-prices, and indeed, all is not well in Camelot as many are complaining of high rents, high cost of living, lower quality/smaller consumer goods at high prices etc. These conditions typically create the conditions that lead to a drastic overproduction of goods. Corporate profits are up after-all and soon production and consumption will hurtle passed a point where all the debt issued after the previous crisis suddenly becomes unsustainable when money becomes tight.

Then there will be a crisis and usually failing banks and sudden tightness of credit is a warning sign as what looks like a mere banking crisis begins to spread to the rest of the economy.

The last fed attempt to beat the market by being careful not to expand the money supply as they did in 2007-2008 resulted in record oil prices and high-consumer prices in the middle of a depression combined with soaring gold prices. It flew in the face of economic orthodoxy both Keynesian and neoliberal.

They will not try that again; after more then doubling the money supply after 2008 the dollar was saved but the average American was largely robbed of any improvement in the standard of living that might've occurred thanks to the resulting dollar depreciation. What I think will happen is that the FED and the other central banks will be forced to bite the bullet and raise interest rates like the hated central bankers of old, and probably by a lot.

We will probably see a new Volcker shock that will wreck the developing world, average consumers, and businesses who were banking on low-interest to stay afloat. It will likely be a severe crash but a short-one if things follow this scenario as money will pile in to the financial sector and government bonds to take advantage of high-interest rates and gold prices are much higher then what they were when gold was at its lowest point in 1999, then commodity values were much higher against gold then they are now. Gold production is already strong and gold prices have been adjusted to better reflect their real value against commodities. I don't see this being a case like during the Depression or even 2008 where the money commodity was undervalued in comparison to commodity prices.

I only see this prediction being wrong if 1. there is colossal mismanagement in response to the crisis 2. automation has created a surplus of commodities so great that the value of commodities must fall by an even more massive proportion then they did in 2008 despite the relatively high gold prices of the present moment.

If money-printing is the response to the crisis it is relatively simple, just like in the 70s money will flow into gold pushing the price up higher and higher and encouraging more people to put their money into gold until the resulting currency devaluation and capital flight forces the central banks, particularly the FED to slam the brakes on it.

Schemes like negative interest rates can only hasten the absolute overproduction of capital, particularly fictitious capital and I wouldn't be surprised if those countries adopting this policy were hit hard. If this was adopted during a crisis it would certainly make it worse.

For those wishing for the death of the US Emprie, the Volcker shock only entrenched the dollar-standard and made global nvestors more confident in the US government.

The class war isn't about convincing children to be leftist ideologist you fucking idiot.

The CNT-FAI is conspicuously missing from your list, even though the organization behind the revolution that is the anarchists' pride and joy was also an organization that had existed for decades by then. Did the CNT-FAI crush the spontaneous Spanish revolution?

You what now? The unemployment rate is that low because so many people stopped looking for work. Unemployment isn't a measure of out-of-work people over potential workers. It's a measure of active job seekers over current workers plus active job seekers. Unemployment figures ignore the people who are no longer searching for jobs, something that happens more and more now. The unemployment figure is smoke and mirrors.

That's always been the case. Don't you think its odd that in the 1960s when unemployment numbers were arguably subjected to higher standards then they are now and unemployment rates were far-lower then they are today that workers and students were rebelling and even rioting against the powers that be?

In the US, blacks rioted in more then 100 cities across the US including those states without segregation and isn't that interesting that groups of people gainfully employed under the Keynesian compromise would do that? Watch any documentary from the time on that subject and you'll see there was serious unemployment and poverty in the ghettos in the 60s just like today.

Unemployment figures have never been that useful for workers since they do not calculate unemployment in the terms that workers do–mainly how easy it is to get well-paying, enjoyable or tolerable full-time job for anyone that wants one. But they still are useful for economic analysis unless you think all the unemployed became students, housewives, or retired. It isn't that easy to get or stay on welfare in America either so most people have to stay looking for work. There are also objectively more jobs and more people employed then before the crisis: data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Even the U-6 unemployment rate is falling which is more broad and better addresses your concerns then the U-3 that is loudly advertised in the press and by politicians all the time.

at best we have 2 years, at worst we have 6 month. we're strating to organize.
Many differents people are setting up meeting, action to help spread class conscious.

