Nate Silver: Trump has a 57.5% chance of winning

My suspicion is that independents are being undersampled in most if not all polling and Trump leads among independents by a huge margin.

November will bring a landslide

only 99.99% is enough

But I thought Maine wasn't supposed to be cucked.

My plan was to move to there with my girlfriend and have a cottage close to innawoods.

This. Here in Maine we have 'Republicans' and 'Democrats'. In office they are notorious for not towing party lines.
The only reason we are blue is because the 33% independents vote for the nicer candidate, usually dem. This will probably be a year the Maine vote is split between candidates, lots of right leaning people furious who wouldn't care to vote otherwise, Bernie bros absolutely disinterested in politics altogether now.

Fuck I hate living in commiefornia. Still voting for Trump, though.
Please nuke the cities here. They really won't be missed.

HAVE WE STARTED THE FIRE?

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this kike has repeatedly underestimated Trump and has been completely wrong about so far. what's his game for this? trying to rally leftists by pointing out that they could really lose?

no idea. has she made a public speeches recently, besides when glassberg sucked her clit of course?

Portland and a few other cities are. That's a third of the population.
Luckily county and town laws are strong compared to state, it's a totally different place in the north and east. Cheap land, good neighbours, low minority count.

The few hispanics that make their way up here are usually 'cultured' in their own way. Just stay out of the poor, somali, parts of the cities and it's a good state. Our natives aren't too assmad, and rarely leave their reservations. Often too drunk as elsewhere.

he then tweeted is Poll+ thingy that still favors clinton

I want to keep asking: Does anyone believe that Hillary can attract people to the voting booth? How will she get people to vote? Only around 57% of Americans voted during King Nigger and that's a relatively large turnout compared to the median. How will Hillary get people to the voting booth? Someone answer this. We already know Trump can make people go to the voting booth. How will Hillary get Bernouts and other trash to vote for her?

I'd wager its impossible.

REMINDER THAT THE POTUS IS DECIDED BY THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
Trump doesn't even need >50% of the vote - he just needs to swing the right states.

So on the one hand he wants to maintain credibility, and on the other, he wants to appeal to his NYTimes reader base.

In any case though, once he starts being consistently wrong, he's done for.

this is a pretty good summary. I'd add that midcoast seaside towns up through downeast are tourist shit and pretty cucked with hippies. some great restaurant and breweries to go to early or late in the season though. if you stay away from the coast and the cities, disgusta portlandia dirty lew bang 'er, you're pretty okay.

the south is pretty fucked from out of state faggot moving taking over southern coastal towns. it's like a little nyc practically. I think rato did so well because there are a fuckton of baptist, evangelical churches in the rural areas. way more than you would think.

two biggest problems in Maine are:
>lots of single mothers

you already have a gf, so that's good. get a job before you move, or be prepared be some sort of contractor or manual labor related blue collar job. commuting an hour+ a day is worth it to live in a small town and work somewhere that has jobs.

Memes require the truth. I think you are right but this amount to nothing more than shitty propaganda

Yeah, he's still predicting a Clinton victory, it's just the "what if the election were held today?" model that has Trump ahead.

Though in the other polls he's still giving Trump a much better chance than he was a few weeks ago.

RIP SHILLARY

As others have said go up to northern Maine, like Aroostook and shit. Southern Maine has all of the population and sadly cucks the rest of the state.

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His Polls+ is bullshit and is wrong as fuck half the time, the polls only are on point though.

Come on Colorado, fucking turn red, I know we can cuck those Boulder faggots.

I forgot to mention, our state literally means "red" in Spanish.

Nuke Boulder

t. former CoSpringsfag

Colorado is on my short list of places to find a job in and move to once I graduate and start looking for jobs. Does Boulder alone really fuck over the whole state? I thought it would have been most of the big cities.

Also, any advice or inside info on Colorado would be appreciated.

Son of a bitch. Nuke Detroit and Flint please.

Nate (((Aluminum))) said about a month or so ago that Trump had a 20% chance of winning.

Nate is a mess.

Denver's surrounding areas and Boulder both have a lot of pull in the state

Bikes are legally considered vehicles in CO. You have to give them the same space as a vehicle when passing them on the road

They could have listened. I explained to them for over a year how they could defeat Trump.

But they couldn't let go of the progressive stack and stop alienating straight white men. Now they wonder why they don't have enough of that demographic to take the white house.

They could have fucking listened.

He didn't "fuck up", he did exactly what Shep Smith was doing during the Munich shooting, and went with what he wanted and hoped would happen instead of what was likely to happen. They're a lot like sports fans.

