Place your bets

place your bets.

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fr.reuters.com/article/topNews/idFRKBN16017M
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Class_collaboration
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017#Opinion_polls_for_expected_second_round_of_voting
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Since_convention_nominations
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017
marxist.com/reading-guide-marxism-and-the-european-union.htm
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1824
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1836
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1860
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Who is this hagraven?

she will win

Will be on second turn against Fillon, will not win the elections.
Party will not obtain more than 5% of seats in legislative elections, despite getting probably a good 25% of votes in both these and the presidentials.
Porky will still govern France with an iron fist and not a fair one like the Bogdanov's, war will still be fought.

She can't.

why not?
the guy is toasted, history, he done goof'd !.
he.s already 3rd and everyone around him is leaving ship.

France can only win through revolution, but now the only leading independent political parties are nationalist ones. Thanks to liberal stupidity.

Though yes, the French system makes it hard for an extreme figure to win. She is currently polling to win the first round with 26% then lose to Marcon 62-38 (68-32 maybe, I forget). But a couple of stories against Marcon (or Fillon) could persuade enough moderates to stay home. Le Pen is polling well in former leftwing strongholds as are the FN nationally. She has been echoing Trump (buy French, employ French) with more socialist stuff chucked in.

I'm tempted to put money on her (currently odds at 2/1) but I want her to win it and don't want to jinx it.

Because of the two turns system. Everyone who doesn't want her would rather vote for either Hollande 2.0 or his conservative counterpart, which is what her opposition will be.

She can win in a low turnout vote. Polling puts her at 26% support. Recent events should have been enough to show you that polls have an anti-right bias. Consider that her supporters WILL out and vote. If the turnout is around 60% in the second leg she more than has a chance. And efforts to rally against her seem pretty weak as the other candidates are all same-old shit.

1) People did say brexit was going to happen, like the polls for the 2 weeks before hand showed it happening.

2) In France you actually have to win the popular vote.
:^)

But anyways, my money is on Macron; not happy about it, but I'll take a liberal porky over a fascist anyday.

real pools or american stylized pools?

A few did. Most, even over the past two weeks showed Remain winning.

What if the fascism has socialist tendencies?

French polls.

fr.reuters.com/article/topNews/idFRKBN16017M

From a purely commercial point of view, she's been indeed doing very well, and the FN is certainly an example of what a spectacle-based party should do to gain massive popular support.
But you're underestimating how much the rest of France despises her.
Trump was not only running against Hillary, but he was also the Republican nominee after a double Democrat mandate, so of course his chances were pretty high (and even then, his victory was pretty much luck).
As for Brexit, the British never liked Europe to begin with, and have always been pretty conservative, so imagining Leave could win wasn't really hard.
These two events were slightly improbable, but a Le Pen's victory is simply unthinkable. She would have to score above 50% against a moderate candidate in an election with a much higher turnout than usual. Her father got there in 2002, he lost 80% to 20% against Chirac.
Maybe she could score 35%, or even 40% if you're dreaming extra hard, but no more.
She'd need at least another five years of French madness to have serious chances to access presidency of the French Republic.
And even then, she would have to have a sizeable majority at the National Assembly if her government is to make any sense, and since the French electoral system is very heavily biased against smaller parties, I doubt that'd be possible.
For instance, I seem to recall the FN won something like 20% of the votes in the 2012 legislative elections, yet they got two seats at the National Assembly. This would mean that, even if the FN was to win the presidency, she would be severely limited in her actions and the government would likely be a mix of moderate-right and FN-right.

Apparently turnout is going to be higher precisely because of Trump's victory in the USA. It has scared some people. Though I'm not even registered myself because fuck elections

By that standard of "if it's unlikely it'll happen" then we'd be getting Hollande again

Hollande is not a candidate to presidency.

by that standard it means he's certain to win

kek

presidential (april/may)l: Macron will win

legislative (june): FN will win the most seats since 1986

long term: marine will remain leader of the party for at least another two election cycles and will continue to rehabilitate the party's image as well as her own

meanwhile, marion's faction within the party will continue to grow. she will go full identitard in the next two years.