Do you part talk to people, infiltrate, educated, do what must be done.

And eat healthy. you don't want to have diarrhea when the revplution started.

fuck up cianigger

So you say it will be a relatively short crisis? But what damage will it do?

I love it when stalinists spontaneously recreate bordiga's criticism of activism.

Holy fuck look up how this bank operated, it's basically legalised loan sharking.

"Provident grew rapidly in the years after the financial crisis, stepping in to offer credit to people who could not secure it from banks, as they became more wary of risky lending.

Interest rates on such loans are typically high, with £100 borrowed from Provident over 13 weeks incurring a repayment of £143. The division has about £500m out on loan.

Earlier this year it announced changes to its traditional business model of sending self-employed sales agents door to door, offering loans and collecting debts.

It replaced them with 2,500 full-time “customer experience managers”, who would be connected to head office via iPads, their time managed more efficiently thanks to analytical software.

The result has been a fall in its debt collection rates from 90% last year to just 57%.

Analyst Stuart Duncan of Peel Hunt said: “They’ve taken a model which was centuries old and have pretty much broken it.”"

Self employed door to door debt collectors on a 5% weekly interest rate, yeah I'm sure nothing shady went on there.

Getting shot in the head is a relatively short crisis, for example.

Well, the Volcker shock in 1979 pushed up interest rates to an unprecedented 20% and consumer rates where high for a long-time afterwards, the economic chaos was so hard on the developing world that I've heard it claimed they didn't truly surpass their previous levels of economic until around 1996.

If the FED spikes interest rates then there will probably be mass unemployment and economic carnage. We probably won't see Volcker-tier rates unless the devaluation of the dollar becomes tremendous. Commodities will likely fall and in that sense employed workers may see a rise in their standards of living.

The build-up of debt in the system will be cleared but through the massive bankruptcies particularly that of the wealthy who are carrying the most debt. I don't see another bailout as politically possible or easy considering the tremendous debt load the US is carrying. A debt-wipe out will reduce inequality by wiping out or writing much of the elite's fictious capital but it will be bought up by the surving capitalists who will likely become a more exclusive and more wealthy group then before.

Because the Great Recession was so severe and drawn out it may allow them to get away lighter then they otherwise might've and in-turn in some countries it could allow a boom with faster sustained growth then the last cycle.

Much of our "boom" imo got wiped out by crisis management strategies adopted by the central
banks that were designed to preserve capital values that simply weren't sustainable because the rich would've been disproportionately harmed.

I don't disagree with the leftcom critique of activism inherently, it does interest me but I do want somebody to do something

Lol that's very true. I definitely don't think it will be like Black Monday in 1987 where the stock market collapsed for a few days and then it snapped back and things were back to relative normalcy.

Excited

So do we, we're just very averse to the frivolous bullshit the "radlibs" you mentioned tend to engage in.

Says who? As long as you dont make them ead de fugging salad burgers will put up with any political fuckery. They've had two presidents that didn't win the election in a decade.

Bail ins soon fellow gommie. It's gonna be great seeing cops cordon off banks to keep angry people trying to storm them to get their money back.

People were pissed as fuck about the original bailout. If it weren't for Obama putting a happy black face on it there would have been riots as thousands of people got their homes taken while the people responsible for it got bonus pay checks in the millions.

Burgers are dumb on the whole, but even they aren't that dumb.

why are bourgies so fucking dumb?

they've pushed up the rates. It's at 1.25% now.

Daaaaamn

So, there's a number of issues with this. First we must squabble over the facts and figures.