He unironically pats himself on the back for "predicting" that a once in a lifetime meme candidate who had enormous appeal with the voting blocks the Dems need would beat two of the worst candidates the Republicans could have possibly put up.

He doesn't know anything about politics and it looks like we're crossing over into "make it up as we go" instead of the simple solution which would be to slowly back away and go back to analyzing the 1983 MLB playoffs.

There's being wrong, and there's not knowing what you're talking about.

GET THE FUCK OUTTA HERE

Fucking hippie bikefaggots. Fucking bikes are one of my fucking pet peeves and I want bikers to be fucking gassed. That really puts me off.

Top Kek the ceiling just got 10% higher.

Did you enlighten grams with a red pill or two, she's old she must take a bunch of pills already, a few more won't hurt.

I bet Silver wishes the internet wasn't forever.

CO is full of cuckservatives and DUDE WEED LMO jerkoffs.

I could be wrong on Michigan, but this is my prediction as of now.

Fuck. Goddammit. I was hoping for some nice redpilled innawoods communitieswhere there are also jobs, since the two things are, for some inexplicable reason, mutually exclusive. I don't mind small doses of DUDE WEED LMAO faggots because it reminds me who the enemy is, but Chamber of Commerce type cuckservatives piss me off the most.

Shit, and CO is so fucking pretty and for the most part, the gun laws are ok.

That image is missing one thing….

JUST

Huffpo Pollster now shoahs a dead heat. Trump on upswing.

please, tell me.

Wasnt Virginia part of the once Glorious Confederate states ?

Can someone explain me why they keep being sided with the Democrat side during the vote projections ?
Is it because of the number of niggers there ?

Sorry if I missed something obvious.

Northern Virginia. It's full of spics and gubmint workers.

lel

Just don't go anywhere east of about 106º west. Most of the state is good.

The problem with CO is Boulder and Denver. They account for like half the population. Denver is full of spics and niggers and Boulder is the most degenerate shithole on the planet behind San Fran. The kind of place where people give their white babies black dolls – and not to just film a jewtube where the baby cries.

This is just the "now" forecast though, meaning what would happen hypothetically if the election were held today. Obviously Trump would win in that situation because the Democratic Party is in a state of total chaos and Bernouts are in revolt, but a lot of that division will likely be mended by November.

1 microshekeli has been deposited into your account

Bernie is a supreme cuck who has already bent the knee to Hillary even in the face of hard evidence that the election was a farce. Many of his fans have already done the same and many more will over the next few months. There will always be a holdout group that will outright refuse to vote for Hillary, but realistically a lot of them will submit.

See there's the problem in your logic.

You're treating this election like a normal election.

It isn't.

The nature is beautiful but the west's population is so low that two cities make a big difference. The rural areas are somewhat redpilled (people see the horrors in the cities) but yeah… Boulder.

Denver is not even that bad, really. It's shit but as far as big cities go, there are worse ones.

I'd say you move to Colorado just to improve the people moving in but I'd rather recommend you Wyoming as it has all the beauty of Colorado without all the cucks.

Thanks for the advice. keep it coming, if possible!

Yeah, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, the Dakotas and even the eastern parts of Oregon and Washington (though they are cucked) are other places I am considering.

Only problem I see with WY is the general dearth of jobs. I like the low population, no income tax, rural as fuck, etc., but the concern is no damn jobs. I figured CO would give me most of what WY has going for itself, and with the possibility of more jobs.

Oh, same user, different ID.

His methods suck. If he was actually as good as liberals want to believe he is, then he would have had Trump at least over 50% three months ago or earlier. Not fucking 20%.

It wouldn't be bad if bike fags also acted like that. Problem is they follow the rules of being a vehicle half the time and pedestrian the other half

The only thing that scares me are the electoral votes. I already know more people in the US want Trump to win, but fuck, Obama somehow won again because of fucking electoral votes.

Obama still had a majority of votes, though. He won by like 4 points iirc.

FUCK YES TRUMP TURN MY CUCKED STATE RED PLEASE

What really interest me is how light blue the Upper midwest is, and the northwest too.

Everyone's been calling me a retard for thinking that Trump can win Minnesota and Oregon but I think it can happen.

I honestly expect a 1984 Reagan tier blowout.Shillary scandals will come out one by one, and the debates will be one sided

Funny thing is the Dems always wanted to make '1984' a reality, and Trump will help them make it happen in a way they didn't expect

I hope this happens too, but I think people are way too cucked for it.