Macron will beat Le Pen in the second round, by less than the polls predict but still by a comfortable margin.

Bravo to the French for coming up with a system even worse than FPTP.

No they didn't.

The flood cometh.

the FN is a weak party, even if they manage to have most seats, they don't have enough people to fill them with.

its a chronic problem in the FN, they end up punting the average party member with no political, economic or social skills in high places.
the vast majority of them end up doing stupid shit and get sued or thrown in jail.

This is a true leftist.

All these "leftist" who are more buttmad about liberals to the point of allying with Holla Forums arent real leftists

Liberalism is fascism with the face of false equality where white man is a jew.

It doesn't, read a book and stop being such a shit-tier shill.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Class_collaboration

>>>Holla Forums

She will lose, she is made to look big and scary to get people to vote against her, unlike Trump she looks dangerous thanks to TV and people will mobilize against the populists.

Especially after seeing the disaster that is Trump and Brexit

wouldn't bet on that.
you wouldn't believe how many people are desperate for a change, even if that change is for the worst

She will win.

The French establishment's reaction to her borders on repression. Her supporters will be even more aggrieved and angry.

...

wowwwwwwww. so much for the tolerant left

What law, ISIS beheading are shown everywhere in France.

Nah brah, they did.

They should do away with trials then, since we know everyone who gets to that stage is guilty.

Dude, Hamon is bernie-like. Melenchon is full on pure Corbynismo.

Also reminder that all polls are wrong and thus le pen will not win the first round because all polls are wrong 100% of the time.
t. Trumpets
:^)

so you think she's charge because the cops just don't like her?.
its a fucking plot by the jews and alien people !.

okay

Ok

You don't seem to understand how this works. It's only a crime when the media fixate on it. And the media take their lead from the neo-liberal, GLOBALIST cabal. You know its true.

Trump and Brexit were pretty spectacular in the inaccuracies of their projections.

they weren't, actually.
brexit was a close tie.
as for the US Hillary did get the majority.
the polls were within the margin of error in both cases.

yes, lets just all ignore the fact that she's been charged and act like nothing happen.

ITS A FUCKING PLOT !
she's a gud gurl!

Are you retarded, the REMOVED her muh privilege to try and retroactively find her guilty, the conspiracy is there, it's not hidden.

If someone does something with immunity they can not be doing something illegal, you don't get to take away immunity retroactively lol, that is the definition of a plot.

Again, the brexit meme is incorrect, and polling for Trump was 2%.

Regardless, the poll showing Le Pen winning the first round so the entire "polls are awful" logic should be in reverse here, or are they only incorrect when the aut-right wants them to be?

Is the sampling as retarded as the American polls?

Maybe if you believe huffpo. In the real world he was projected at ~30% which is unlikely like getting two heads in a row is unlikely. Excuse me if that doesn't exactly turn my world upside down

I honestly don't know, what I do know however is that reports of automatic Le Pen victory are grossly over exaggerated

No-one ever predicted Trump to get 30% of the popular vote from my recollection.
.

ok :

Are you ready to a c c e le r a t e ?

Oh I thought you meant 2% chance to win. In that case we agree

Why does you prediction not address Macron? Do you really think he's insignificant?

le pen isn't the first politician to get her parliamentary immunity lifted.
the french government made its case to the EU, the EU decided to lift it.

the imunity is only to protect politicians against persecution from the opposition NOT WHEN THEY BLUNTLY BREAK THE LAW.

this case is old, the justice system has been after her for some time, the EU just recently agreed to lift LePen's immunity.

He turned Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, that was earth shattering ffs. He had no chance because doing that was not even remotely predicted, considering Colorada, New Mexico are demographic Blue states now.

He didn't "turn" Florida or Ohio those were projected to go for him the day before and were practically 50/50

The other three were the "earth-shattering" ones at somewhere between 20-30%

Of course I'm taking all this from 538 the day before but if you're taking the huffpo predictions at face value I guess that would explain it

Honestly why even bother with these poltards they literally leave on another dimension lul

It is like they don't even understand basic law that my six year old brother does

You mean the woman who will end the EU if elected, got her privilige revoked because France (the EU) asked the EU (France) to do so, and it's not political.