Only "official" unemployment figures, that doesn't include the long term unemployed. See 1st picture. Labor force participation rate is lowest in 27 years. There's a huge chunk of the population that has stopped looking for work altogether.

No, it doesn't. Despite the rate increase and "low unemployment figures" there's zero inflation in the economy. Meaning, the FED was too quick to pull the trigger and this will have a reverse effect on the economy, meaning sluggish growth. For more, see here. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-20/yellen-draghi-head-to-jackson-hole-as-prices-wallow-below-goal People are speculating that the only reason FED raised the rates is because they wanted to have the interest rate tool in its box to handle the coming downturn.

The dollar has not depreciated against other currencies in the last 10 years, in fact the reverse has happened. See picture 2.

So here is a question. I think I follow your analysis (though I'm sloppy so maybe I'll sound like I'm confusing things), and I've been thinking as well that the central bank would have to basically allow a big crash to happen because any attempt to sustain the current rich would be catastrophic as well. What I'm curious about is whether or not this is essentially always possible with capitalist crash. As in, if there is a crises of overproduction, which I think you're saying there is, and the bank allows capitalists to default on debts and lose money all across the economy, and interest rates result in money flowing back into the banks to get lent out (which all resembles a "reset" to me), could the solution to crises always be to allow a "reset" of the economy back to a new industrial cycle?

And if that is the case isn't capitalism, though prone to crises, essentially self-stabilizing enough that if people don't do something during the crises, it will just resuscitate itself every time? I'm just wondering who is more right in this debate about what is to be done in crises. Some people say that we hope for spontaneous revolution, others say we have to be ready or we will miss the chance. Some people also seem to think capitalism can totally collapse at some point.

I live in Arizona, and I think US fascism might be Hispanic based. I say that because I see most of the white people ocuppy redundant managerial jobs while all the real work is done by Mexicans. I work in IT and I consistently get the highest productivity numbers, my white coworkers form this clique and cover for each other's slacking.
I see this all over the state, at constuction sites, when I call a service tech a white person answers the phone but a brown guys shows up to do it. There's been this weird animosity I've seen build up. On one had plenty of Hispanics will complain bittlerly at the pretty obvious soft apartied, but still aspire and admire white people
TL;DR brown people litterally have their levers on all the material sources of power (water, electricity, civil engineering, telecommunications etc) while white people have wholes themselves up in glass towers pulling down 10'times the pay.

THIS IS NOT A DRILL

Wall St. is bailing out of the market. If you have holdings liquidate them. It's actually happening.

archive.is/Bt27p

hold me Holla Forums

FASTER

MY BODY IS READY

This'll be painful.

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>question catgirl4534.jpg

myaaaa! mya mya mya mya mya !!!

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I think I love you user

I am going to say this, since you are probably not from Greece

Don't waste your chance.

Our nation's left has become a zombie of it's former self. The 9 year old crisis has devastated the left and now we can't even organize a proper strike. We are done for. And honestly my only hope lies in the left of the west, as depressing as this sounds.

Please don't fuck this up.

Does yanis still have any credibility in greece anymore?

I'm Italian mate. We are the next greece if everythings continue like this. Malaka

Well he's considered by neoliberals and the right as "a dangerous politician", while the left is conflicted.

Personally I respect him and can say that at least he tried againist the whole EU

Can it be?

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post la tua faccia quando italy leads the world revolution

Who are you quoting? Ah, your parody of Lenin, I see.

Yes, that's what Leninists actually strive for. Oh, wait, no. That's your parody again. My mistake.

What a great post. Debating Leninism with (some) anarchists is like trying to debate patriarchy with a liberal activist. You'll get shouted at, you'll get told what you really stand for, what your position really is and then, the the obligatory call for repentance at the end:

I'll check my privilege right away.

