Just like Brexit, you have few people with loads of money skewing the betting market, but the majority of punters are putting money on Trump.
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William Hill slashes odds on Trump victory amid betting patterns eerily reminiscent of those seen in the lead up to the EU referendum
Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump. Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican.
That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.
The bookie has cut the odds on a Trump victory from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days in response to a surge in bets for the reality TV star and businessman turned politician.
Clinton’s lead in national US polls, and in the battleground states that are the keys to victory, have firmed amid continuing revelations over Trump’s past behaviour and his increasingly erratic public statements.
However, Fortune magazine noted that the Brexit vote showed “polls aren’t as accurate as you think”, even as many US media outlets were declaring that Clinton’s lead of seven points and rising made her all but “unbeatable” with three weeks of campaigning to go.
William Hill’s odds suggest otherwise. They put Trump's chance of winning at 20 per cent and rising. One reason to take note of that: William Hill doesn’t have that many American clients. The odds therefore reflect what people without any horse in the race think will happen. Punters may have latched on to the similarity of the forces behind Brexit and the rise of Trump. They include years of flat or falling incomes, popular discontent with the establishments of both countries and a desire to make them pay.
LMAO no. Lügenpresse international is pushing Hillary harder than the US press. That's all there is to it. Trump is presented ONLY as a joke candidate outside of the US. Here in Germany if I were to trust the media I would have to assume Trump has literally 0% chance at winning. That's why non-US-citizens bet against him, not because we're somehow impartial.
Jayden Reyes
Its disgusting how bad his coverage in the US, but outside is likely worse as we only get the negatives.
Brody Johnson
Eurofag here, outside the US Trump is literally Hitler and a joke candidate, Hillary crushed all the debates and there are no such things as email leaks or election fraud videos. The propaganda is completely blatant to anyone that has a brain or that has been reading anything about US politics.
I don't get why are they ruining their credibility like this though, seeing as we don't even vote in the US election.
If I were to pick up my tinfoil hat I'd say they're training the public to accept a forceful removal of Trump if it were to happen, but I don't know.
Leo Hall
I hate myself for not betting on brexit win, even if I was sure of it, it was a 1 to 6 payout or something
But I worry about voting on the election, not because I think the majority would vote for hillary, that's impossible But because if they actually go and fraud the election, I could lose the bet
Levi Lopez
There's 4 million ex-pats who can vote. Fuck off of them will but those absentee ballots are easy as pie to corrupt.
Caleb Morgan
Has anyone brought up that PERHAPS the Hillary campaign was sending people to bet on her to improve her "winning odds"?
Considering all the recent rigging shit that's come out it wouldn't surprise me.
Aiden Edwards
The news in Australia is the same. They only play edited clips and try to make Trump seem like an unhinged lunatic while Hilary is portrayed as an angel.
Asher Cruz
(checked) That's the same suspects that paired over Brexit. The pattern of loads of small bets on one thing versus a fewer huge bets on the opposite looks like manipulation of the market. People have started to look at the betting market for accurate predictions since Punters don't care about ideology, they care about money. It wouldn't surprise me if (((someone))) was trying to manipulate it.
Camden Bailey
hang all journalists
Liam Taylor
Yeah, there hasn't been a hint of anti-Shillary coverage at all in Australia from what I've seen to date (not even devil's advocates or anything).
Ryder Taylor
here in the netherlands as well. we had the 'pussy scandal' play out time after time since the time they got it, but maybe any information about wikileaks other than assange's internet connection being severed, no. this election season has showed me that the media i personally would believe as being semi-impartial is being so disingenuous, so horribly corrupt and just plain lying sacks of shit, that they rather talk about someone talking about grabbing a pussy than the huge scandal that is rampant corruption and inevitable voter fraud. oh, obongo said trump should stop whining? of course we will talk thrice about that. what do you mean, there is damning evidence or at the very least a huge watergate-like-scandal going on, that's not news, i ain't seen nothin'.
Samuel Lee
I've got an account on an Aussie betting company and I tried finding odds on Trump winning after the 'pussybus' tape was dropped, but I couldn't find anything of the sort. I wanted to see his odds become like 15-1 then bet as much as I could afford on it.
Blake Gomez
on this topic. I hope none of you pussies forgot to place bets on trump on sports betting sites 5:1 odds against him, this is a good thing for us from a financial perspective
Sam Hyde did it
Blake Thomas
Evan McMullin has better odds of being the next president than Gary Johnson
Colton Williams
Here in France they're saying that Trump is going to have to try to catch up with Hillary in tonight's debate. Fucking lying press will have their dirty mouths shut.
