"looming crash"

Ive heard a load of talk about a "looming economic crash" on leftypol, wheres the proof of this. All I've been seeing is geopolitical instability and economist saying that years of stagnation are coming, but no talk about a coming crash by economist.

Other urls found in this thread:

penguinrandomhouse.com/books/533258/how-will-capitalism-end-by-wolfgang-streeck/9781784784010/
motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/us-power-will-decline-under-trump-says-futurist-who-predicted-soviet-collapse
thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2017/04/19/gaining-momentum/
marxists.org/reference/archive/smith-cyril/works/millenni/smith4.htm.
edensauvage.wordpress.com/2016/12/09/marxs-dialectical-method/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2005-08-21/online-extra-china-is-a-private-sector-economy
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
podplayer.net/#/?id=32730996
podplayer.net/#/?id=34305762
gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=A6D5BD70A72F778F26530A2A692DE50A
gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=D591CCA81F723B6FA8F920C6E6250FD9

chinese debt

China is going to implode and take the west with it. Mao will finally get his revenge.

wat?

how exactly will china implode? (not doubting just curious)

Can I get some articles to read about this "coming crash"

penguinrandomhouse.com/books/533258/how-will-capitalism-end-by-wolfgang-streeck/9781784784010/

There's none, is just our version of the happening.

I'm not even knowledgeable of economics or crisis theory to know when a crisis is or isn't coming or what causes it, but I'm knowledgeable of Holla Forums to know most people here have no idea of what they're talking about and are just parroting memes.

China is trying to move from a production oriented economy to a consumption oriented economy. That has never happened without a crash so far.

China has started issuing financial instruments that are eerily similar to CDOs. It's only a matter of time before the house of cards comes tumbling down. There's been a lot of movement on the Chinese bond market as a result. That's probably also why Trump stopped being so aggressive towards them as well. He knows that if he destabilizes the economy his class is done for.

Besides China, there's also the matter that most of the architects of the 2007/08 crash were never really punished and continue to operate unethically. This isn't even a secret - pretty much everyone knows what they're doing and what that does, but they are literally just too corrupt to stop them.

Stop it. You can't examine China's economy using something other than Dialectical ML economics. That's like trying to weigh yourself in meters.

so were just waiting for the china bubble to crash, is there no other sector at risk of crashing.

massively over invested
over reliant on the rest on the world
faith based stock market investments by locals
property prices as high as the uk with 1/4 the wages
managed to get to same the debt/income level in 6 years that the us achieved in 17

Like, you can take, note, too… when banks like Wells-Fargo were bailed out, they actually ended up using the money to buy banks that HADN'T been participating in the unethical practices or had had less of a role but still suffered due to the crash.

There's basically a crash every dozen years, you don't need any particular evidence to predict one is coming up (though as for evidence, a lot of the things that happened running up to both the 2008 crash AND the dot com crash are happening again…)

Is this zany irony?

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There is currently a new car loan bubble that is similar to the sub-prime mortgage bubble

No.

are you for real

Australia, Norway, S.Korea.
UK is slowing down notably in key indicators - house prices dropped last month for the first time, used car market and classic car auctions eerily quiet. a storm's coming..


lel

*in about 7 years.

...

if you don't know anything about the chinese economy you shouldn't post in this thread

"God, I hope another major first world conflict erupts or another global economic crash. Just…like, not where I live cuz I'm too young to die."

-Holla Forums

Chinese economy isn't nationalized or planned. The party functions as a sort of all-powerful regulatory agency/oligarchy and that's it. They dismantled the PRC long ago. The best thing that could happen would be a fucking nuclear war that obliterates Beijing.

why?

I honestly hope my neighborhood gets nuked, and I'm old enough to have died a lot of times.

You're confusing socialism with communism.


Not an argument.


Socialism can't degenerate into capitalism without either a collapse or a counter-revolution. Tell me when those happened in China.

And you are confusing socialism for capitalism.

Meant to quote>>1653920

Socialism is workers' state ownership of the means of production.

I'm sorry but you're too stupid to have this discussion, please leave.

...

It literally wasn't an argument though

No socialism is the abolition of the wage system, private property and production for exchange.

and what? do you want a cookie for noticing, you cretin?