Salvini mentre abbatte una fila di kulaki

Come on nigger

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Spain
Italy
Germany
UK

lurk moar

The problem with using unemployment as a metric for recovery is that it intentionally excludes the low labor force participation data. Millions of people are not counted as unemployed because they just gave up on looking for work.
As for the rest of your assessment, that the fed will raise rates in the middle of a crash, there's absolutely no evidence that Yellen would do that. She's of the same school of thought as Greenspan and Bernanke. I'd say the odds are high of her just slashing rates to zero and then panicking because the problem won't go away. Whatever the Fed does after that is anybody's guess.

m.ilgiornale.it/news/2017/04/08/salvini-e-il-dilemma-su-trump-tradisce-le-sue-idee-non-va/1383691/

Or took part time jobs.

if he was an accelerationist wouldn't he support bombing the shit out of the middle east?

That all fine and dandy, but when DotCom crash 2.0 DLC comes out?

Not to mention the precariat.

Yeah probably. It was for memes sake tho. I don't have good greggio reaction images

probably late winter/early spring.

...

I'm thinking more like June/July. We'll see, though. Here's hoping it's sooner.

I will try. Thank you Comrade.

Write that shit in Nazi blood.

Please user, tells us what your childish, sensationalist, idea of what class war is like. Do you happen to be riding a tank and shooting a bunch of policemen?

Dude, this is so true. I thought this was just a California thing; In L.A. all the whites have make-believe jobs as consultants, desk jockeys or some bs in the show biz while the hispanics and asians are the ones actually working as manual, technical or professional laborers.

It's fucking weird too, I'm not an idpoler but you'd have to be very blind to not realize we live in de-facto apartheid.

Getting that way around DC, too.

More happening

cnbc.com/amp/2017/08/23/new-home-sales-hit-571000-units-in-july-vs-estimate-of-610000.html

What is wrong with conspiracy theories? They are just like any other theory, they are either true of false, and one has to research what is the case.

My parents better fucking sell that house soon.

I've never been to Saudi Arabia personally, but I've heard about a very similar phenomena there. They have migrants doing the majority of their work, while the natives enjoy executive positions producing effectively nothing.

I've also heard that this is somewhat of an issue within their military - the people they're hiring to fly those jets the buy from the US all grew up in a culture where serious, hard work wasn't really ever expected of them, so they end up with shitty pilots who barely know how to fly these complex war-machines. A revolution in S.A. would be fascinating to watch from afar.

CERTIFIED HAPPENING

I wouldnt quete put an oil state at the same level as the USA, especially since in those oil states all the important military positions go to family and supporters of the king.

I agree, just pointing out that it's an interesting trend in modern (and more wealthy) capitalist societies, that they effectively still have a pretty large slave class, usually made up of immigrants, keeping most-everything rolling working for the natives.

Whatever happens after all this, happens. Tonight, drinks are on me, lefties.

I'm starting to get tingly buckos. Can we do it?

Oh you mean like the last fifty times society almost had an economic collapse? Money doesn't mean shit if the government can just bail out these corporations with impunity and the doped out public goes and does the five minute hate in front of city hall.

You mean, not at all? 2008 made Occupy possible in 2011. Occupy made Bernie possible in 2016. Bernie made Corbyn possible in 2017. The dialectical processes of history marches on and currently the actual Left, which has been beyond moribund for decades, is finally starting to piece itself back together.

A major economic crash would validate every single thing the Sandman–currently the most popular politician in the entire US, and last I looked the only one with a double digit approval rating–said during the election.

The Republicans have spent the last decade making fools of themselves and the Democrats have spurned one of their most important demographics in order to support someone that is popularly viewed as one of the slimiest and most unscrupulous politicians in the country.

If there were a massive market crash, say a total system shutdown as in 08, there is the very real potential that we could be witness to one of the biggest shifts in public consciousness since Pearl Harbor.

...

It couldn't be more poetic if Shakespeare himself wrote it.

We REALLY should have been preparing for this the whole time. Man I would not like to be a burger right now, shits gonna pop

Damn son. Serving up the good shit

You have given me a flicker of hope today, comrade.

Thank you.

