The Election is over

New Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Over samples Democrats by 24.3%
752 Dems 570 Republicans used in the poll


Heavily under samples independent voters as Always as they are 219 out of 1705 sampled.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

web.archive.org/web/20160928191313/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.27_.16__.pdf

Other urls found in this thread:

gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
people-press.org/topics/political-party-affiliation/
archive.is/t5S5x
sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/VoterRegNumbers.html
gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx
archive.is/o3yHD
nytimes.com/2016/09/28/upshot/prediction-markets-score-it-a-rout-clinton-over-trump.html
countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

Fox news poll comes out Friday that's gonna be the one to look out for.

what are they even trying to prove by getting the numbers this far off when we can see the methodology? are they really just expecting no one to look at it or talk about it? i mean, that wouldn't surprise me, but wouldn't overstating their lead prevent their own side from turning out thinking they've already won?

It's not over sampling democrats at all when compared to republicans.
The only thing under sampled here is independents.

Wrong.

there really should be separate polls for different registrations.

this is barely over 20% of the population. why should we believe these numbers are representative of the population at large?

I'm predicting a Reagan style landslide

I'm really starting to wonder why they don't lie about their sample demographics. How could they be called on it if they did?

haha faggot you missed the first post by one kill yourself shill

Hitler dubs checked

No, but the poll doesn't account for non-registered voters.
I'm not saying we don't have a massive advantage, I'm saying that OP is wrong when he says democrats are over-sampled compared to republican.

30,000,000/570 = 52,631.5789
52,631.5789*752 = 39,578,947.3
The numbers work out and it's probably what they went with.


You fall at level 4.
You digits won't save you.

"As of October 2014 , Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, when party "leaners" were included; those figures changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican after the November 2014 elections."

I can only guess (((they))) are massively incompetent

Here is the 2016 numbers of registration per state as collected by ballot Access News.

Damn, I was hoping he could win new york.

BTW, was browsing jewtube and found this.

So essentially some of the people who identify as Republicans in those Gallup polls are either not registered to vote or are still registered as Democrats or Independents?

you are dead wrong factual nigger.

kill yourself.

The new meme on MSM is that 'primary turnout does not predict general election turnout'.

this is why you leftists faggots are doomed to lose.

Trump is going to win and there is nothing you can do about it, but cry.

That's quite possible.
You can identify Republican and be registered Democrat and then vote cross-party in the general election.
All I can go by is the registration numbers of the last held collection from a historically recognized source and they line up very well with the party-weighted poll in the OP (independents are still way under represented though).


You seem to just want to shitpost.
Every knows I was talking about your claim in the OP about this particular poll.
You assertion falls apart when held up to registration numbers and mathematical re-scaling of sample size.


I already refuted that claim with sourced data - in this post
Read the thread next time, lad.

By the way what the true splits should be:

gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

You are a retarded nigger, that does not understand the meaning of a source.

Try citing where you got the spreadsheet from

here ill help you out dumb nigger, this is how you cite a source

people-press.org/topics/political-party-affiliation/

You appear to lack an argument.
I find it silly that you can't just search up "Ballot Access News February 2016 Registration Totals" even after I gave you the name of the source and the header of the paper.
I'll be nice one more time and give you the online text version - in archive too!
archive.is/t5S5x

or maybe this, here is break down of Colorado voting demographics

I wonder who I can trust some nigger tier spread sheet

Or the Colorado Secretary of state website

sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/VoterRegNumbers.html

this is why you libtards are fucking doomed
lies vs reality

+ 3 for dems, seems less than 24.3%??

gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx

weird still other sorces are 2%-4% Dem

Fox JEWS rigs their polls as well

Now I don't feel too bad in making fun of you.

The difference is though that cuckservatives and the right in general actually go out and vote. By and large, lots of democrats and leftists just sit at home and virtue signal. They don't actually get out and cast a vote or write it in. lt actually takes effort to vote, which is something that leftists have little to non of.

Also true.

This is why Bernie lost.

Many of Boynie's supporters were underage and/or foreigners. You don't know how many times I'd be kicking the shit out of a Bernfag in the some comment section and I'd eventually ask them "How old are you?"…."15. Why?"

At that point I would post at Smug Trump at them and laugh my ass off.

*post a Smug Trump

Not sure why but l thought of Larry King when l saw that first image.

at this point I am convinced you are a paid shill


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

They did the last two presidential elections, but that was because of Obama. With him being gone and replaced by some cunt they don't really like, except for insane feminazis, don't expect the same kind of turn-out on their side.

Your rhetorical trickery don't work here, chosen man.

When the amount of people polled per party is scaled to national party registration levels, the gaps of people in the two data sets is comparable.
More democrats were polled because more democrats exist; democrats are not being over polled.
I'm more concerned that you don't seem to care that independents were severely underpolled, instead just shitposting at me when I explained this multiple times in later posts.