Hillary's strategy will probably be to avoid debates and confrontational public appearances in general, as she knows it will only make her look worse. When she has to be confronted, she will just talk about how "terrible" Trump is and how the Democratic party needs to be united against him, regardless of her policies.

This would definitely be a blowout if we were still more than 65% white though.

Virginians are a minority in Virginia. All across the South we're being squeezed on both sides by interstate migration and immigration. Blue states are being emptied out since there's no jobs in them because of high taxes and regulations. So you have white transplants going south in addition to the beaner horde moving in. Several Southern states within the next couple of election cycles are due to flip blue. Maryland, Virginia and Florida already have. Coincidentally the natives of those states are a minority. It's not because Southerners suddenly changed their mind out of nowhere about politics.

We're being displaced, disenfranchised and deracinated. Virginia voting Democrat is just an effect of it.

Probably. I mean as the other user said it, our people are pretty cucked, but I think that most of her side will be demoralized and not show up to vote, so it will be just as if the majority of our people had balls. Most will complain about Trump for several months, but when it comes to vote and make a difference they will be no where to be seen. I think because of this, we'll find that the majority of millenials who actually turn up to vote will vote for Trump (ie Holla Forums types of people).

Um, the electoral votes system benefits the GOP… that's always a criticism from the Democrats.

Wrong, and wrong. Exactly the opposite, my little shill.

How? The electoral college empowers the smaller, less populous states. If we went on a pure numbers game, NYC, SF, and LA would basically control the elections.

What an idiot.

lurk more and stfu.
california and jew york have enormous amounts of electoral votes

>Thinks coastal population centers with massive populations wouldn't control the elections totally, while every single non-coastal state flyover country with far lower population and population density is essentially ignored and never campaigned in or their issues addressed.

wew lad

While you've got a point, electoral votes are set proportional to the population with a minimum of 3 per state so it's much more fair. What a flat out proportional system would do is if someone from Commiefornia decided to run, they would get a much higher percantage of the vote due to having a homestate sway over more people and likely have the election on lock, compared to someone else from, say, South Dakota, who would have less of an advantage.

Got some bad news.

And those two poz centers are counter balanced by the rest of the country. Look at the 2012 election results:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

D: 332 R: 206
States carried D: 26 + DC R: 24
Popular vote D: 65,915,796 R: 60,933,500

Not a huge victory, but solid. Though, if you look at the map BY COUNTY, you see that the democrats only won on the coastal, liberal cities. The VAST majority of the people occupying the vast majority of the land went the other way. Pic related.

Nearly every election follows the pattern, with 2000 and 2004 being even more extreme. The center of the country basically balances the liberal faggot coasts.

Guys the electoral votes have me scared

We already know Trump's going to win. I mean, come on, just look at Hillary.

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No, they're actually equal to the number of Congressmen from each state. The number of House members is proportional to population, and the addition of the Senate gives incrementally more weight per population as population decreases. So it's not only the smallest states like WY with higher weight, but TN has more weight per population than PA, for example.

I had forgotten that, but really that makes it semi-proportional, plus two. Regardless, even though some states are weighted unproportionally it's still better than the shitstorm that would happen if Califags could weigh the entire nation down.

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pardon my faggotry for a moment

He was only 22% before when it was 57.2% (diff of 35.5%.

That means Trump currently has a 93% chance of winning (57.5 + 35.5)

Agreed?

Transplants from Mass, NY, CT are not Vermonters. We have been politically-disenfranchised in our own state due to inter-state migration. Vermont was solid red up through the mid-90s, when inter-state migration reached a critical mass. Vermont became the playground state for liberal yuppies from NY and Southern New England; similar to what is happening with Colorado and California-diaspora, except Vermont does not have a spic underclass exacerbating the issue (though I have been seeing a lot of Puerto Ricans in Vermont/Southern New Hampshire recently).

Nate Silver published an article explaining the current polls
archive.is/dVS8X

WE NEED TO MEME HARDER.

Michigan has a high chance of swinging.
Wayne county was 90% of the reason obongo won. Filled with disenfranchised bernouts and loyal imperial guardsmen.

I have a hard time understanding why Holla Forums entrusts these people with status of any sort. You know you cannot trust these slimy cocksuckers in the slightest.

The press & elites don't control an election such as this one, We the People do. Trump will win in November because there is such a yuge outpouring of support for him in the general population, and because so many hate and distrust his opponent.

Stop allowing assholes such as this joker from weilding even the slightest sway over you. Just remember;
Donald Trump will win in spite of these assholes, not because of them.