Yes, it is "self-stabilizing" in a sense, capitalism was making it through crises more then a century before Keynes, Freidman, Greenspan, Bernanke or whoever the fuck claims to have "discovered" the secret formula to prevent crises or at least manage them better.

The old theories that capitalism would recover if left to its own devices under went a serious challenge because not only was the Great Depression bigger then any crisis people had experienced but it lasted quite a long time.

Williams has an interesting theory why the Great Depression was so severe which is that commodity prices became increasingly detached from labor-values due to the gold deflation of the 1890s and WWI, when the market corrected itself, what was being hailed as the greatest bull market yet corrected itself into the worst depression ever experienced.
critiqueofcrisistheory.wordpress.com/does-capitalist-production-have-a-long-cycle/does-capitalist-production-have-a-long-cycle-pt-8/

Whether capitalist politicians "allow" a reset as you put it or try to put it off matters little to the industrial cycle themselves. They can make things worse as recent history has shown and trade old problems for new problems.

A good example is the stagflation of the 70s instead of catastrophic deflation of money against commodities which had followed most recessions, there was a catastrophic level of inflation that ate into the standard of living of most workers and sent capitalists scurrying to inflation-resistant sectors.

I would point out that the deflation that Marx incorporates into his account of the industrial cycle did occur the price of commodities against the money commodity (gold) fell to a great degree whereas the commodities inflated against the depreciating dollar. Since workers weren't paid in gold bullion or even dollars representing a fixed amount of bullion anymore all they could do is sit back and take it. That is very largely similar to what happened in the last recession as well.

There are factors that limit capitalism's life-span of course
critiqueofcrisistheory.wordpress.com/historical-materialism-and-the-inevitable-end-of-capitalism/factors-that-limit-the-life-span-of-the-capitalist-system/
Even assuming there's no rebellion at all capitalism will eventually fully-consume the supply of human labor available to it. But I don't see a total collapse occurring in the near-future but the thing is that most capitalist societies, which are composed of human beings after all, are far more brittle then capitalism, so after the World Wars we saw the expansion of socialism to 1/3 of the globe and, as Lenin himself knew, capitalism then wasn't close to realizing its structural limits yet.

So, in response to your question, you have to be ready even if opposition to capitalism arises spontaneously imo it needs good leadership to succeed. If there is no force that is ready it will often fail to take advantage of the resulting contradictions.

The fetishization of Depression years by the Left is a bit disconcerting too because history has shown that without a credible alternative people can allow themselves to get ground beneath capitalism's wheels and indeed, during Depressions, higher rates of unemployment disempower workers who are still employed.

Boom years can also be good for class struggle, there was a hell of a lot of organizing and struggle in the boom years before WWI, the 1920s, and in the 1960s. Booms bring more workers into the workplace and into the struggle and the lessening of the reserve army of labor empowers workers in the struggle against their bosses.

So, I would conclude that the Left in the US and elsewhere let not only the opportunity presented by the Great Recession slip by but the opportunities presented by the boom period whatever little bit there was as well.

his name says it all

Oh shit

I've already dealt with this in another post:

Even the U-6 is falling and its probably the best unemployment measure that we have. I don't know if I believe all that ShadowStats garbage about 22-25% unemployment but I do think the U-3 is inaccurate on the whole. The U-6 is probably the best bourgeois measure of unemployment that there is which is why it was quietly nixed in the 90s. They still keep tabs on it tho.

The US has an aging population, I would not be surprised if mass retirement combined with increased college education and a growing trend of stay at home wives/moms explained the decline in labor force participation.

Now, if you'd permit me to be a bit contrarian for a moment I'd probably say the figures are even more cooked then job figures. There are good incentives for why the government would not want its inflation measures to be all that accurate as it means they have to expand their pension and welfare commitments in line with the resulting inflation:
forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-you-want-to-know-the-real-rate-of-inflation-dont-bother-with-the-cpi/#30d01ad6200b

Last time, I checked official inflation rates were around 1.3-1.7% okay that's not too extreme but then again there's also been the inflation that Americans have went through during the crisis years and that has been taking place against a backdrop of stagnant wages.