Way ahead of you. I unbiased the poll using gallup data (pic related). Made a shitty infograph that we can spread to normalfags once it gets touched up.

yes you cited a retarded source where dems are are at +25%, everyone is calling you are retarded faggot because it contradicts hundreds of other sources that put dems at +2-4%

Wrong.

Let's hope the polls go in our favor. The Media is hyping up Hillary's "win" nom stop

Thank you for correcting the record.

There could have been no more than 3 other non-partisan sources posted here; two of them were the same source, and the other was two years old.


It is as clear as day that he responded to himself pretending to be another person.
You're shitposting.

Your link is from February (and aside from that it's fake and gay). Do you know how many people registered to vote in primaries for Trump? He had unprecedented support in the primary, a lot from outsiders who only joined to vote for him.

He was adding to his own post, newfag. Not pretending to be different people. It's a common way of linking two connected posts.

You lost all credibility.

maybe EVERYONE is wrong, every MSM source, every alt source, every fucking source to include liberal faggots like huff post or TYT who put dems at a 4-5% advantage. But hey +25% could be correct and everyone is wrong but one shill on pol.

this is why I think he is a shill.

here i am adding,

they halfway know how to shitpost refute us.

The concept of samefagging is lost on you two.

please stop you are losing. SAD!

You respond to me twice pretending to be different people in each post and somehow I'm a loser shill?
You're astroturfing your opinion without switching IPs and everyone can see it.

Faggots, if you think someone is a shill you don't respond to them. Now shut up and get back on topic.

ill expand, again the same person unless if are confused.

when you try to call someone a same fag for adding another point to their argument it makes you look like a shill since you cannot connect that I may reply to my own post but you got it right that the same person replied in on thread.

maybe you will get a promotion with this advice.

Trump is going to win, it's destined. Many of the undecided voters usually choose on polls Clinton because

But come Election Day the majority of those people are going to flip.

Trump landslide is happening and the liberal tears will form a waterfall.

Keep trying to cover your ass, you outed yourself.

again you shills can almost mimic us. almost. again same person so i dont confuse you ill start adding my name to help you out

does this help? see we have IDs here so it does not help to "samefag" but since you dont seem to know this i will make it easy on you.

Ironically responding to yourself while namefagging won't undo your fuck-up or normalize the practice.

again fact vs opinion
your opinion is +25 dems in the USA
Fact it 2-4%+ dems.

please if its anywhere near +25% lib in the USA outside the west coast or North east let me know and I will leave for eastern Europe today.

how does it feel to know trumps going to win and there is nothing you can do about it?

...

You have no argument.
You made a false claim, I posted a cited source that blew you the fuck out.
Everything since has been damage control on your behalf, going even as far to call Ballot Access News's registry report an "opinion".
Sad!

How do you get 24%? Wtf? Compared to repubs, the dems were ~11 points higher. Theres a few % more dems than repubs so it seems they oversampled by about 6% points which means trump and clinton is a tight race as we already know. They are lying sacks of shit but how did you arrive at 24??

Only 31 states? Is that statistically accurate to represent all 50 states?

he is saying there are 24% more democrats than republicans in that poll.

Actually I'm not sure if that's right now that I look at it.

Nobody can read anymore.
I'm done explaining and re-explaining this shit.

Correct

gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

Oh isn't this the primary registration totals? This doesn't accurately reflect party affiliation, the GOP and DNC have very different primary rules.

yes lots of Bernie niggers registered and did not vote.

math for babies 570/752=75.7

thus there are 24.3% more dems

...

Except isn't it in relation to the total amounts?

D = 752 / 1705 = 44.1%
R = 570 / 1705 = 33.4%
I = 1 - .441 - .334 = 22.5%

They are definitely oversampling dems, +10, but it's not +24. I've seen a lot of reliable predicts that shows that Dems are +3 or +4 tops.

You fucking retard. Divide dems by total sampled then reps by total sampled and compare the %

Dont act smug when youre this empty headed

Hi Satan.

I'm reminded of Dunning-Kruger at this time.

Which means they oversampled almost nearly the amount clinton is (((ahead by))).


Would love to see polls where they include proper amount of independents since independents consistently answer that they "disagree" with what direction the country is heading in these polls.

Why do you guys think the prediction markets are in Hillary's favor by a pretty large margin? I would honestly put my money on Trump and not because I'm voting for him.

I don't understand why people are putting money on Hillary. I guess it all comes down to swing states or something?

archive.is/o3yHD
nytimes.com/2016/09/28/upshot/prediction-markets-score-it-a-rout-clinton-over-trump.html

Went back and read your posts unfortunately. Nearly all of them are accusing people of samefagging and memes. Glad I wasted my fucking time

Especially niggers. With no Obama they aren't going to turn out.

I'm done looking at polls to be honest really. I have this to look at now. This is turnout this election here in Florida. Hillary is getting schlonged if you go with the consistent polling metric that shows that indies go to Trump 2/3 of the time. Just look at that beautiful shit. Romney lost by less than 10k votes and was down by 5%. Trump is up 4-6% depending on if you want to use independents or not. That's a nigh 10 point shift. This is stuff that helps me sleep easy at night.

