/mid-term/ general - comfy doggo edition

Blue Wave BTFO

Even the lugenpresse is admitting that the blue wave(tm) is a forced meme.
A Democratic wave from younger voters and Puerto Ricans? Don’t bank on it
With such close elections in Florida, pundits, political scientists and campaign operatives are taking notice, but here's why it may not add up to much.
Republican malaise and anti-Trump sentiment, especially among women, bode well for Democrats this cycle. But for all the talk about a blue wave in Florida due to Puerto Ricans and young voters, there is little concrete evidence to support it.
Both groups turn out at far lower rates than most other voters. They do it in election after election despite predictions, especially with young people, that this will be the one when they turn out in droves.
Consider the case for both voter groups.
Puerto Ricans
The influx of Puerto Ricans moving from the island and from the northeast over the past 15 years has helped transform once Republican Orange and Osceola counties in the greater Orlando area into Democratic strongholds. Puerto Ricans are widely viewed as swing voters, but decidedly Democratic-leaning.
When Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico six months ago and refugees started arriving in Florida, both parties understood the implications.
In January, Gov. Scott estimated that nearly 300,000 Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida since Maria hit, and some experts predicted as many as 500,000 could wind up moving here.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Florida by fewer than 113,000 votes in 2016, so hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans could be a political game-changer.
Except that the governor's estimate of 300,000 new Puerto Ricans appears to be wildly inflated.
"We estimate it's just over 50,000," said Stefan Rayer, director of the Population Program in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. – That estimate is based on requests for state aid at Florida's Multi-Agency Resource Centers and school enrollment data.
The governor based his estimate of roughly 300,000 on the number of passengers on flights from Puerto Rico to Orlando, Tampa and Miami. Many of those passengers, however, could have been aid workers returning to the mainland, contractors, government employees, journalists or assorted other travelers.
University of Florida political scientist Daniel Smith examined 2016 election results in Florida voting precincts with the highest number of voters who reported being born in Puerto Rico. Trump won only 30 percent of the vote in those precincts, where the Clinton campaign and assorted Democratic political groups poured resources into winning those voters.
Of the more than 180,000 Puerto Rico-born voters in his database, about 112,000 voted. That 62 percent turnout rate is far less than the 75 percent turnout among all voters. In a non-presidential election year with presumably considerably less money targeting Puerto Rican voters, turnout could well be lower in 2018.
But assume, very generously, that 40,000 Puerto Rican new Florida residents register to vote this year, 62 percent vote, and Democratic statewide candidates win 70 percent of those votes. That comes to about 17,000 additional Democratic votes.
Helpful, yes, but no game-changer.
Young voters
Ever since Congress lowered the voting age to 18 in 1971, Democrats have talked of a flood of progressive young voters.
Rolling Stone writer Hunter S. Thompson gushed about draft-vulnerable Baby Boomers saving America and electing George McGovern over Richard Nixon.
"In a close election, even 10 percent of that bloc would mean 2.5 million votes — a very serious figure when you stack it up against Nixon's thin margin over (Hubert) Humphrey in 1968," he wrote in Rolling Stone. "Think of it: Only 10 percent! Enough, even according to Nixon's own wizards — to swing almost any election."
Nixon won 49 states in 1972.
Turnout drops for most parts of the electorate in midterm elections, but that's especially so with voters ages 18 to 29. In 2016, people under 26 made up the second-largest age group of voters in Hillsborough County but had the lowest turnout of any age group. "It is really hard to convince a large number of young people to come out and vote in midterms. The last time we measured, in 2014, it was one in five. That's outrageously low," said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, director of Tisch College's Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.
The only argument the MSM has is that everyone hates drumpf now, which they've declared based on their own polling which has been proven false for years now. Imagine what their salt is going to be on November 6th, when Trump's base makes gains in both houses. It's inevitable, considering the dems are only running on an anti-trump agenda instead of a pro-America one.