The means of production involves the entire economy obviously

No, that's communism

Read a fucking book

You should just say that socialism is the abolition of production for exchange. Private property is a consequence of production for exchange and wage labour is a consequence of private property. It doesn't make sense to separate them like that, it incorrectly suggests that you could get rid of either or both of private property/wage labour alone.

Marx doesn't draw a distinction and neither should you, pleb.

well that's another thread shitted up

Daily reminder that China and more specifically the Chinese Communist Party is still socialist and that if they crash the global economy it will likely be intentional. You faggots sure feel sorry for mocking Maoism once they are at the head of the global socialist state.

Marxism-Leninism has made many invaluable contributions.

Fixed.

Thats why the list uses 'and' and not 'or' it's all or nothing

Yep, let's just look at all those successful Leftcom/Trotskyist/Anarchist experiments!

…Oh fucking wait.

Khrushchev > Stalin

Literally, unironically, and in all seriousness fucking kill yourself.

Holla Forums is like zerohedge: russiaboos who have successfully predicted 234 of the last 0 crashes since 2007.

You don't have any successes under your belt either, why do you fuckers always pull out this smug as fuck non-argument?

t. real estate agent in 2007

Pic mildly related.

everyone underestimated the capitalist`s will to keep the system afloat

Funny how all their rules went out of the window to save their arses. With all the trouble they caused they could have completely re-engineered the economic system instead of lumbering us with this malfunctioning pile of shit. I fucking hate this political class.

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Why the fuck did this thread degenerate into shit. So from my understanding now chinas economy can collapse because they're doing things that have made other countries economy collapse. There's a car bubble in the U.K., and there's stagnation every where.

And I pointed out that China is a socialist economy and therefore not subject to the same market forces as Western capitalist countries.

China's economy very well may collapse, but it won't be due to capitalist phenomenon like "housing bubbles".

And then the entire rest of the thread dogpiled on you for retardedly thinking that China's economy is anything other than capitalism with heavy state intervention.

Nigga they have a stock market where random idiots off the street buy stocks because they like the tits on the CEO or their lucky numbers showed up in the phony earnings data.
You have no idea what it's like on a street level in Shanghai, gtfo.

Please be trolling

You get cycles around 8.5 years then it goes bad bad good bad bad good

So for example you have great depression + wwII for 17 years, then 9 years, then stagflation for 17 years, then 9 years, then GFC

China falls in 2034 and if will be the largest world economy then

Empirically

I've heard people say that there is a student loan bubble waiting to burst for years, although not so much recently. Is there any truth to this?

Student loans have to be repaid. There is no bubble. You can thank evil uncle Joe for that.

The fact that at least in america you can't escape student loans with a bankruptcy I don't see a crash happening just a slow excruciating crunch for the proles

I mean, you graduates suddenly losing their jobs and being unable to pay it back will at least inflict more power on the swing.

That's pretty much the biggest hope right now, that China is slow-rolling a purge of revisionists.

meant to say new graduates

So new graduates who lose their jobs or cannot find work will further hurt the federal and private lenders and new graduates who do have jobs are going to have their wages garnished and cannot participate in the economy, making the economy weaker?

So the student loan issue isn't going to be the spark, but it will be throwing fuel on the fire?

Yea now that I think about it Federal loans may have be issued by the state but they are sold of to some collection agency, so if everybody can't pay those loans it will still destroy those companies. So maybe it is possible to crash.

...

Housing prices reinflated after the crash.
Student debt is way up.
Consumer debt is way up.
Medical costs are way up.
Unemployment is "down to normal" but the numbers of unemployed people and people not seeking work are way up.
Job security is way down.
And yet despite all this, stock prices are through the goddamn roof. That's the textbook definition of a bubble, so a crash is coming. Capitalism makes it inevitable.

Last time I checked we still live under capitalism, which crashes all the time.
You think economists would get doomsday predictions published? Almost nobody foresaw 2008.

READ MARX REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

No such thing. Jesus christ, for rattling on so much about 'revisionism' you have no fucking idea where your 'marxist' theory actually comes from.

Pretty much.

Snapchat and Uber are not profitable. Cyberspace crash soon.

Besides the housing prices and China stuff people already mentioned.

Also, for some sources.

motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/us-power-will-decline-under-trump-says-futurist-who-predicted-soviet-collapse

thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2017/04/19/gaining-momentum/

Biden or Stalin?

