I posted this on 4chan Holla Forums where the shilling is going into over drive mode...

I posted this on 4chan Holla Forums where the shilling is going into over drive mode. I have barely researched this myself, and my argument is not as tight as it can be. Critique it so I can refine it:

My argument focuses on 3 factors:

1. Shy Tory Factor/Bradley effect
2. Voter turnout
3. Bias in the polls.

The shy Tory factor is a phenomenon in which those who hold political opinions that are outside of their own life's personal Overton window vote differently than how they poll. Trump is politically incorrect and dissuades a lot of the "moderate" voters from admitting they support him. Trump's support is much greater than it appears and the polls do not accurately reflect this level of support.

When polling agencies conduct polls, they do NOT typically poll first time voters. There are MILLIONS of Americans who have never voted, and were not registered to vote prior to Trump's rise. This so called "monster vote" typically consists of the uneducated and poor. Trump has tremendous support among poor whites who have never voted once in their entire lives, these are MILLIONS of untapped voters that do not show themselves in the polls.

See this video: youtube.com/watch?v=hiGDvph6D4Y

Combine that with the observed increased turn out in the Republican primaries, the amount of Republicans dwarfing the Democrats by millions, the low turnout a candidate like Hillary will generate, and Jill Stein siphoning Hillary votes from Bernouts, and the situation already does not look good for Hillary.

Lastly, what we all know to be true. The polls are biased. Polling agencies purposefully manipulate polls in ways that make Clinton appear to win. Under-sampling independents, oversampling Democrats, or plain rigging. The polls are all conducted by people who are openly anti-Trump and stand nothing to gain by being honest. We have evidence of this here:

breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/30/exclusive-pat-caddell-blasts-reuters-back-rigging-polls-to-show-clinton-winning/Next we have events that can change the minds of those who aren't already on the Trump train to make the biased polls look a bit more even:

1. Debates (3 of them)
2. Wikileaks
3. Hillary's poor health
4. Trump hasn't been using negative ads yet.

If Trump crushes Hillary in any one of the debates, expect a rise in the polls for Trump. We all know Hillary is a shitty debater and Trump is a master persuader. It's not unreasonable to think that Trump can't make something out of the debates.

If Assange leaks his "guaranteed Hillary indictment" at an opportune time, Trump will use it to his advantage. We've already seen what the leaks could do to Hillary's polling numbers. In my opinion the best time to drop it would be a few days before the election or a few days before a major debate.

If Hillary's fucked up health gets worse, or gets more difficult to hide from the public this too will have an effect on her polling.

Lastly, Trump himself has said recently that he has spent ZERO in negative ads while Hillary has spent somewhere around 200 million. I predict that Trump and his team will time his ad spending so as to splurge when Hillary has run out of or is running out of her funding. Negative ads obviously affect polling.

NOW, I think with all that said it's not safe to say that Trump is over or Trump is finished. Quite the contrary, I think things are going his way.

Other urls found in this thread:

archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/85172223/
archive.is/Ff0iI
abcnewsgo.co/2016/08/abc-live-poll-who-are-you-voting-for/
8ch.net/pol/res/7121647.html
archive.is/hysvr
usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

You can see the results and my arguments here:

archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/85172223/

The shilling on 4chan Holla Forums has gotten unbearable and we really need some smart people there with strong arguments to stop demoralization. Not much is being done to fight against it. I'm beyond capable of doing it, but I need to hone my knowledge about Trump and the election process in general…

Gas yourself tbh.

You're an idiot. 4chan Holla Forums gets 100 times the amount of traffic and views than this board. By turning your back on it, you are effectively restricting your influence to an echo chamber (what this board is). You need to venture out and CHANGE PEOPLE'S MINDS and win people over.

Fuck off back to 4cuck faggot.

Interesting analysis, thanks.

Never mention cuckchan here again. What were you thinking?

Are you two going to even read what I posted?

Or are you two shills as well? The narrative that is being spread EVERYWHERE across the internet even on Holla Forums is that Trump is losing. You need to do something about it. You need arguments. I'm offering arguments. But I need critique, more information, etc, etc.

