http:// www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-january-10-2017-1.3928686/engineers-warn-that-mosul-dam-at-risk-of-collapse-could-threaten-more-lives-than-isis-1.3928827
I don't care much for the situation of this, but it does pose a serious issue for Trump. If this breaks, his administration will be blamed for the disaster that follows it (think of Bush and Katrina for New Orleans, make it far far worse). Even worse, ti will destabilize the region and make it impossible to end the Syrian War with 6-7 million Iraqi refugees suddenly begging for help. The last thing we need is to have this occur some time this year, which would make any progress drowned in a single instant.
One one hand losing the region means OPEC suffers in oil output, forcing the US to create energy needs (and jobs) for ourselves. On a global scale this will be considered a win for Israel for permanently destabilizing the region and leaving the region at the control of Turks and Saudi Arabia and Iran (none are ideal, and it will only make tensions worse, dragging the US in to be peace-keepers/cleanup/another trillion for aiding).
ISIS will also take a heavy beating in this for losing Mosul (which would be gone within an hour of the event), but will use this as an excuse to continue the war, recruit, and keep fighting in Syria and other nations. At the end of the day, the fighting will drive refugees to Europe along with a total collapse of the countries handling the refugees. Basically, short-term victory to defeat ISIS in Mosul, long term Europe damage from all fleeing there and ISIS growing stronger from the event.
We cannot prevent the collapse from here, but how can we work with the information to show that the Obama administration and Bush administration caused this? Trump inherited the mess, he should not be blamed for it. If no plan is in place and he gets stuck with this blame, he WILL be a one-term president, and that is unacceptable.
For those who do not know much: Mosul Dam is built on Gypsum, requiring constant attention and repairs (Fuck Saddam for shoddy placement), and has been the equivalent of a nuclear threat in the region ever since. Isis took control in 2014 briefly and damaged a bunch of shit, Kurds took it back but have yet to fully fix shit. Constant cement is necessary. Updated information on damage amount, process of fixing, and issues below (insight only)
http:// publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC101555/lbna27923enn.pdf
http:// www. newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/02/a-bigger-problem-than-isis