This is moreso my point regarding Syria and Assad. We can sit here all day and cheer for Assad and wish him success on the battlefield against ISIS and the rebels. In a perfect world that's what would happen.
But these aren't all foreign fighters. Maybe a lot of ISIS is, but the non ISIS rebels (though they may be Islamist conservatives) are largely Syrians who decided to revolt against Assad. You can say they are wrong, you can say they were manipulated into war, whatever. The fact remains that for whatever reason they have they are willing to fight and die to get rid of Assad.
They are willing to die to get rid of Assad or even just to attempt to. That's a level of hate and disdain for a political figure I've never seen in my life. Their hate for Assad makes Antifa look like Trump fan boys.
And it's not like these individuals formed in a vaccuum. It's not just they who support their rebel cause, it is their families, their friends, neighborhoods and whole towns in some cases. My point is that simply killing the current rebel soldiers will not end the civil war. New people would pick up arms and keep fighting.
The only way Assad could win is really a complete genocide of many rebel controlled areas. Or at least forcing people to seriously prove their allegiance to Assad or be killed. He would basically have to become the murderous caricature that the international media is characterizing him as. Otherwise when does it end? How do you get Syria to return to a peaceful functioning society when this is all overwith? How would you get a rebel soldier to lay down his arms and accept rule by Assad?
You don't. Any rebel that does that would likely, and perhaps rightfully so, be thrown into a work camp or just executed for sedition against the state.
And just for hypothetical questions, let's say this actually happened. Let's say the US took a total hands off approach or they supported Assad in a war of annihilation against rebels.
So many Syrians have fled the country. If Assad did what is necessary to win you would have millions more refugees than currently exist. More people would die. Assad could win, but Syria would be extremely depopulated.
Then we could all rejoice…Assad won, the true lion of Syria won. Moderately secular peace has been restored and disparate groups are living as Syrians again. YAY! We would cheer loudly.
But what happens after that? A depopulated Syria would be much easier for Israel to take over. I guess my point is that even if Assad won on his own terms…he might still lose in the long run. Especially if after he won the global opinion was still against him.
That's why I'm not totally opposed to Trump's strike. I think the absolute best course of action (most realistic but also beneficial) would be a complete destruction of ISIS and then some type of peaceful transition. Assad leaving power, and having some kind of election or power transfer where it's not guaranteed to go to rebel forces. A deal must be made.
Perhaps Trump will tell Assad that he will use the full might of the US military to crush ISIS and the worst of the rebels, but on the condition that Assad voluntarily give up power and work out a transition process.
I know that's not ideal, but civil wars and recoveries from civil wars take lots of time. Even just thinking that, during the aftermath of the civil war Israel could launch a strike, or send a (((terrorist))) into Damascus with a "dirty bomb" or something. Syria has the card's stacked against it. There will never be peace and full reunification under Assad. If Syria wishes to remain Syria and be a counter-weight to Israel they need to establish a peace process and rebuild their nation quickly. Perhaps Trump could assist them in rebuilding structures.