Hotpocket Edit: Fixed earlobe spacing

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Other urls found in this thread:

archive.is/RF3Xb
archive.is/JYGy9
270towin.com/2018-house-election/
hooktube.com/watch?v=Hid1H2gkVfI
redstorm2018.wordpress.com/

Sorry for shit formatting I never make threads, but I thought it was important for Holla Forums to talk about the mid-terms. It looks more like earlobe spacing than paragraphs.

sage for double-post

Here's the source btw: archive.is/RF3Xb

Shills have been spamming nonstop because of the upcoming midterms, unironically saying "DON'T VOTE." Trying to fragment Trump's base etc. After the two special election losses, I am a bit concerned. Lamb won by what, a few hundred votes? How many voter or election "irregularities" are we going to see? Can anything be done about the rigging and corruption?

Here's the votes for the omnibus spending bill: archive.is/JYGy9

It would be nice to cross reference this with a list of people who are up for re-election so we can prepare to do something about it now.

After today it's incredibly likely and either way what does it matter theres one globalist party.

PA and MI should also be gray. Stabenow was only ahead by 2 points in the Axios poll. Casey will probably win but it's not 100% sure either.

If the election happened today, the map would look something like this

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Donnelly and McCaskill are probably done. Heitkamp will most likely go down too: voting against the tax cuts will damage all 3 pretty heavily.
For some reason, I believe that Manchin will actually survive: he's not that unpopular in the State and he showed to be willing to work with Trump (smoke and mirrors of course, but it will, imho, be enough to win by a few points)
Montana and Michigan are slightly leaning towards the Democrat, but for different reasons (I have to go to work, so I'll be fast: Tester's popularity is fine in MT and they are somehow more D-leaning than the other flyover States - they even have a popular D governor). Not impossible to flip them though.
McSally will probably win in Arizona, the State does not have the required amount of spics to flip it just yet, on top of that she used to be a popular Rep in a district that leans Democratic: bonus points for her)
I'd like to see Barletta oust Casey but I don't think it will happen.
FL, WI, OH, NV toss-ups imho. If I had to pick right now, I think Reps will pick up OH and WI and Dems get NV. FL stays D.
Also TX and TN: Tennessee could be closer than usual because the Dems are running a former Governor who is actually quite popular. Cruz will steamroll Beto, despite what the (((media))) has been saying for the past few months: at SXSW Beto acted like a complete autist and said that "no civilian needs an AR-15". His campaign probably didn't tell him he's not running in El Paso anymore, but statewide.

Checked, can we rig them ourselves? I'll do what I can locally if that's possible. I just wouldn't know where to start.

Lamb won because they had just redrawn the district lines to give democrats the edge, also because he ran a moderate race and didn't sperg out with the "WE MUST RESIST" shit.

Exactly how I feel. Unfortunately people are still stuck in this bullshit left/right paradigm. Voting R is more about the lulz than anything meaningful at this point.

Redistricting won't take place until November.

Didn't quote

He's also running against Marsha Blackburn which boosts his chances. My mom was talking about the senate race and is planning on voting Bredesen, I asked her why and she said that Blackburn reminds her of Pelosi.

Lamb was basically a republican. There's no way a guy like him could win a primary; he had to be selected by committee. The election was done under the old-districts btw, not the kike-courts new map. Also Moore probably would have won if the media wasn't calling him a pedophile 24/7.


I'm an FL user. Scott has way more name value, which I think can help him. He's actually been beating Nelson in recent polls too. I'm still mad at the fucker for signing that gun control bill, and I think Nelson will probably retain, but he's got a really good shot. Also I've heard OH is the type of state where the person with the most recognized name wins, and the republicans don't have anyone to run against the democrat incumbent.

I'm very confident about AZ, MO, ND, and IN though. I don't think Trump is going to get his super majority, but republicans would have to work over-time shooting themselves in the foot in order to not gain seats in 2018.

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I love how my almost entirely red state is always portrayed as blue, despite only a tiny southernmost portion of it being full of faggots and kikes.

