Who is the best candidate for the French election and who is most likely to win?

She got 18% last time and it wasn't enough to move on to the second round. Even if this year she gets enough vote to go to the second round, minorities and young people (who usually don't vote) will go out to vote against her. The only people who think she has chances to win it all are Americans from the_donald and Holla Forums

In France you can't win the first turn unless you get 50% + 1, what happen is that the 2 highest candidate go to the second turn where coalition form. The thing is nobody will do a coalition with LePen and every one will do a coalition against them so they only win local election in region they had a majority and European because nobody vote for those.
For the terrorism rhetoric Vall and Fillion also did it and she try to appear moderate so she doesn't get that.

I don't know in what fantasy world you live but nobody on the left will vote LePen, they will pick Fillion over LePen every time

I think that Manuel Valls holds the best change of winning if he becomes candidate for the party. If socialist parties can`t take a stand against immigration they can`t hope to win against right-wing populists.

Manuel Valls is a neo-liberal and he does poorer than Melenchon in the polls

Being protectionist and social democrat with light nationalism is really popular right now. I doubt that would change much.

I don`t disagree with your points. I just think that he would be better choice for the spirit of the party, since unless we pay some type of lip-service to anti-immigration majority left is bound to keep losing elections across EU.

I don't know where you can get the idea that Valls would be anything but the death of the socialist party, the only good thing that Valls might do is force the left to rally behind Mélenchon

Also : lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/01/26/francois-fillon-renoncera-a-la-presidentielle-s-il-est-mis-en-examen-dans-l-affaire-de-l-emploi-suppose-fictif-de-sa-femme_5069771_4854003.html
TL:DR : Fillion will get BTFO if his wife gets charged

There is no such thing as a "good" bourgeois electoralist candidate.

Le Penn.

Fillion

Le Pen.
i hope she wins so that she can crash the EU with no survivors

no the modern left is a joke.
they care more about muh refugees then the working class or getting rid of the neoliberal EU

Fillon will win unless he does indeed get BTFO by the scandal involving him and his wife.
If he's out, that fuccboi Macron will win.

Jean-Luc Melenchon is the only correct answer. everyone else GTFO

Fucking classcucks, when will they learn?

Just like they picked Clinton over Trump in the US of A?

Not even socdems can feel entitled to working class vote anymore, and you claim they'll choose a pro-business xenophobic rightist over a pro-worker xenophobic rightist? For what reason? Superior mainstream propaganda? That doesn't even work anymore.

That's not what the polls say. Yes polls aren't very accurate at the moment but when they say Le Pen trails by 25 points I think you have to listen.

PS is likely to nominate Hamon, who wants a basic income

Doubt he'll win though

If it comes down to Fillon vs Le Pen, Le Pen is probably the better choice

Mélenchon, he is our Sanders / Corbyn, and I would be glad to see him win.
Yeah, yeah, I know, the revolution is coming any day now. Stay irrelevant in your squat but call me when you invite a good punk band to play :).

I seriously don't know.

Everyone is predicting a Fillon vs. Le Pen for the second round.
But unlike 2002 with Chirac, Fillon is an unlikable Thatcherite for anyone who isn't very right-wing. He is against abortion, really want to dismantle some parts of our welfare state, and since we didn't totally fell for the free market and pro-life memes, these positions wouldn't attract the mainstream left and liberal parts of the electorate, so I don't think a coalition against Le Pen would really work. She definitely has her chances if we have to choose between two.
He also have been recently caught in a corruption scandal (i.e. his wife was paid to do nothing with government money), and since most people are now tired of the typical magouilles of the Republican/UMP party (e.g. Sarkozy, Juppé), his future isn't as bright as it was a month ago.

A Macron vs. Le Pen could work for Macron though, since he is more liberal on social issues.
He is the Silicon Valley candidate in some ways, a sort of French libertarian. Our journos like him a lot.

Mélenchon is popular with the left-leaning college-educated youth, the Nuit Debout supporters and the average redditor who is concerned by climate change (at least on /r/france), etc.
But I don't know if that's enough support for him, and unfortunately, young people don't vote a lot (I can totally understand why though).
If he miraculously would make it to the second round against Le Pen, he would definitely have his chances. But I'm not too hopeful.

