The Remain Side Will Win

There has been a marked shift since the start of June from “remain” to “leave”.

In past fortnight the Vote Leave campaign has successfully raised the saliency of immigration, while the Stronger in Europe campaign has so far failed to keep the economic risks of Brexit at the forefront of voters’ minds.

This raises the prospect that the late deciders, who generally follow the news least, and have the weakest feelings about the EU per se, will take sides next week on the basis of “controlling our borders” rather than the dangers that Brexit poses for jobs, prosperity and living standards.

We should remember that public attitudes to immigration are prompted largely by the rise in insecurity and inequality over the past decade. Secure, well-paid jobs for millions of people are harder to come by, public services are being squeezed, most people in their twenties cannot afford to become home-owners, and so on. We can debate the reasons—technology, the 2008 banking crisis, demographic pressures on public spending, etc.

newsweek.com/final-week-brexit-safety-first-471153


One reason prediction markets seem to beat the polls is that the polls capture public sentiment in a limited time frame—instead of measuring the likelihood of something actually happening.

Unlike polls, which can run into methodological issues, the prediction markets “quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and are impervious to manipulation,” a 2012 National Bureau of Economic Research paper written by Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz found.

“The consensus among people who’ve studied them is that the prediction markets are at the frontier of forecasting accuracy,” said Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College who has published several papers on the prediction markets.

blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/06/20/who-to-trust-on-brexit-predictions-the-pollsters-or-the-bettors/

IG Brexit Barometer shows 73.5% chance of 'Remain' vote winning


Traders placing bets on the IG Group binary market created for the Brexit vote seem to say ‘No’.

Just three days before the historic UK Brexit referendum, the ‘Brexit Barometer’ tracked by leading UK online trading firm IG Group Holdings plc (LON:IGG) shows a 73.5% chance of the Remain side winning the June 23 vote.

The IG Brexit Barometer is not a poll of the actual expected referendum result. Most of those including the IG-Survation poll show a much closer expected vote, with Remain holding a slight edge over Leave as of today (Monday June 20). IG and Survation will come out with their final pre-referendum poll tomorrow afternoon.

What the Barometer does show is what traders are predicting will happen (i.e. either Remain will win or Leave will win) when the final votes are tallied, not what the Remain vs. Leave margin will be. The data is based on the political binary market IG has created for clients to trade on.

leaprate.com/2016/06/ig-brexit-barometer-shows-73-5-chance-of-remain-vote-winning/

Other urls found in this thread:

reason.com/archives/2016/06/21/the-european-union-separating-myth-from
infidels.org/library/modern/john_loftus/christianity.html
oscarwinningfilms.blogspot.ae/2013/05/rebecca-1940.html
theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/22/1200-business-leaders-back-remain-eu-referendum-vote
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

Or the polls are rigged to make the remain "win" appear to be not rigged. Anyway, if they remain then that's the end of britcucks.

This. There's too much at stake for the British/EU establishment and its supporters to leave this to the British people.

If Remain wins we can expect some revelations a few decades later admitting widespread mail fraud because lol pakis, but of course since the Bremainers had good intentions that's alright

...

Honestly when that start stealing elections, what else is there.

It time to stand up.

Seriously, bets placed on the result of a vote is the easiest thing to rig in a world and it doesn't even require anything tircky; just place a bunch of bets on the side you want to win.

Ever since the Brits rigged the Scottish Independence vote, I've had little trust in British elections/referendums/etc

Same goes for America, with all the voter fraud going on to try and stop Trump and Sanders, but at least the voter fraud here didnt stop the people's will

Scotland has been bitching about England for decades, if not a couple of centuries
When they were given the opportunity to decide if they should leave, they became massively cucked and opted to stay
If that's anything to go by, the UK is cucked to hell and back

They're setting the narrative and climate for when the results are decided.

:^)

You're going to do what Tavistock wants you annoying plebs. Stop pretending otherwise.

whos counting the votes?

In less than a decade, it won't even matter anymore.

Nobody will care enough to reveal anything, because they will be the pakis.

Yet I think Scots are far more cucked than the Brits. So maybe not. Also Scots are full of hot air. Actually being independent from England was too scary.

I'm not sure Brits feel the same about the EU.

Scots are Brits.

England, Scotland, Wales.

Without cuckland in the UK we would have had nothing but a conservative government in power for years and years.

Yes, pay attention especially to how many times they've been saying "it's going to be very very close".

This would mean that it could go either way so people will understand when it's going to be like 51-49.

Exactly.

Quick question. I'm polish in uk, but only since 2015 so I can't vote. I'd vote for leave even if I had to go back, fuck it. If Britain will leave maybe poland will be next. My question is though, will I still be able to work in uk if brexit will happen ? I never had to do any papers besides the insurance number and I remember every contract for job had a question if I have a permit to work in uk. I always did since poland and uk are in eu, but what after brexit ??