It didn't help that Rick Saccone was a horrible candidate who fucked a gook and created mutant looking hapa children

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I keep hearing people say Saccone was a horrible candidate. All I really heard about him was that he had a long career in the Pennsylvania state legislature, and that he was very pro-Trump. What exactly makes him a bad candidate? I think he's much better than a lot of the RINO filth that are lauded as "strong moderate candidates."

What a fucking mess.

A fellow Jew Yorker by any chance?
Reminder that there would've been more red states if it wasn't for the cities and "urban zones."

There is a strong possibility that Republicans will lose the House, but it's next to impossible for them to lose the Senate from a statistical standpoint. Dems will draw voters out on a platform of "Impeach Drumpf" and unless conservatives can can mobilize their voters, they will lose the House, a few Senate seats, and the races will be much closer than comfortable in Red States. Republicans seem to be going out of their way to demoralize their constituents by cucking on every issue from gun control to immigration. Muh tax cuts and muh wars for Israel get average joe cuckservative all tingly inside, but it does not get them off the couch to vote. Trump proved that the GOP can win big by running unapologetic campaigns on immigration and jobs, but apparently even Trump has forgot this now.

I also fully expect Dems to unleash mass protests and coordinate media campaigns over the summer, and they'll probably plan a Charlottesville 2.0 in October. This could easily backfire on them since the Ferguson and other BLM riots in 2014 were one of the reasons why Republicans reaped massive gains.

Orange County user here, can confirm that there is a shit ton more Puerto Ricans here than there were before. Osceola is ten times worse. Wish there was a way to turn the tide back against them.

I think you're being overly pessimistic. The house is definitely the weak point, but there's nothing really saying that the democrats are going to take it. A lot of it is just the media shilling that everyone hates drumpf and republicans. 270towin lists all of the house seats and the (((polling))) for them. 270towin.com/2018-house-election/ You can see that in order to take the house, dems will have to not lose a single seat, and win 90% of battlegrounds. Republicans might not get the god-tier turnout they got under Obama's mid-terms, but they still usually get a 1% or 2% lead under their party's mid-terms. Republicans do have more vulnerable seats, however, that means they get the incumbent's advantage in every single one. The important thing to do is spread awareness of the good aspects of candidates, instead of banking on the fact that they're an (R) or that they support Trump. Most of Trump's base is still there, so it's possible that we can use that momentum to help win.


Maybe we can get the Boers to clean up Hialeah?

Dems need to win by about 9 points to get back the House.
Ive checked out the (((polls))) and their sample sizes, and, surprise surprise, if the turnout was equal on both sides Dems would win by roughly half a point. All the (((pollsters))) are assuming that the Dem turnout will be monstruously high, that's how they're getting the blue wave narrative rolling. Independens are split equally between both parties for now, compared to 2006 when there was a huge backlash against kike wars and Dubya.

He wasn't energetic or enthusiastic in either campaigning or fundraising, which is what made him a poor candidate. Otherwise, he was in pretty good shape politically and was running for a Fed district that included people he currently represented at the State level.

Really no need to be enthusiastic about it, as the position ran for will have a newly reshaped district and will be up for grabs again just 8 months from now.

Yesterdays bill (including mental health restrictions), bump stock ban, and constant muh daca tweets is more than enough to demoralize the base.

Republicans have been losing tons of elections though. Scott Walker is trying to prevent an election from even taking place so the seat doesn't get lost to a Democrat.

Muh constitutionalists would have looked past the hapa part but he was a horrible candidate. Exactly what the GOP wants: a huge loss in 2018. So they can go back to the same old muh deficits & "this isn't what the founders had in mind!" bs.

Of course it's always them that run blue.

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Source?

Drumpf has been doing way better in special elections than Obama did. The problem is that the jewish media only reports it when democrats win.

>(((Trump))) in same post
I have never seen a candidate so AIPAC friendly as Trump.

Anyway you're deliberately hiding from reality at this point. Republicans are picking up seats here and there but they're losing a lot more. Trump is helping to turn off voters by being tied to these candidates too. I think the Roy Moore fiasco was the real turning point. If an abortionist gun grabbing Democrat can grab Alabama you should be worried.