Shrinkflation is already being seen on a large scale in the UK and as a US consumer I see parallels here even if our situation is not as bad:
telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/news/shrinkflation-10-food-products-have-got-smaller-since-brexit/

You misunderstand my point entirely. It is not that the dollar has depreciated against other currencies, most nations are not content to allow their currency to appreciate against the dollar because it will often mean US-exports will outprice their domestic goods even if their wages are lower.

My point is that the dollar has depreciated against gold which is the actual money commodity and not the dollar. In 1997 the dollar-price of gold was 287 dollars an ounce, its lowest point since the 70s, and after the successive crises of the late 90s and later 2007-8 the dollar was devalued to the point that it was worth nearly 2000 dollars an ounce which constituted the largest dollar-price of gold spike since the record high in early 1980 and the highest dollar price of gold of all time.

When you measure commodities in their gold prices it becomes clear there was a depreciation in commodity prices after the crisis but this was largely covered up by the depreciation of the dollar against gold. That also ties into my point about inflation when you look at the fairly dramatic fall in prices in gold terms then it becomes clear that inflation must be far more severe then what is captured in bourgeois inflation measures in order to override the fall of commodity prices as a result of overproduction as a tendency.

I'm glad, user. I try not to be over-optimistic, because I think that can be just as detrimental as hopelessness, but I think there is real-deal-actually-existing reason to be hopeful. That isn't to say that we should be complacent. It's very much like a wide patch of parched, dusty earth. It was fertile once and thriving, but abuse and neglect withered it away to nothing. Yet the seeds are still there, the roots run deep, and if we work hard, all of us, together, then we can make them flower again. We'll make the fields of our toil and bondage into gardens of plenty enough for all. I think it's within our power. I think we can do it. But it isn't going to just happen, not unless we make it happen.

Well good luck with that optimism

I don't know if I should be nervous, excited, or apathetic

Here's to acceleration baby

Who could have figured that making property value obscenely expensive would result in people not buying homes.

I don't know how to feel either, I'm already in a part-time retail position at a location that has been hour-cutting since i got there. Don't know if I'll even have a job when this is all over

mfw

If the market crashes on Trump's watch now, I don't know how he won't be the most unpopular man in American history. There's no recovering from his recent hiccups, if the market crashes right after, how the fuck does he even recover from that

He already is

Yeah but how could it get

worse

...

How is this suposed to be good?

Hillary will take the election from Bernie again and present herself as the saviour.

I like your optimism.

the egalitarian flag poster is a Holla Forums falseflagger, ignore him

So realistically how much time before this collapse?

And is this even a collapse? Anons ITT are making it sound more like the '70s than the '30s

Might have been my Ron Paul days talking. So then how big will this recession be and when is it estimated to happen?

Here's something I've always been wondering about: is there a tech phone bubble? There's no way that a whole market based on selling people a new phone– a product that is hardly any different from the previous one– year after year can't be safe.

It has been sustained up until now by phones being fragile as fuck and developers putting out increasingly bloated software.

I doubt it'll be as big as 2008, but for most regular people who are just getting back to normal this will be a huge kick in the balls. It confirms that periodic crashes and stagnant, unequal "recoveries" are the new normal.

I'm in agreement with some of the other posters in that this isn't "IT", but merely helps set the stage for "IT". In my opinion, the opportunity for radical change will not come until we start seeing direct negative impacts of global warming on people's lives (e.g. food prices spiking, cities flooded, etc.)

Yeah. Good luck having a phone last more than a few years before it can barely run, its battery won't recharge, and the screen gets broken. And you gotta love it when old people act like this is because young people don't know how to take care of their shit.

At which point humanity might well be doomed anyway, given the latency between CO2 increases and environmental effects.