YOU HAVE TO GO BACK

Holla Forums is a dumb place to ask this, but given the amount of illegal shits that roam the country, I doubt they would bother with removing EEA citizens. After all, visa-less travel will still be in place.

It will be 51% to Remain. I truly feel a legitimate vote would have Leave win, but democracy is a great little game for the powers that be.

Dear god help us all. I pray that the queen has people observing all of it as she is for leaving. I'd love to see her do something or really just anything to save this nation as is her duty.

Real talk Holla Forums I see it and I'm sure all of you do as well. The white race is too pozzed to save itself at this point. I know it's unpopular to say this but we might need to look into concentrating in a few countries to prevent the complete elimination.

Military coup WHEN?

What you say has a grain of truth in it. But we must not let the pharisees win no matter what. They took away our birthrights and for that they must pay.

God if only her majesty was so inclined. I'd go and help. Fuck this country is sick and needs some assistance, the queen cannot be happy watching this happen so we should have another cull of parliament. Fuck the brexit civil war would be a lovely turn of events, the chance to uncuck ourselves.

When Christianity finally dies in the West, and nihilism has created a "new race". That's when the New Aryan will arise. You're going to have to wait for another 3 generations when the entire world is a Communist African death camp run by China and Jews are hiding behind their walls. In the mean time, enjoy your Jihad.

Am I the only one that supports the monarchy regaining power? Or is the government getting so bad that it's forcing me to think this way?

I mean, the way I'm seeing it is that the monarchy are a human embodiment of the nation. Not only that but their wealth relies heavily on the state of the nation and would therefore have the nation's best interest at heart more so than career politicians willing to sell the country out for money and power.
At the very LEAST the monarchy should be like the House of Lords to keep the government in check.

Why did they relinquish their power in the first place? Did they just get lazy and realize they could keep their wealth without actually having to do work?
I can understand most people's resentment for the monarchy in their current state

Nice try Synagogue of Satan

Funny you speak almost of tribulation though I know you speak perhaps of the pike letters. Good luck killing christianity as a whole, however that's not my point. At some stage resistances have to start. This cannot continue we cannot face this death with bowed heads.

I also support the Monarchy

You Yurpeens are screwed unless you dismantle the EU.

I feel a lot of Brits here support the monarchy coming back in force.

Either the current monarchy have been subverted to actively allow the destruction of their people and lands or someone has a good stranglehold over them.

There's a fair amount of support in Aus too. Enough to stop the blasted republicans at least!

your queen is a whore and she isnt going to do anything. she sold you into this mess

Red-pill more people.
reason.com/archives/2016/06/21/the-european-union-separating-myth-from
he EU institutions were, for the most part, ineffectual, and have increasingly become liabilities. As the example of Switzerland shows, there is no a priori reason to think that a looser cooperation between European states, which would follow British withdrawal from the EU, is incompatible with peace and prosperity.

The most important thing in an election is that you vote no matter what you think the outcome will be. Political polls must be the biggest lie of our time. The demoralization that goes on before the vote is insane, and the turnouts are always shit in every election.

Oh lawdy

Great Post!

infidels.org/library/modern/john_loftus/christianity.html

Friendly reminder that if the jews fuck over brexit, nukes fly.

its what they want, we need pogroms, krystalnacht and night of the long knives instead. Cut the tumors out, don't kill the patient.

Sure, Leave has the voters on its side, but Remain has the vote counters.

Brexit's hurdles
1) Vote counting fraud
2) Cameron simply ignoring the referendum
3) The EU punishing the UK even at the expense of losing billions in trade
4) The USA punishing the UK because our Jew globalists would want it that way.
5) The cucked public actually missing all the enrichment they were enjoying like rape, robbery, murder, fraud, pedophilia.

IMHO Brexit will fail, its simply too late.

Hurr durr Brexit will fail why even bother going on?

Sage for demoralisation thread.

...

Poland won't leave the EU, since it's the EU's biggest welfare queen.

HOW DID BREXIT GO FROM 68% LEAVE : 32% STAY / 45% LEAVE : 55% STAY TO 26.5% LEAVE?

What are you doing Britbongistaniancucks?

They won't, and what the UK will become won't be releasing any truth revelations in decades to come. The oligarchy will be declared infallible and any objectors will be swarmed with murderous shitskins.

rigged poll trying to disenfranchise voters

Should be;

so are you correcting him or saying but would be less suspicious for the poll

I bet $150 on remain winning.

That's me. I quoted the 55 Leave : 45 Stay poll incorrectly, I flipped the numbers.

rofl

shit will be rigged, like every election. Move along

Hi (((defeatist))).

How scared are (((you)))?

oh
good to hear there is a 10% gap so close to the vote

How is this news?