Kill yourself you little eu loving faggot.

They were double Obama states, so yes he did. One Swing state would have been ok fine, TWO, and the whole Mid- east/East coast bar Virginia which he did way better than expected?

That was a complete and utter shock.

I don't think a lot of people are going to vote for him, he doesn't seem to know what he's doing. I may be wrong tho, seeing how Trump surpised everyone.

they do, they're just bluntly dishonest and biased.

France isn't the EU, just like California isn't the US, faggot.

you can bitch and wine all you want about your imaginary plot, in the end she did break the law and is rightfully charged for it.
you can't argue with that.

The EU is France and Germany.

he's polling surprisingly good despite not having a program.
he got lucky to be running against the worst possible candidate in France history.

the two favorites are having judiciary problems and everyone else is below 10%

She's a standard conservative, not extreme at all. You're so deluded by liberalism that you think she's extreme. In fact, being anti-EU would make her more in touch with the working people than the politicians she's running against.

All in, a large majority of polls predicted Remain, something like 2/3 of them.

The polls for the US president overwhelmingly favoured Clinton (looks around 90% predicting a Clinton win)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Since_convention_nominations

Though sure Le Pen has more ground to make up.

The charge is posting images on Twitter. What's the precedent for this in France? I've read somewhere between a fine and 3 years in prison. I doubt the French establishment will risk making her a martyr with the EU project so precariously balanced irrespective of the outcome of this election.

you do realize that you lost, right?.
no ammount of trolling could make up for your failure.

i know that in Holla Forumstard logic, being a retard till your opponent leave means you won the debate but it really isn't the case in reality.

she broke the law, got charged.
you miserably failed to defend your point.

IMO Brexit and Trump have shown polls tend to under-represent the 'right'. If this is true of France too then Le Pen may be polling even higher.

Is shy Tory factor a thing in France?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

No one was judging based on what Obama did, the polls put Hillary at roughly 47% in Ohio and 52% in Florida the day before.

well in the first week of your 'two weeks' they were in exits favor, in the last week they were in remains. Still 9% undecided on the eve of vote, in a vote that a majority is needed probably suggests that the result was going to be exceptionally close which it was.

So her posting ISIS footage really is the official reason? God damn, that's some weak excuse. I wouldn't be surprised if this increases her popularity.

Having a quick look around google from 2015 to Jan 2017 I see nothing of anyone being jailed for viewing or posting ISIS shit unless from a pro-ISIS perspective. Would being charged or prosecuted automatically exclude her from the election? Cause certainly among her supporters, this will not have hurt her cause.

by how much?
see above.

not sure if you lack reading comrehention or if you're just being dishonest.
none would surprise me.

the link you posted says exactly what i'v been saying.
most poll were in close tie and the result ended up being within the margin of error and correctly forecasting Hillary's popular victory.

you answered your own question, the law exist and as a lawyer herself she should know better.
wether or not she goes to jail is another story.

she did break the law.

So you saying Les Republicain voters are shy conservative voters. So Fillon should win it easily then…in both rounds…if he manages to get to the first round.

She's going to win of course

You are an emotional child, do you think anyone cares about an ISIS video, or that this is anything but a misguided attempt to stop Le Pen, even though it will backfire.

the average French isn't as stupid as the Avrage redneck.
she will keep what she already has, but the "undecided" will definitely not go for her.

Why would this effect not translate to any other unpopular ideologies? Is there gonna be a "shy commie" effect in the U.K.?

she still broke the law and you're still failing.

And theirs fact that she might end up running against a conservative anyway. The important factor would probably be a sort of 'shy commie' one in the second round, as in people not admitting to voting for a conservative to keep the fash out.

Maybe if they keep this up she can serve her term in the Elysee Palace, fucking idiots.

So are you a conservatard actually assmad because of this development or are you taking a moral stance against your ideological opponents being taken down with mudlinging? I can't see either stance as not being pure faggotry

You can't see the public seeing the State and the EU trying to jail someone for an ISIS video, backfiring in a heated election year? They aren't even trying to hide it.