The problem is that by then it'll be too late. The main reason I'm a leftist at all is because capitalism will doom the vast, vast majority of humanity to accelerated climate change.

Will 1970's America: Part II turn BLM into the BPs?

This is pure goldbug nonsense. All the facts that don't align with your pet theory is explained away by a conspiracy to hide figures.

Bump

Really? I wouldn't even say that there's a "conspiracy to hide the figures" only that bourgeois neoclassical economics uses completely different frameworks and because of this misses key aspects of the story. To underscore this those economists gold is just another commodity it is not essential to their story the idea of a money commodity in the Marxian sense is foreign to their frameworks; capitalists on the other hand watch the price of gold very closely, and central banks stock-pile tons of gold "for collateral" it is assumed but then if gold is just another commodity why stockpile it? That would be like stockpiling bananas and putting them under military guard at Fort Know. Maybe its because deep down they know that gold is money but they don't know how to fit it into their frameworks, or they assume if they think about it that its merely another kind of money idk.

As for the point about "conspiracy theorizing" the reaction to what I've had to say is telling.

*Fort Knox

This hybrid Goldbuggian-Marxism is quite fascinating. Please keep going.

God I fucking hope so

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Do you realize that that's a historical claim, subject to numerous historical conditions?

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What's the money commodity then?

Don't you mean… BIZARRO 4/POL/?

hell yeah motherfucker

Christ I don't know economics for shit.

bizarro I love you

kill yourself

daily reminder that America is a reactionary shithole and that if this happens we will be seeing only one type of "red" flag: that with the Swastika on it.

sorry guys, if shit goes south, I'm moving to fucking Haiti.

SHIT EVERYTHING IS GOING TO SHIT
ONE DAY WE WILL HAVE THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT OF RESOURCES BUT THE NEXT DAY WE WILL PRETEND LIKE WE CAN'T ACCESS THEM

OMG GO BUY MILK

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

do not suggest that

wtf i need some milk now

it will be at a better condition than whatever America will be by that time.

Yep. Most anarchists are highly critical of the CNT-FAI's collaboration with the government and with its subordination of the factory committees to state control.

It's a historical fact. 1917 was a generally turbulent year, with many uprisings throughout and continuing into 1918 (see: attempted 3rd Russian Revolution of left-SRs and anarchists), but the soviets which arose across Russia did so spontaneously. It was starkly and unequivocally spontaneous in 1905.

Nope, the actual Lenin
own, the working class cannot go beyond
the level of trade union consciousness, the
realisation that they must combine into trade
unions, fight against the employers, force
the governments to pass such laws as benefit
the conditions of the workers…As for the
socialist doctrine, it was constructed out of
the philosophical, historical and economic
theories elaborated by educated members of
the ruling class by intellectuals.
You are the parody here - a parody of socialism

…only for them to usurp the power of the soviets and declare themselves the rightful representatives of the entire proletariat. Would-be priests!
That's not what that quote means.
Consciousness isn't something you "spread". It spontaneously arises in the course of day to day life under capitalism and the conditions it creates.

struggle.ws/anarchism/writers/anarcho/anarchism/bakunindictator.html

They're literally eating clay off the hill

America isn't white enough for Nazis to take over so easily. More likely, it will turn into the bloodiest civil war in history and turn the country to ruins.

Getting out is still a really good fucking idea.

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I'm getting out myself in three years, but I still don't buy the civil war narrative; it just doesn't make any sense. Porky wouldn't ever let any sort of mass civil war occur at all, it would hurt profits.

70s style terrorism still sounds the most likely

Boy I sure can't wait for the Murican Troubles.

Wars take money. Who's footing the bill? It wouldn't benefit any billionaire who could conceivably fund it.
Don't buy into their rhetoric about Obama-era "socialist taxes" - they're not even close to being high enough to encourage industrialists to secede into a Southern Walmarttopia and give the Northeast and West to Canada. In fact, America is becoming a tax haven.

I'll take it, if that's what's offered.

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Bump