If everything is going according to Trump's plan, then Trump does not require our intervention.

Trust in Trump, worship Kek, and enjoy the show.

Mate everyone knows 4/pol/'s pozzed beyond repair but that doesn't mean you can't offer them a little medicine to slow down the death

That's not a convincing argument to most people. When you are bombarded by people spamming links to polls that show Trump losing by 10 points in key swing states, losing on average of polls, the constant negative media spin, saying its part of Trump's plan isn't very convincing.

You need arguments.

I try my best to explain why it is Trump is losing in the polls, and why they don't matter, but I think there are things I'm missing. Links to polling people and some influential liberals for example,

And by that I mean something like a link between the guy in charge of a specific polling institution and an influential Democratic party member, that sort of thing. Yes I know they are all Jews, but that goes without saying.

My argument that it is Trump's plan is that your OP post described exactly how Trump is actually winning.

You're not bombarded with people spamming links to polls if you don't go to fucking cuckchan. Have you ever wondered why we call it cuckchan?

Tell me more about this….window

they did, and they won`t argue you in good faith,
this is the MO of a shill, find the weakest point and/or any distraction stchick to refute your whole post my merely pointing at it, greentexting/stawmanning/shunning you, and never replying again.

although when you point it out, IF the shill/useful idiot is on a static ID, he might post a 2nd time to appear legitimate.

now, back to topic, your OP is sound but too much emphasis on ifs, at the end, it sound like wishful thinking.
Proof of biased polls can be foundation argument, make sure to clear the
with: the polls are ALWAYS rigged even with thrum is winning, just not in his favor and his actual support is always higher, which circle to your shy tory factor/biased poll by pollsters with a stake in this. In fact any pollsters with a track record of biased journalism should not be counted at all, and the remaining ones need to have their methodology examined, those with discrepancies should be discarded as well, even if we magically find one rigged in favor of Trump, that one too should not be counted.
even track record of polling should be considered to see if they consistently favor dems over reps. surver specific states, etc.

personally I don;t mind polls under, makes ya an underdog and can help people go out to vote more, as long the margin aint too high and/or people know the polls are rigged and that they need to work twice as hard getting the votes out. Trump ahead in polls make lefties scared enough to go out on election day.

i dont think hillary is gonna stop getting donated to by the "jews" and those allied with them
whenever shes gonna run out of cash soon some "jew" is just gonna give her more because they want her to "win" that badly

to support your argument for there being a substantial silent majority, if some of the protests at trump rallies are any indicator, social coercion gives incentive to opponents to remain silent.
you make a solid case for "I think things are going [more] his way [than polls have suggested]." as there are those elements you stated that have the potential to skew results regardless of the intentions of polling agencies. and… there is also the potential for polling agencies to be biased.
there is the potential. people ought to be made to recognize this.
disjuncts are useful when persuading people.
"god exists" is an uncertainty.
"god does not exist" is an uncertainty.
"god exists or does not exist" is a certainty.
when persuading people who propose the first or second proposition, assuming the third proposition is better than both because it is logically true. it may open the opponent up to examining the truth in full.

intuition is the best indicator of the truth, though. don't miss the forest for the tree. one who know how to think, and assails his mind with information beyond this will have a much better lead to the truth than one who does not do these things. there are a lot of variables to consider when attempting to predict social behavior.

also:
cuckchan became cuckchan somehow.
guess how.
guess who's here?

Cuckchan has the entire mod team run by the JIDF. This was confirmed by Alex Lifshitz who admitted to taking part in the process. I wouldn't worry about what they think because nearly everybody on there is either a bot or a shill.

There's alot of shills here too, user

the PG Farnsworth poll
archive.is/Ff0iI
the ABC poll
abcnewsgo.co/2016/08/abc-live-poll-who-are-you-voting-for/

Posting any content on 4chan is useless. Don't even bother. Interesting analysis though, I'd be interested in seeing further analyses you can come up with.