I revel in the chaos of it all. If she loses as a result then good riddance. If she wins as a backlash to it then the show has just begun

It looks like that graph is smoothed, which obscures the swing to Remain in the last week. Of the 13 polls conducted after the assassination of Jo Cox, only 3 showed Leave winning, all by small margins, and they were all online polls, which have historically not been as good as phone polls. The polling average in this final period was Remain +2.8.

sure.

and the week before the murder

I think it's more because the medias support him. They're litteral shill.
Really sometimes I wonder why most people can't see Macron is nothing more than the continution of Hollande.

Macron is Trump without the rightwing part.
he's an ultra liberal, he can't really be compared to Holland who's a socialist.

Macron is a center right. a softer version of Fillon

...

dude, he literally used to be the leader of the socialist party for years !

Oh so he was a socialist, like Tony Blair. He was a leader of a socialist party for a while too.

...

What I meant is that a lot of people are going to vote Macron because he's going to ""change"" things, even though he was minister of economy under Holland. If he's elected, he's going to continue the liberal reforms.
And Holland is not a socialist. The Parti Socialiste is not socialist.

could you clear that up?

Nothing much to clear up. Maybe at some point they pushed some socialist ideas but it's pretty well known and accepted that they're socialist in name only and have been for some time.

I assumed Le Pen was the 'change' candidate.

everyone pretend to be the "change" candidate.
ironically i think she's the least likely to change anything, if she's elected the French parliament will for a block against her and she won't be able to do anything for 5 years

Every french candidate wants to look like they're going to change things. Even Nicolas Sarkozy tried this during the right primary.

Macron pretends to be free from right and left struggle. He wants to be a manager, not a politician.

Would she have the power to unilaterally take France out of the EU? Or at least call a referendum?

If she wins i'll facefuck a Leftcom

If she loses i'll hatefuck a Ancom

That's the Obama role, act as if the wars, the laws have no personal link to him, your just overseeing it all. It's why Hilary is hated and Obama polls well, she took all his shit for him and is the embodiment of that type of politics, he tries to be aloof from it all, the perfect neo-liberal piece of shit.

fuck off nihilist

Being an acceleration isn't is not the same as being a nihilist my angry friend

Agree completely. Liberal capitalism is really really terrible but fascism is still worse.

my sides have been liberated from my body

No it's worse.

I don't think so, unless her party wins big in the French Legislative Party that is happening this year as well.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017

though I've read articles that suggest that even just Le Pen winning would be enough to trigger a currency crisis in the Euro.

And again the electoral system is kinda against a party like the FN doing well in that too.

Its actually kinda ironic that a system designed to keep the commies at bay is now fucking up the fash. Oh the irony.

Of course she isn't. She has been endlessly touring the mainstream media, which fell for her de-demonization meme hook, line and sinker.

The Parti Socialiste is pretty much France's equivalent of UK's Labourites or USA's Dems. Meek SocDems at their very best.

possibly, but i can't even imagine the shitshow it would be. basically bypassing the parliament or anyone with a clue of what their doing.

i think France would be in civil unrest long before she even come to that.

he election alone will be enough to trigger civil unrest imo.

Unlikely that the National Assembly will allow her the luxury to call such a referendum.

And its a possibilty even in the likelihood of a Le Pen win that the FN could still probably not get any representation in the National Assembly in the legislative elections this year,

So you could have a French PM and Cabinet that isn't FN.

agreed, but keep in mind that being in charge of a country is a very complicated task and there is very little margin of maneuver, ultimately, they both end up doing what the other would do (if they're competent enough).

either way, she'll alienate people, and it'll be a shit show.

Macron will easily win, sadly

The FN won the third biggest share of the vote in the first round of the last legislative election (2012) and all they got in the end was 2 measly seats.

Democracy was a mistake

i want to fug simba

how the hell is that democratic

I dunno, I kinda lol when ukip got 13% of the vote yet so their representation in the uk parliament slashed by a half during the 2015 uk election. Democracy can be pretty stupid, but in its stupidity there is much to laugh at.

they just don't have enough people to fill the seats with, i wish i was joking.

And I thought Americlap third parties were retarded

I blame De Gaulle and his stupid Fifth Republic.