I'm pretty sure Benoit Hamon will win the PS primary, since he is part of the slightly less neoliberal part of the party who hasn't disappointed everyone yet.
But the PS is done. Only the hardcore PS supporters will vote for him.

Anyway, this is an interesting situation that is more complex than it seems from the outside I think, and since the polls and manufactured consent in 2016 all failed, and it's bound to happen again, I can't predict with certainty who will win.

They choose Chirac over Le Pen, and Chirac was widely known as a fucking corrupt fuck.
Unlike in Burgerland, we had a taste of of Nazi rule in WW2, and it didn't let fond memory. The FN is tainted with Petainism apology, and it turns away a lot of people.

#Imwithher tbqh familam

her dad was kind of a fucking retard but shes not too bad

"Francois Fillon: I will drop out of France president race if investigated" bbc.com/news/world-38769136

Yeah, but people had a more favorable opinion of Chirac back then.
The Guignols de l'info, who was a pretty popular show at the time, were portraying him as a typical French bon-vivant for example.
Of course, he was corrupt, but the 1990s weren't as bad as today I think, there wasn't any financial crisis in people's minds. People cared less. Also, the Le Pen patriarch was scarier than his daughter.

Fillon has the same stance on social policies than Le Pen now. I think a lot more liberals and leftists will abstain if he is against her during the second round.

And Sarkozy said he would retire of politics in 2012, and Trump said he will build a wall with Mexico's money, and Bill Clinton said he didn't have sex with Monica Lewinsky. What's your point ?

Le Pen is the accelerationist candidate. She's also the only one that will crash the neoliberal EU.
Sounds good to me.

I have no faith in the French socialist party after Mitterrand.
It's just liberal socdem wrapped up in slightly more radical language and aesthetics.

If he breaks this promise he will look very bad. It's not the sort of promise that's worth making unless you intend to keep it.

Le Pen wants Macron, she thinks she's got the best chance against him.
Really I think she'd get btfo

what it not good is to have now two retard with nukes.

Man if it ever come to this, i really hope someone suicidebomb them in the presidential debate.

fuck meant to quote

DAMNIT

u wot? that's Fillon

He isn't in the PS anymore, he formed a coalition with the communist party and others in 2008 : en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left_Front_(France)
Of course, there is a lot of odds that he would be exactly like Tsipras, but whatever, I still think he has more potential than the rest.

And I'm not so sure Le Pen would crash the EU, we aren't the UK, who always has been dispassionate about the Union. It would way more complicated for us to get out of the UE, and I'm skeptical about her keeping her promises, but whatever, we will see.

Yeah, well, the recent scandal with his wife makes him look pretty bad right now.
A few months ago, Juppé was advertised to be the favorite of the Republican primaries but the right-wing electorate didn't vote for him since he was kinda like Sarkozy, an old corrupted politician whose political career (outside of Bordeaux) should have been over already years ago.
Like I said earlier, since Sarkozy's presidential term, people are really tired of corruption in the Republican party. Fillon won because he wasn't at first glance corrupted like Sarkozy, Juppé and Copé, but well, it turned that he was.
So I'm not so sure if he still has its chances to end up in the second round anymore.

I wish we could edit our posts, godammit

Isn't Le Pen quite economically protectionist and in favour of bringing back industry? Could help French workers

Better than Fillon/Valls/Macron anyway

He match hillary on some points

Yanis Varoufakis reckoned he was one of the few switched on people he worked with in the EU.
The rest were clueless sheep.

Mélenchon is the best candidate.

It's either him or bust. In the end it doesn't matter who wins, we are getting fucked anyway, just like always.
Why should I cheer for Marcon or Fillon(, who has a nepotism charge up right now, but it probably won't hurt him that much, because it's pretty much what every conservative does)? Because they are the lesser evil? There is no lesser evil, you are it or you don't and if you can not disassociate yourself from Le Pen in terms of infamity, that is your fucking problem.