Nate Dirt said that their 'breakthrough point' is 9 points. Another analyst (don't remember the name) ran a simulation in which Dems get to +9 nationally (he assumed that they'll get exactly 10 points more compared to 2 years ago in each district since Republicans won the congressional ballot in 2016 by 1 point) and the result was 221-214 R. In case of a D+10 win Repubs were winning 218-217.

Also from (((Daily Kos))), Nate Copper had a better analysis though, maybe I'll dig later

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Trump surrendering on the omnibus spending bill will probably depress Republican turnout. Only the most deluded took a positive view from that.

...

I had to find a larger image for a closer look.
Kind of reminiscent of a burka or something if you squint your eyes
sage for massively off-topic

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We are making great lengths kicking your ass. Just look at KYM or any mainstream website and you will see that you have LOST the infowar. HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

California will have a race between the incumbent gun-grabbing turbokike (Feinstein) and a guy who publicly stated that half of his family is in the US illegally (also famous for "30 rounds per second"), Kevin De Leon

Has me pretty optimistic. The mid-term salt will be glorious.


Moore only lost because the entire media was calling him a pedophile. Even then, he would have won if the election weren't a special election. The ruling party usually has low turnout during special elections, and Trump is doing better in regards to special elections than most others do. Don't be so black-pilled. The democrats would need a virtual land-slide in order to win. If anything, republicans are likely to gain seats.

Friendly reminder his name's not fucking Beto, it's Robert. That Mister Potato Head Mick piece of shit is trying to sound like a beaner to get the bean vote. The queer's literally running on a platform of "We're going to become a santuary state and stop ICE raids and just become California" despite being a goddamn potatonigger named O'Rourke.

HOLD MY BEER
t. The entire goddamn GOP as of late

Not if they keep governing left instead of right. Trump's rhetoric drove people to the polls, the party isn't going to gain anything by playing it soft and safe.

To the faggot shilling about Alabama: Democrats are 2-5 in federal special elections since Trump got elected. One of them they barely won after the entire GOP disavowed Moore, after he ran a terrible campaign, was called a pedo on national TV, got (((sued))) for sexual assault, got outspent 4:1, niggers got bussed in from MS and even after all that he lost by 1 fucking point. The other one they won by 600 votes after Saccone refused to appear in public and fundraise, and Lamb ran as a pro-gun, pro-life Democrat, while also being 20x more charismatic and a vet. Demokikes lost a congressional election on which they spent 55 FUCKING MILLION DOLLARS by 4 points (and Trump won the district by just 1). Most of the 38 State seats were gained in Virginia (after Ds promised to legalize muh weed lolbergs came out in droves to vote for them) and New Jersey (Christie was a good Governor but the State is too fucking kiked, he had a 15% approval rating at the end of his second term).
Obama instead lost over 140 seats in State legislatures by the end of his first year and ALL of the federal special elections including a Senate seat in the third most pozzed State in the US after Cali and Jew York, Massachusetts, held by JFK and after his death by Ted Kennedy, until he died too. By 5 points, fair and square.

One more thing, 56% of the people who voted for Trump voted for Moore. Do you know how many of those who voted for Shillary came out for Jones? 96 fucking percent. Nobody even knew who the fuck that guy was. He had the same black turnout in a special election as Kang Nigger in a presidential. That is absolutely fucking impossible to achieve without cheating. A federal judge ordered that the paper ballots be destroyed the day after the election. And of course, after Moore lost, all of the sexual assault and rape charges were dropped. What a fucking coincidence.

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hooktube.com/watch?v=Hid1H2gkVfI

Isn't this liable for election fraud investigations?
Archive it.
handle

Voters have the memory span of a goldfish. Dems won't campaign on it since some of them ( (((Feinstein))), Harris, (((Bernie))), Warren ) voted against the bill.


Too late. They arrested a few people and the case was closed by the Alabama AG

Come November nobody will remember the Omni-bus. It gets me excited and nervous to think there are still 6 more months of Happenings before mid-terms, and each party has yet to unleash the power of their fully functional campaign propaganda machines.