Evan Walker
Pizzafag here, confirmed for pizzaland too.
Jace Myers
How? How do they do it? How do they willingly walk into their own demise after knowing the corruption? But whatever, we played a game of Risk and I fucking destroyed them. My friend then asked, "Does this mean Donald Trump will win?" I say, "Yea." Feelsgoodman
Maplefag reporting in to say that the carefully crafted narrative of a Cunton victory is very much alive in the frozen north. My own family fears Trump like some sort of monster from the depths of time. Brother talks like it's in the bag for Hillary, and I always reply "We shall see, won't we?" Never fails to drive him bananas.
James Allen
...
Brody Myers
Fear.
Fear of social pressure for going against the group.
You like the rest of us are defective. You're not as easily pushed by peer pressure and put less value in the opinions of those around you.
Matthew Edwards
Yep I've noticed that. My friends remarked that I didn't have social media therefore I didn't know about the "dark side" of Trump. They kept going on about how celebrities were all saying Trump is a monster and NBA stars were saying Trump is an asshole and all that. I didn't reply but I missed a good opportunity to say that I know about the so called dark side because it's in the media every day. I know what other people think of him but I don't care because they simply don't know what's at stake. And that they only find out their info about Trump from social media so they're bound to be blind to the good side of Trump. I regret not saying that.
Jackson Smith
Weiss is that you? Pookie here.
Gabriel Russell
Thing is. What do celebrities and basketball players know of political theory, world events and economics? I don't get that myself.
But it's not the social media on its own. They're afraid of people doing to them what they did to you.
because they have nothing to lose. Either their lies work and Hillary is elected, or else Trump is elected, and they're swinging from lamposts. At this point, refraining from persevering in their lies will be no defense in court, so they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by tripling down on the mendacity.
Owen Brown
That's what they think anyway. I honestly think that the more blatant they get the more people vote Trump.
Add the way Trump has played them and I honestly think they've helped Trump more than Shillary at this point.
Charles Kelly
Trump has been brilliant the lest week. He has framed the narrative perfectly as him vs the corruption of media-finance-politics. And the media has only fallen for his trap by pushing even more fake stories, destroying the little credibility they still had and pushing normies towards Trump. By doing this, Trump has also been vaccinated against future media attacks.
It is really huge how this campaign has already destroyed the cuckservative wing of the republican party (the mid-boss) and the media (the dragon). Now all that is left is the final boss, the Clintons and their corrupt machine.
Kayden Anderson
iktfb "b-but there will always be corruption!" "b-but Trump would still have a corrupt administration!"
Gavin Sanchez
(checked) It also helps that Clinton is a fucking lizard person with the creepiest smile you'll ever see. It also helps that we have the greatest man of all time ready to destroy her on live television today.
Tyler Hernandez
It's so blatant in Germany it's sickening. News about the third debate starts with calling Trump a sexist and questioning whether he has even a chance to come back with his disastrous poll numbers. Look up who owns the channel and all I can say is Holla Forums is always right.
William Hughes
Lads should I bet now while the odds are still 4/1 or should I wait until after the debate? Chances are the media is going to try and hype up another Clinton win with clips edited very carefully which might raise the betting odds against him for a higher return if he does win (Kek plz) but its more likely he is going to irreparably wreck Clinton on stage tonight so, the odds might go down as his chances of winning go up.
WHAT DO?
Jackson Sanders
After the success with the second debate, he'll probably follow the same basis as that. I just threw $40 on him at 5-1, I'm confident.
Charles Sullivan
it depends on if you think hillary will have a 'trump'-card. Personally, i think she will, and after the debate you can bet you ass they will solely talk about that. personally, i think hillary will try to drudge up those made up allegation of rape, and any response of trump can be used to say "trump doesn't deny rapes; trump under fire fore rape allegations in debate; hillary questions trump on alledged rape" It won't matter how good trump will do the debates in the days after the debate. she just has to make one such statement, and the media will lap it up and cause the entire narrative to push that as a clear victory for hillary, standing up for dem womyn.
so if you want my advice, do it after the debate, and let the lugenpresse give you higher odds.