Macron is the "drain the swamp" part of Trump's rhetoric while Le Pen is the "worker's party, build the wall" part.

That is due to the fact that France is already pretty familiar with austerity and has a functional multi-party system so that the big guv/small guv dichotomy is overcome, which makes Le Pen even closer to fascism

That's a bretty good way of putting it.

bretty good indeed

I wish I live to see the day it'll be used against liberals.

oh hey, perfect opportunity to shill my OC

I'm not even that spooked by Macron. For the EU he might be good. My old liberalism in my core tells me that the EU is a good thing for the economies of Europe and for avoiding neo-westphalianism.

The EU as a power is important

Required reading marxist.com/reading-guide-marxism-and-the-european-union.htm

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HAHAHAHAHAHAHA do you not read the news ?

second turn is going to be either macron/marine or melenchon/marine, and she will loose, because too much people will vote for whoever is the other

I have big hope for melenchon, the medias, traditional right, and polls are screwing up so badly I believe anything is possible

She's pro-Russian so I hope she wins

most of the ps will go for macron, the left wing will go to melenchon, which should be above 15%
you're full of shit if you think hammon has any chance at all.

this.
Holland killed the socialists, they won't be in charge for at least a decade

she gets cucked

...

the EU will be communist, its inevitable

you won't get communism throught bourgeois democracy, especially not hyper bourgeois neoliberal shit like the EU

I never understood two-term systems. Why should people vote twice?

This already happened in 2002, everybody and their mother voted against the FN.
If she wins ill eat my hat, screenshot this post.

Well, I suppose I better bet against you just on principle.

Because it allows third parties to exist. It's not perfect but it's much better than a simple plurality.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1824
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1836
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1860
Which is why pretty much all presidential system countries use it.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo

Le Pen for La Prison!

To pick the least bad option and avoid having a 30% fringe minority win against the other 70% sane-but-fragmented majority just because they stood united.

It all depends on whether they make the call…

It's representative, pic related. There are 8 red party voters and 13 blue party voters. Depending on how you arrange them, you can make one or the other win, or even make the minoritary one completely disappear.

forgot the pic

hey Holla Forumstard ;^)

not since FN went to second turn, where they got crushed, but now they have kinda accurate polls

10/10 bom putedo

I just wikied the last French election and FN won 13% of the votes in the first round and ended up with 2/577 seats after winning like 4% in the second. Now I don't like FN but that's completely fucked up.

It also has to do that, when the FN reaches the second turn in a particular area, the succdems and the conservatives make a pact and do a call to vote for whomever isn't the FN. Sometimes the FN has over 40% of the votes and gets the 10% they need anyway, sometimes they were at above 50% right from the beginning, sometimes the local right wing party calls to vote for the FN and other times they're against the far left. That's how they got so many cantons in the regional elections. Now, the regions have next to no power in France, as it is a heavily centralised country, so it's not that important if the FN wins their, because these elections are basically glorified polls.

Now, when it's the legislatives, the circonscriptions are well-thought so that it will be always a majority of mainstream right and left in the National Assembly. They have been cut over the years, dismembering the ones that had a Communist majority (which are, in a few cases, the ones shifting to a FN majority).
Oddly enough, the green party benefitted from the system and got way much more seats than they should have, but it doesn't make a big difference since they're just Succdem enablers.

Brexit and Trump won, so Le Pen will win as well
It's just their plan to get the "far righters" into power, then execute the long planned economic crash and blame it on them and Putin.

In democracies without a two term system there already is a one
It's called opinion polling
It goes like this, opinion polling highlights the two main contenders - people vote even more for those two because other votes are irrelevant since all the other people think the same way. Nobody really cares if the polls are legit or not. If the polls show that it's candidate A vs. B while C polls at 1% while in reality the C is at 50% C would afterwards still not recieve major support at the real election since the C voter base would be concerned about B/A being better than A/B
But however the polling still exists in the two term system, so…
The best democracy would be a two term system with opinion polling ILLEGAL AND PUNISHABLE WITH A LIFETIME SENTENCE

For a short and different answer: so that people who didn't vote for the two main parties still being able to vote against the bigger evil later on