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Just do what Democrats did in Alabama and accuse every Democrat candidate of rape in October. Apparently that's all it takes

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I read that Daily Kos article. I'm starting to laugh at how delusional the commies are getting at this point. Couldn't find that Nate Copper analysis you were talking about though.

Full house confirms massive Happenings from now until midterms.

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MAKE SURE YOU GET OUT THERE AND VOTE
DO NOT GET TIRED OF WINNING
DO NOT GET LULLED INTO PACIFISM
the fight is just beginning
Be ready for the next push by the jewsm to fuck us over whether it be on privacy/gun rights or on rigging another fucking election
Also, we need more anons to get into lawyering and defend whites against diversity enforcing judges that continue letting off nonwhites for serious crimes and maxing sentences for whites for lesser crimes.

==============================
BTFO Anti NeoCon trump kike shills
==============================

You leftists, muslims and antisemites are all so salty still that our NeoCon Republican agenda has won.

Ha Ha Ha I personally don't see what you're all complaining about you fashy based jewoCon voting patriots, if you didn't want our total jew control then why did you fashy based NeoCon supporting goys vote total NeoCon jewish control for?
Talk about dumb cattle marching themselves into the abattoir!

Get with the program goy, for future reference:
If you don't want a jew world order to enslave your children's children, then may I suggest you don't vote for the jew world order's puppets next time.

We win, and the dumb goy lose, and the best ever mods since Judas Iscariot can't help Rubbing your noses in it daily and making you beg for even more

Every day on Holla Forums we have been reminding you dumbfuck republicuck goy that you don't own nothing.

Least of all Holla Forums which has been under our control since way before Trump decided to stand as President to accelerate the jew world order.

Now remember while you goys are guests on Holla Forums please observe our rules:

1, Do not dare criticise our choice of Trump, you're just dumb cattle who we tell you who to vote for and then you can die in the wars we create for you with honour, serving your jewish masters and making you cheer your own demise on, got that?
2, This is our board naow, how you like that bitches?

Don't believe us jews own everything here?

Just try and post criticism of Trump, Bannon or Kushner

Try and dare make genuinely antisemitic content here

Try and promote a genuine white organisation here

Try to dare expose the oldest known frauds like Le Pen, Gert Wilders or any of the NeoCon zionist jews Trump appointed to the cabinet.

Go on goy, test us, you know we own Holla Forums and all you can do is praise ZOG or get banned.

Now if you have any further queries about what else you can do to serve the jew world order, just browse through the based sticky threads here and follow Imkampfy's hotpocktX directions,cheer every bill that hands over America to ZOG, and thank the mods every time we ban any legit user.


All your boards are belong to us!

Le LoL xD xD xD

Not wasting my time voting again. I'm glad we've all finally proven what everyone has already known for decades. Voting is pointless.

Seeing how Trump's tweets got half the favs they normally get after the omnibus bullshit its probable not many others are voting either.

Not checking because I live in AZ and not voting gets us more fucking illegals. Fuck you Jew. I guess everyone should stay home in 2020 and let queen sheboon nigger win? Die you fucking Jew. DIE.

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A lot of the base got fed up with the Omnibus Bill. This does not mean they will all stay home in 2020 when, not if, queen sheboon nigger oprah runs.

I honestly don't see any way the Rs lose their majority in either the House or Senate. They'll lose seats in the house, but it would be a stretch to carve out enough seats to take the majority.

no way she's running. she's got way too much to lose thanks to being a part of the hollyjew inner circle for decades. those pics people were posting of her with wienstein were probably enough to get her to say she wasn't running, unless she's recently stated she was now

She has billions, will galvanize women where Killary failed, has the nigger vote where Killary did not. She is a threat, and the Jews are starting to realize she's their sheboon in 2020. We need to attack her immediately after November.

get on the ballot Holla Forums, wherever you can.

also, the dem party is bankrupt.

Rothschilds will create money from thin air and donate to them.

They have their soyboys but it's the illegal votes that are the real problem.