Should I be worried?

the proof of this is it happens extremely regularly and we are just due another

we need more memes like this

I'm wondering about NEETs myself.

do you even understand dialectics, serious question

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I'm not even defending the Chinese regime. Its superstructure is horribly misformed and will require serious dialectical analysis in order to fix (possibly a whole mass movement leading to a reformation of government).

I'm just saying that they are socialist in their property/production relations and therefore should be defended as such on those specific grounds.

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Dialectics brought us the October Revolution and every successful socialist revolution since.

so none?

Something no-one's said yet is that the US stock market is booming despite underlying economic indicators being mediocre at best. There's an enormous disconnect between prices and actual economic figures and conditions and it can't last for long.

...

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STOP IT. Randomly inserting the term "dialectical" into a sentence doesn't suddenly give it meaning, but also shows that there's too many idiots like this guy who have a terrible, almost-comical understanding of what Marx even meant with dialectics.

Read niggas: marxists.org/reference/archive/smith-cyril/works/millenni/smith4.htm.

Why are Marxists such tryhards?

Dialectics is all about the synthesis of two contradicting truths in order to come to a rational whole.

I know what means.

Please kill yourself.

edensauvage.wordpress.com/2016/12/09/marxs-dialectical-method/

(You)

Both of you are being ironically anti-dialectical in your supposed (actually bourgeois liberal idealist) defense of dialectics.

the shadow banking sector in China is massively over-leveraged and you could see some of the danger of this during their stock market crash a few years ago. Instead of trying to fix the underlying problems they decided to double down so things are even more bloated

(Tú)

Weeeeeew, since when there are no private businesses and no market economy in China?

You can't make this shit up

Here, let me apply dialectics to this dispute:

(Ты)

I'm using Lenin's interpretation because Marx never fully expounded on the DotP and its relation to property forms

Have some Anti-Dühring
>The concept of value is the most general and therefore the most comprehensive expression of the economic conditions of commodity production. Consequently, this concept contains the germ, not only of money, but also of all the more developed forms of the production and exchange of commodities. The fact that value is the expression of the social labour contained in the privately produced products itself creates the possibility of a difference arising between this social labour and the private labour contained in these same products. If therefore a private producer continues to produce in the old way, while the social mode of production develops this difference will become palpably evident to him. The same result follows when the aggregate of private producers of a particular class of goods produces a quantity of them which exceeds the requirements of society. The fact that the value of a commodity is expressed only in terms of another commodity, and can only be realised in exchange for it, admits of the possibility that the exchange may never take place altogether, or at least may not realise the correct value. Finally, when the specific commodity labour-power appears on the market, its value is determined, like that of any other commodity, by the labour-time socially necessary for its production. The value form of products therefore already contains in embryo the whole capitalist form of production, the antagonism between capitalists and wage-workers, the industrial reserve army, crises. To seek to abolish the capitalist form of production by establishing "true value" {D. K. G. 78} is therefore tantamount to attempting to abolish Catholicism by establishing the "true" Pope, or to set up a society in which at last the producers control their product, by consistently carrying into life an economic category which is the most comprehensive expression of the enslavement of the producers by their own product.

You're just ignoring what the DotP actually is and how it functions.

No one denies that full liberation of the workers requires abolition of the law of value. This is why we view socialism as a necessary transition, not the goal itself.

Are you implying that socialism and communism are two different things?

Go back to /r/FULLCOMMUNISM, to update your memes, kid.

Read Lenin.

Just in case you're not rusing, 70% of the chinese GDP in 2005 was private.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2005-08-21/online-extra-china-is-a-private-sector-economy

I'm criticizing your definition of "workers' state ownership of the means of production", which is a terrible meme. Let me quote that again, except only one sentence, so you won't get lost
If the law of value is present, then you will have capitalism, as value-form is the root of all capitalist relations. Thus, even despite (arguable) "workers' ownership" you have capitalism thanks to the presence of the law of value.

*despite (arguable) "workers' ownership" in China

That's exactly the problem, m8.

Which [email protected]/* */ episode is this from?

I for one eagerly await DotCom Crash:Electric Boogalo. Imagine faces of all those "muh 300k starting" IT fags

Nah, there's still too much bullshit money flying around Silicon Valley for that to pop yet. Student debt will probably go first.

