Blue Wave BTFO
Even the lugenpresse is admitting that the blue wave(tm) is a forced meme.
A Democratic wave from younger voters and Puerto Ricans? Don’t bank on it
With such close elections in Florida, pundits, political scientists and campaign operatives are taking notice, but here's why it may not add up to much.
Republican malaise and anti-Trump sentiment, especially among women, bode well for Democrats this cycle. But for all the talk about a blue wave in Florida due to Puerto Ricans and young voters, there is little concrete evidence to support it.
Both groups turn out at far lower rates than most other voters. They do it in election after election despite predictions, especially with young people, that this will be the one when they turn out in droves.
Consider the case for both voter groups.
The influx of Puerto Ricans moving from the island and from the northeast over the past 15 years has helped transform once Republican Orange and Osceola counties in the greater Orlando area into Democratic strongholds. Puerto Ricans are widely viewed as swing voters, but decidedly Democratic-leaning.
When Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico six months ago and refugees started arriving in Florida, both parties understood the implications.
In January, Gov. Scott estimated that nearly 300,000 Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida since Maria hit, and some experts predicted as many as 500,000 could wind up moving here.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Florida by fewer than 113,000 votes in 2016, so hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans could be a political game-changer.
Except that the governor's estimate of 300,000 new Puerto Ricans appears to be wildly inflated.
"We estimate it's just over 50,000," said Stefan Rayer, director of the Population Program in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. – That estimate is based on requests for state aid at Florida's Multi-Agency Resource Centers and school enrollment data.
The governor based his estimate of roughly 300,000 on the number of passengers on flights from Puerto Rico to Orlando, Tampa and Miami. Many of those passengers, however, could have been aid workers returning to the mainland, contractors, government employees, journalists or assorted other travelers.
University of Florida political scientist Daniel Smith examined 2016 election results in Florida voting precincts with the highest number of voters who reported being born in Puerto Rico. Trump won only 30 percent of the vote in those precincts, where the Clinton campaign and assorted Democratic political groups poured resources into winning those voters.
Of the more than 180,000 Puerto Rico-born voters in his database, about 112,000 voted. That 62 percent turnout rate is far less than the 75 percent turnout among all voters. In a non-presidential election year with presumably considerably less money targeting Puerto Rican voters, turnout could well be lower in 2018.
But assume, very generously, that 40,000 Puerto Rican new Florida residents register to vote this year, 62 percent vote, and Democratic statewide candidates win 70 percent of those votes. That comes to about 17,000 additional Democratic votes.
Helpful, yes, but no game-changer.
Ever since Congress lowered the voting age to 18 in 1971, Democrats have talked of a flood of progressive young voters.
Rolling Stone writer Hunter S. Thompson gushed about draft-vulnerable Baby Boomers saving America and electing George McGovern over Richard Nixon.
"In a close election, even 10 percent of that bloc would mean 2.5 million votes — a very serious figure when you stack it up against Nixon's thin margin over (Hubert) Humphrey in 1968," he wrote in Rolling Stone. "Think of it: Only 10 percent! Enough, even according to Nixon's own wizards — to swing almost any election."
Nixon won 49 states in 1972.
Turnout drops for most parts of the electorate in midterm elections, but that's especially so with voters ages 18 to 29. In 2016, people under 26 made up the second-largest age group of voters in Hillsborough County but had the lowest turnout of any age group. "It is really hard to convince a large number of young people to come out and vote in midterms. The last time we measured, in 2014, it was one in five. That's outrageously low," said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, director of Tisch College's Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.
The only argument the MSM has is that everyone hates drumpf now, which they've declared based on their own polling which has been proven false for years now. Imagine what their salt is going to be on November 6th, when Trump's base makes gains in both houses. It's inevitable, considering the dems are only running on an anti-trump agenda instead of a pro-America one.
Hotpocket Edit: Fixed earlobe spacing