Are you talking about that Kamala Harris negress? No wait she wins the rust-belt tbh. Florida and North Carolina might be under threat though.

I understand completely why a lot of people aren't interested in participating in jewish "democracy", but saying "Don't vote" is a universal sign of shills. Why did you come into this thread at all if you aren't interested anyways? Come on (((friend))), you need to earn that promotion.

He was talking about Oprah. The Dems have only 3 candidates they can potentially run, Biden, Sanders or Harris.

Biden:

Sanders:
>pros: millenial turnout, dude free college lmao, 'looks' honest, (((their guy)))

>pros: pajeet = minority points, a wammen, young, (((media))) would shill for her as Obama 2.0

Booker, Pocahontas, Gillibrand have no chance

It's hilarious how fucked the democrats are on a national level. They can pick either blacks or workers, but not both. Their best bet is to run a good speaker as President, and then fill whatever niche he's lacking with a VP choice. But they don't really have any good speakers. Sanders got rekt in that one debate with Cruz over health-care. Biden is old and has no filter anymore. Non-whites all chimp out. Maybe they could run John Kerry again or some shit.

How do you manage to go from certain victory to impossible to take a single branch of government in the span of about a year?

You idiot, niggers will vote D no matter what the candidate does or says. That's how niggers have always operated.

Booker won't get far in the primary but the entertainment media keeps floating him, they already made a TV show glorifying him right after the election. I think the DNC is in the spot the RNC was in 16 before Trump rolled onto the scene, a lot of people who look 'good' or possible from a strictly theoretical standpoint but nobody with actual force of personality. Hell, we might even see Hillary again.

You're right about the fact that niggers vote for gibs, but I was never even insinuating that they would vote for someone else. I was saying that they turn out in higher numbers for someone like Obama than someone like Hillary.

God, the GOP sucks. I'm glad they'll keep a majority but still this is embarrassing, losing Minnesota, Virginia, even Pennsylvania after the presidential success there. Looking at the number of anti-gun marches vs pro-gun marches, I have to wonder what the NRA is up to. Lobby officials all you want, if Dems DO achieve a majority it won't do you much good.

You Amerifags better vote, the right all over the world relies on your shining example.

Probably the best argument for not voting anyone has put forward, though that wasn't your intent.

Well, you have Trump. For all his faults he's a shitload better than most cucked western leaders.

Indeed, so how is he in any way better?

t.zognaldspammer

The GOP (including Trump) is basically just as bad on immigration which is the only issue that matters. Not saying don't vote but don't pretend they care about you.

The t.zognald and poster I was replying to are all for the zionist jew world order
My post was patently against it

Shillary wanted to import 550 thousand rapefugees per year and grant blanket amnesty to DREAMers. Dahnald cut the refugee quotas to a minimum, told 300k spics from El Salvador to GTFO, border crossings are at an all time low, and the Wall will be built. Don't fall for Judische memes about zognald

>(((red team))) vs (((blue team)))
call me when there is a viable third option not controlled by kikes

I can't tell if this current wave of zognald shilling is the last twitch from shariablue's corpse, or if this is merely the interim as they scramble to find something else to feebly blackpill over. I am noticing that right leaning video recommendations on platforms such as jewtube are trying hard to push the forced meme of Trump's administration as a failed state, and nine times out of ten they use a boomer as their mouthpiece such as patriot nurse, so it could be the strategy is shifting from battling imageboards to blackpilling gen Z. This will fail just as hard as the hilldog pepes of election eve.

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The poll oversampled Democrats by 9 points, but still
Give me one good reason why they shouldn't be culled

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redstorm2018.wordpress.com/

Hey, I'm the guy who makes all the Red Storm General threads on halfchan's Holla Forums. Check out this wordpress - it's an all-in-one source for the midterms. Encyclopedic info on each race, and posts about action plans / data / polls / analysis.

It's still mostly incomplete, but we'll have the state-by-state reference guide finished soon enough.

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democraticunderground.com

Blow you brains out, shill.

I wouldn't mind some info on how they're rigging polls this time around.