So basically China will crash b/c speculators, West will crash because of debts, DotCom crash electric boogaloo because speculators on unprofitable high-risk technology markets with no real potential for growth…
Add to that the fact that a crash in China will fuck up the production that we all moved there, so that will also get fucked up, meaning that even the more established tech companies may get a harder time getting their shit produced for cheap.
So basically, shit's gonna get fucked.
On a separate note; does anyone know what will happen to cryptocurrencies in a crash? Will people invest in it like they do with gold? Or is it part of the tech bubble?

Isn't it like one of the primary reason of market crashes?

Markets crash when bullshit money fails to translate into more bullshit money or fails to translate into real money. Silicon Valley is still attracting shit tons of investors who can make bullshit money speculating and turn that back into real money. The system hasn't hit the point yet where not enough capitalists are getting a return on investment for them to stop funding the joyride. It's unlikely to happen for a while too, because (1) there are a lot of legitimate technological strides to be made in the sector and everyone knows this, some just overestimate the potential and (2) there are STEMlords finding ways to make money on the bullshit, primarily by selling information, which is itself a sort of bubble that will pop once some unknown critical mass is reached where selling usage stats or ads hits diminishing returns and the sale no longer yields a sustainable profit for the kinds of companies that exist, prompting a big restructuring of the sector. Youtube recently had a thing where advertisers pulled back on their use of the service because they didn't think it was worth it anymore, and this part of the puzzle is probably going to see something like a domino effect in the next few years, that is, revenue from ads declining as a trend. This will spur data collection to increase to compensate, but there's no telling how long that will remain a viable avenue for profits. There is an immense quantity of data that could be collected, and nerds will always find new ways to collect the data and to apply it. Data collection will outpace standard mass advertising like Google AdSense because it will be much more efficient at selling products due to targeted advertising. Once that happens, there's no telling how long corps will be using data to sell shit or how long STEMlords will be able to exaggerate the usefulness of that data to negotiate better prices for themselves. Add in innovation and we're talking about an economic model with much more legs than current mass advertising (already on the decline) or speculative investment, which is still going strong. The mass ad bubble is already popping (see youtube), but that's one small piece of the puzzle and at best tangential to the tech sector.

And this, kids, is why you shouldn't plan for a career as a youtuber.

Not youtube, but the internet is the contemporary space for any discourse. Youtube has always been an awful platform except for the size of its userbase but people have been working around Google's porkery for a while now with shit like patreon. To be honest I think videos are in a lot of ways better for public discourse than writing, and youtube is just where that stuff happens right now. The danger of youtube careers would be with patreon or similar services being a bubble. Since those are crowdfunded by interested people, they're generally more resilient because their limit is really just the limit of disposable income among people interested in the subject.

I think this is a really good analysis but it seems restricted to tech, I think if you consider the fact that the rest of the financial economy is bullshit building on bullshit, the whole structure seems less sound. Yes, tech is an island of stability, but it lies in the path of a hurricane.

Well, my point was that the tech bubble is not some fragile thing that's about to pop. This is my original post.

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On a separate note; does anyone know what will happen to cryptocurrencies in a crash? Will people invest in it like they do with gold? Or is it part of the tech bubble?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

MLs are fucking pathetic

Cryptocurrencies go through occasional crashes too. But the price has been going up so damn much that noe one cares.

Here's the thing: buttcoin's value keeps going up and up because demand is increasing fast, as more and more normies adopt it. Once the buttcoin user population caps off at some point, things will get interesting, not the least of which because they will still be mineable despite the demand having stabilized.

[The Jason Stapleton Program] 571: Author Danielle Dimartino Booth and her Book "Fed Up."
podplayer.net/#/?id=32730996 via @PodcastAddict


[The Glenn Beck Program] 4/28/17 - Danielle DiMartino Booth […]
podplayer.net/#/?id=34305762 via @PodcastAddict

I know Beck but this woman knows her shit. Crash is a coming

Fuck you

I just grabbed this, it's an excellent read so far. Thanks

EPub: gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=A6D5BD70A72F778F26530A2A692DE50A

pdf: gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=D591CCA81F723B6FA8F920C6E6250FD9

"…and i want to you call goldline"

off topic, but glenn beck always sounds like he's having an existential crisis.