THAT DOESN'T MEAN YOU SHOULDN'T VOTE THOUGH YOU LAZY CUCKS

countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Praise kek

The poll is 44% dems and 33% pubs.
11 point difference
In 2008, there was only a 7point difference in voter turnout between the parties.

Do you really believe that Hillary will drive more dem turnout than king nigger?

If you count dead people and illegal aliens, then yes I could believe it.

Illegals weren't granted the right to vote outside of CA IIRC. I wasn't expecting to win that state anyway so I'm not too worried.

How come I never take part in these phone polls? Infact, I never even heard of anyone that I know of taking part in these.

No

I had back to back phone polls on 2 days.
Is on a land line though.

i put 400 hundos on trump, if he wins i just got myself a better trip to grorious nippon in Janurary

also predictit is liberal as fuck so that might have something to do with the way they bet their money,if you want to be the contrarian there is money to be made.

no thats screwing the data.

R = 570 = 37%

D = 752 = 49%

I = 216 = 14%

Niggers = 176 = fuck them discarded

Thus 12% over.

Pic related is the result of all early voting in Florida in 2012. Hillary is so fucking dead in this state.

No it's not, it's basic math and you're failing hard at it. Show us your numerator / denominator for how you get your numbers.

TLDR;

Under samples GOP fags by 8%, so trump is +2
Under samples Indies by 20% ish who favor trump maybe +2%, guess what trump at +4% fucking mirrors LA Times poll.

1538 total
752 D
570 R
216 I

can you correct the record for me

Man their American offices are ran by such leftist faggots too, they must have been kvetching like crazy.

That wasnt the total surveyed. Look at the psf again and redo your math.

Well what does it mattwr 12 difference versus 11 it's practically the same.

Romney lost Florida by 70k votes total. We are going to annihilate the dems this election. It's not even comparable.

Sometimes the favorite loses.

Newfags forget when Trump was at 1% odds on those same websites.

176 people were not counted in dem vs rep vs indie, cannot count them they are N/A, no data, we could put them in indie but they dont identify as that, they identify as not voters FAGGOT

praise kek for he heareth our pleas

That was utterly uninteresting and was clearly puked up by a childish mongrel with no talent.
It isn't even good enough to make me mad.

You don't understand normies, there's a lot of people who go and just want to "vote for the winner". With undecideds still at 6%, it's an important number of voters.

this is who we face.
it should make you happy.

...

That's actually how you're supposed to eat sushi though. Sushi is considered finger food in Japan. It's only Westerners who insist on using chopsticks.

holy shit, that's almost a rounding error.

maryland is full of niggers or what?

The Record

There's more than 30% more Dems than Reps in that poll. There are slightly more Dems than Reps in actuality. That's why he's saying 24% oversampled - based on whatever numbers he's using. The best sampling I know of was around 32-28-40 before this election started. Of course lots of people registered to vote for the first time, either to vote for Sanders or to vote for Trump.

Guess who the heads of voting machine corporations are rooting for?

It's who counts the votes that decide elections.

Look at what happened to Bernie.

point taken, they can just rig it. but if it ever came out that would lead to civil war.

San Andreas fault when?

*jewry

Wtf fellow goys I'm not even going to vote now!

We should just not vote fellow skinhead neo-nazi alt-rightists, Trump has already won!

Someone needs to shoop this to say

the independents sampled are actually demonrats

Aren't all of these poll numbers calculated on the assumption Clinton is going to achieve Obama-level turnout from key minority demos?

Anybody with a functioning brain can tell you that shit is not going to happen, and that alone should be enough to sink her chances.

If black vote turns out even 5% less than they did for Obongo then she loses automatically. That's always been my contention. Media just benefits from keeping this a tight horse race because a massacre doesn't really attract eyeballs.

No the (((media))) wants people to believe Clinton has a chance because if they don't nobody will vote for the cunt.

That too, but I think even they know she's dead in the water.

Because they know that the (((media))) will not cover it. It's the same reason why political assassinations are done so clumsily that we can so easily see them. They're not trying to win us over, they're trying to win normies over, who don't look that far into stuff.

normalfags don't look at the methodology.
They'll just spam it on every social media and close their ears.

because you retard. THey are depending on the majority of no nothing, burger quaffing, beer slurping, t shirt stained, low brow american. To not be able to interpret these things. But just look at the numbers.

Same thing happened with Brexit. A few rich libshits tip the odds. Make money off of them.

I have a hedged strategy such that if Trump wins, I win something like 30%, but if he gets 370 electoral votes (ie a landslide), I win something like 800%

The only "opinion" that is fucking retarded is people thinking all registered dems are:

a) going to vote
b) going to vote dem

With what happened to Bernie the odds of people who are already generally too lazy to vote actually going out and voting is about as low as it's going to get. This too is an opinion, but at least it's based in reality.