Normie fronts are very necessary, even the reddit drops very minor redpills every day. Without them, all you'd have is censored twitter comments and the liberal media.

Except that these fronts are SJW owned so nothing unpozzed can spread there. That's why they nuke anything approaching bad-goy thinking and actively support race mixing threads and pro-Israeli threads.

I don't buy into that. Seems a bit silly to say that a board with potentially hundreds of thousands of unique posters a month is all shills or bots. Need some real proof.

No, not really. They are too easy to detect and get banned.

I know about those polls. Online polls are probably a good counterpoint, along with something else I neglected to mention, social media. I could probably throw that in somewhere…

So basically Trump has a shit ton more of social media follows, likes, etc. Based on that you'd THINK he'd be more popular than what the polls are showing right? Possible counter arguments I can come up with are international elements (a guy in UK or Sweden) for example following him, but that can also apply to Hillary. Seems like a weak argument to make.

That poll on the right seems sketchy to me based on the methodology used.

I wish, but there's no way those polls are accurate. Same with the third pic, the source for the article links to a forum post which just says it's a repost from Bonnie Woolfolk Smith, whom has no bing results. It's just a spam message.
The first two polls unreliable because Clintons core base are niggers, spics and middle aged women. None of them use the internet to visit abc news.

they actually don't get banned that much, every time the mods clean up, they come back whining about heavy moderation, how Holla Forums is run by a mudslime, how we are stifling free speech, how we circlejerk/muh safespace cuz they got banned.

mods actually have to wait for them to be so obvious than they can't whine once banned, the shills keep skirting the fine line between shitposting (and not the funposting shitposting but plain retarded shitposting) and obvious shilling. it's on purpose.

The same way a Holla Forumsack don't wear swastika to work going pull heil hitler RWDS shootfest, they can't come here full marxist bernbro shilling hillary BFF, they have to try to fit it enough to invoke reasonable doubt when they get canned.

they will have an interest in positions of power wherever they are.
through whatever means, what they hope to achieve is to form public opinion. there is a public there with opinions to form.
4chan and anywhere else should not be outside of the scope of our influence.

the general population has a herd mentality. it's a defense mechanism.
polling exploits this.
it's a bit of a double edged sword as it can also urge people to the voting booths.

also
which side of the sword do you think is sharper; and why would polling agencies wish to skew the results in the first place?

Trump just needs to destroy her in the debates, or trigger a full-blown seizure pant shitting response. I mean fuck, Hillary already has brain damage, Trump should kick her ass in the head when she's down out of spite. Completely destroy that bitch.

4chan is our ebaums world.

The 4chan people annoy the piss out of me because they can't handle pressure at all and are very easily demoralized. I mean, Trump streamrolling his competition in the primaries kind of sets people up for that but they really need to harden the fuck up. I guess the only real solution is experience dealing with "choppy waters".

Yes, but he just calling you a fag. Even if he is a shill, he's right. Posting on cuckchan is gay as fuck.

I've never agreed more strongly with an user than I do with this good man

Bad but fun attempt at new chan chick

Yes thats why they need a counter narrative.

you might want to look at this OP, if ya still around

8ch.net/pol/res/7121647.html
archive.is/hysvr
usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/

Quality post.

I'm with you 100%

This is an echo chamber and 4chan does get wayyyy more traffic. Keep up the good fight user!

/this

you fish where the fish are, which means going to reddit and other pleb tier verboten locations

Please return to the nearest gas chamber.

Another "Take no action" shill

The only reason the overton window is shifting and people are breaking free from the kosher globalist cuck conditioning is because people like "us" started this years ago. "Us" in this case means anyone that spoke up publicly or privately over the past years.

Trump is a SYMPTOM of this movement (though he helps perpetuate it), you vapid mouth-breathing vegetable.

I agree with venturing out.

But latly 4/pol/ has been unbearable.

It will revert soon, but for now it's gotten bad.

Oh fuck off. Nothing echo about this place.

Everything that can be posted, is posted.
Only Holla Forums which deliberately bans for speech, is an echobox.