There is simply too much at stake here for the EUrocrats to just let Britain leave. Aren't they responsible for about a third of the EU's total funds?

Except when it comes to Trump. Then they are wrong every time.

Yeah they won't leave. Even if the referendum comes up with leave winning, there is no obligation for the government to go with it anyway.

Its like a damn game of Europa that you can't wake up from

Oh look…another demoralization thread…

sage

Everywhere I go, there's leave posters everywhere, there's pretty passionate people out there, the only local house that has a remain sign had been egged at least five times this month and was forced to take the sign down because of it, leftists are getting a taste of their own medicine, where they are not the majority here. That said, I live in a fairly rural area.

The problem I see is the cities and the giant smog filled shit hole known as Londistan, anywhere with tons of immigrants also has tons of leftists and cucks who will happily vote remain to keep their comfy EU provided wageslave jobs instead of having got actual skills for actual jobs.

I'm also a farmer and it's come to my attention that many other farms I'm in contact with are right wing or at least in favor of Brexit. I'm not sure if this is true throughout the UK but never trust what the media says about the EU being beneficial for our agriculture. It's not, the regulations and the cheap ass imports have fucked us over in the long run. The (((EU))) is NOT friendly for us at all, we all know why…

I really hope that Brexit prevails and that the British people get to the polls and vote Leave, no matter how much they try to rig it, be strong. I heard Burgers realized that votes were being rigged (thx microshit) and they did something about it by exposing it to the masses, if this shit becomes rigged, there's plenty of leave supporters out there that'll prove our point when we call (((the enemy))) out for their bullshit.

Anyways, if they succeed in their dirty lying tricks this time around, do not lose hope! Based Farage has already made it clear that there's enough passionate Leave supporters to go for another referendum, and if that don't work, we take to the streets.

You cannot fight the system while still in it. This is something that remaincucks fail to understand. This is proving true with rigging already.

Let's hope that tomorrow goes well, Friday will be the day that the news is out… I'm scared but at the same time really interested, like that buzz one gets from following a major happening as it happens. This will be a huge happening for Britain.

Thanks god for the filters.

Everyone of you demoralising faggots who post this shit needs a nail to the temple.

Even if cucked hipster masses vote remain, that only means we're in the same position as we were before.

Reminder that UKIP won the majority of the votes in the last election. Regardless if the (((EU))) decide to rig the game, they can only do this for so long. Britain will have its day, and may yet still be Thursday.

That would defeat the whole purpose of having a referendum in the first place.

It reminds me of a scene in the film Rebecca:
oscarwinningfilms.blogspot.ae/2013/05/rebecca-1940.html

I'm an Anglo-Saxon born and raised in Britain. If we vote to stay in the EU, then I'm going to move to Switzerland in a couple of years or some shit.

A late plea for voters to back the remain option in this week’s EU referendum has been issued by 1,285 business leaders who say in a letter to The Times that Brexit would damage Britain’s economy.

Smaller businesses and employers would be particularly vulnerable to any economic shock as a result of a leave vote, according to its signatories, who include the leaders of 50 of the FTSE 100 companies.

“Britain leaving the EU would mean uncertainty for our firms, less trade with Europe and fewer jobs,” they say in the letter.

theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/22/1200-business-leaders-back-remain-eu-referendum-vote

...

I truly believe in a true vote, Leave will win. Our camp is simply much more passionate about this referendum than Remain. Our side is glowing positivity against Remain's constant scare mongering, threats and blackmail. Our side has an older vote, the demographic larger in turnouts against the younger vote.

However, the little voice inside is telling me it will be a close call, but Remain wins. There is simply too much at stake if we leave. Decades, perhaps even centuries of hard work undone. Billions of shekels gone. The EU would collapse quickly and many other countries will want to follow in our footsteps. It would start the pendulum swing to the right and nationalism again.

I can only hope we leave. Hope for the best, expect the worst anons.

really autistic marxist (incorrect) analysis of capitalism

also not an argument

Let's not confuse Corporatism for Capitalism

So go back anyway.

We can't forget that the largest distributer of food stamps in the US is JP Morgan Chase. The more people on food stamps, the more money JP Morgan Chase makes. Corporate America, and especially the bankers, absolutely loves the welfare state.

Where do they spend that money? Walmart.
That's why Walmart won't pay a living wage. So the Government subsidizes it's employees wages with food stamps, then they use the food-stamps at Walmart. Not only are they not paying out, but they are actually receiving the money they would have had to pay to their employees, from the government.

Get fucked, globalist cunts.

Lord God, preserve the so far fallen peoples of Great Britain from further dissolution, from the machinations of the globalists, Jews, and Freemasons. If voting ever works, let it work today in Great Britain. Show them mercy for the sake that they were once yours, and grant that they may be so again. Amen.