Hunter Martin
Thanks lads
At this point I'm leaning towards and thinking of putting down a bet on the 20/1 Trump wins popular vote by 10% (tho given how hard they are going to try to rig this one that's not exactly a safe bet but, if we are right about public sentiment on this one it could really be a landslide)
Is what I'm worrying about, but that relies on the bookies believing the media hype or not. I'm really thinking with all the evidence Trump has from Wikileaks, the Project Veritas vids, FBI leaks, etc this debate is going to be very, very hard for them to spin their way.
Joshua Barnes
You could always place 75% of your betting total now, and 25% closer to the 8th when Hillary has finally fired off whatever trump card she might have. Dems very well might be saving ammunition for after the debate when Trump doesn't have a media platform to deliver a counterattack on - it could spike the odds in Hillary's (and your own) favour.
Jonathan Price
Was 5/1 earlier in the week on Paddy Power. I put a bet on. Now it's 4/1.
Ryan Garcia
Not a bad idea user, not putting all my eggs in one basket seems the way to go so.
Lucas Rogers
How much were you going to bet?
Connor Carter
most professional betters do it like this, if i remember correctly. if the odds have fallen, you still get the previous odds, and if it rises a lot, you can still the extra for the odds-change.
Anthony Jackson
They have this weird "Bet 50, get a free 50 bet" offer going on on Ladbrokes so 100 total. I'm thinking: 50 on a Trump win 25 on that 20/1 "wins the popular vote by 10%" and save the last 25 for whether or not the odds go up closer to the election
Joshua Fisher
Quick question for any eurobros, my mother is a native German and she said the news already had the transcript out on the Obongo Italy thing before it was aired.
Said she read exactly what Obongo was going to say before he said it while she watched the speech live. Is the live delayed or do they do a hidden conference with Euro media before they give the public one.
Christian Morris
Not a bad idea, I can't really state how optimistic I am about the election. I have some concerns over the rigging talk, but if this election is a fair one, I think everyone is going to be surprised by how much support Trump has over Hillary.
Adrian Ward
Yeah the rigging has me pretty concerned too, but with this much public attention on it and Trump being able to use this as ammo in this debate it could completely smash the media blackout, either way I really do think the polls are heavily lying and our boy can pull this one off in a big way unless something absolutely disastrous happens.
The man has started a movement, even if they tried to stop him now the momentum will keep growing, it would just galvanize distrust in the media if anything happened to him either way so my hopes are high.
Thanks again for the advice lads
Jason Roberts
He's definitely got the silent majority vote, and the polls are biased as they ALWAYS oversample democrats over republicans. Here's hoping in a few weeks time we'll have a bit more cash in our pockets.
Robert Price
They have been saying "Trump has had a disastrous week" on a weekly basis. Based on what the media tells us, we should all be amazed he beat Kasich.
Chase Fisher
QUESTION
Let's say I theoretically want to put $1,000 on Trump. Where would be the best place to do that?
Jaxson Bell
sportsbet.com.au (ausfag) has him at 5-1
William Hill
...
Austin Jackson
lul
Ryder Brooks
Swede here, same with the lugenpress here, hopefully there will be a massive freak-out when Trump wins.
Even better if he calls out the Swedish gov support for Daesh.
Aaron Parker
Well, if you have a lot of time on your hands, you could put a little bit down on a bunch of sites because they usually offer a first time deposit bonus up to about $100 or so.
In July, right after the RNC, I went to Bodog.eu to put $100 on Trump, which was matched to $200. Unfortunately, the odds were only 1.8:1 at the time because I bet right after his RNC bump.
Also, wherever you bet, make sure you will be able to withdraw your funds. If your state makes it illegal to bet, make sure you can do it in a way so that no one can track you.
I know Bodog lets you withdraw in buttcoins, which is what I'll be doing.
Luke Miller
I placed $500 on him winning last month when it was at 2.60. Strongly considering doing another 500 because he's at 5.00 now.
Jeremiah Cruz
As always with the final boss, expect them to have absurdly unfair advantages: +10%, +15% to overall vote. And our hero will best them anyways. The only path to victory is a landslide victory, and Trump will win, so I know it'll be a landslide victory. Though it might not reflect in the numbers due to all the cheating, it'll look like a thin margin.
Thomas Jenkins
Always the first post. Always.
Asher Diaz
Finngol confirms. Our media's coverage of US elections reeks lies and unprofessionalism. They take clearly biased US media and their lies at face value.
Part of it is wishful thinking, considering most journalists are leftists, but I think part of this ridiculously stupid coverage boils down just to the simple fact that they're really fucking stupid. I could do better job than most editors in this country regarding US elections.
