The global economy seems drowning in over production with only speculation keeping it going. It is eerily similar to the economy before the 1929 crash yet with far more red flags like the entire retail sector imploding with Moody and S&P Global Market Intelligence predicting a dozen more retail firms going bankrupt in 2018.
Is it 1929 yet?
Who knows, at the rate things have been going I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to hold off the crash for several more years with some fancy monetary policy and expanding the bread and circus routine for people
No, it's 1939
No, we will have endless speculation.
communists parties skyrocket
It doesn't work like that, the capital is fictional till it is realized in the productive sectors. Wall Street can say a company is worth quintillions of dollars yet till said company earns quintillions of dollars their share is just meaningless paper.
quintillions of dollars yet till said company earns quintillions of dollars their share is just meaningless paper.
Modern currency is being reduced to meaningless paper being pumped into the economy, though.
Lol no, have you seen Tesla?
already forgot about '08
We'll just get another neoliberal shill like Obama again.
The state of the economy is crazy huge asset prices, huge private wealth, huge private and public debt, small wages.
Thus why it seems like we are heading for a repeat of 1929 giving that fictional capital has to be realized and according to Marx M->M! is impossible.
Porky will just have another bailout.
Who is the axis and who is the allies in this timeline?
Call me when it's 1939
You do know the aftermath of 1939 right?
This is looking like it will be worse than '08.
Plus, we were already in conditions to get another neoliberal shill - Clinton won the popular vote, and the only unusual losses for the Dems in 2016's presidential election were in states where the center-"left" votes went to Stein. Her right wing economic and foreign policy is largely what dealt her a blow in the post-great recession economy - what would it look like after/during a depression?
World War 3 would have very different effects on the economy from World War 2, even if it didn't go nuclear. Chemical weapons were never deployed on the battlefield in WW2, so I think it is completely possible that a conventional great power war could still be fought. War production will not affect much of anything, since modern military equipment takes so damn long to build. The days of 5,000 planes a month have given way to under two dozen (I read a news article about how F-35 production was about to jump up to an astounding 17/month). I can't find much information on missile production, but the entire armed forces only have about 4,000 tomahawk missiles, production of which has ceased as a replacement is in the works. On VJ day, the US had 28 aircraft carriers, while today is has 10 (19 if you count a few other much smaller craft which could theoretically be made to function as carriers), each of which took years to build and one or two of which is almost always out of service for maintenance. The supply chains for all of these advanced armaments are very complex and involve highly skilled workers, such as welders for ballistic armor, without close equivalents in civilian industry. This makes it extremely difficult to ramp up the rate of production in a way comparable to what happened in the second world war, where a destroyer could be built in a month by the end of the war. It is conceivable that after a few weeks of fighting, all of the weaponry of both sides will be completely destroyed and won't be readily replaced. What happens then, who knows. But the war economy stimulus would have come over the course of the three decades preceding the fighting, not during it.
It is conceivable that after a few weeks of fighting, all of the weaponry of both sides will be completely destroyed and won't be readily replaced. What happens then, who knows.
They use old designs.
So you think we're going to end up just refighting world war 2, assuming any industrial centers make it past the first month? I guess the Siegfried line did end up playing a little role in the 2nd war, so there is some parallel.
the aftermath of 1939 was 1949
Chemical weapons were never deployed on the battlefield in WW2
They were though, in the east. (See the battle of Changde for one example)
Neither the nationalists or communists had the capability to respond in kind, so that's an exceptional case.
This year when the Fed raises its rates.
There will he no bailout. The public won't stand for it, you can't pull the same trick twice and porky knows it, social media and the internet gives porky the ability to predict the reaction to that.
No, the ground work has been laid for a bail in. Everyone's savings and pay check will be seized and turned into a certicate of deposit and you'll be given an allowance, they already did it in Italy.
The public won't stand for it
Everyone's savings and pay check will be seized
A bailout sounds way more palatable than this, tbh.
The public won't stand for it
the public won't stand for a relatively painless bailout with poor optics
therefore politicians will instead directly agitate the public by taking their savings
incidentally the more i read about Italy's bail in, the more it seems only large scale investors lose their cash, not ordinary people.
of course, if you were opposing a policy that only hit shareholders, bondholders, and people with large savings I wouldn't be particularly surprised.
No, the ground work has been laid for a bail in. Everyone's savings and pay check will be seized and turned into a certicate of deposit and you'll be given an allowance
How will porky run his businesses then?
Our banks bail in is not a new revolutionary strategy. It's just government assisted bankruptcy and capital concentration.
I fucking hate how cucked my nation is. Between neo-fascist, legislative lockdowns and rampant porkies feasting in the background I have no clue how are we still functioning. A few hundred kilometers from where I live there's a factory that kept releasing PFAS for the last 20 years and poisoned half the Venetian region and yet none even threw a fucking molotov in the factory, everyone if fine and dandy, especially the criminals responsible.
right wing populists get elected and keep the system from collapsing with the help of Keynes
communist left remains dead
lol the american elite just rinsed the state for $1.5tn they don't give a fuck what you think
Who knows, at the rate things have been going I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to hold off the crash for several more years with some fancy monetary policy
It better be pretty damn fancy, because they have already nearly exhausted their credit expansion tools as we know them.
The public won't stand for it
The American government does not and will not care about the public, and hasn’t since the Articles of Confederation was abolished.
Capitalism is in a perpetual state of crisis
implying right wingers don't think of Keynes as a commie
This the age of the "let them eat cake" right my dude, this is the chance for the Deleonist army to rise up, the liberal state and its surveillance apparatus is based around dumbass subcontractors, they can't do shit.
More like 1914 tbh, prepare your asses boys, we on the long march
This is what will happen, people here forget that the left is dead and will never be resurrected. Too many retards on the left are trapped with infighting and theorizing.
True but the level of instability changes. Sears is over a century old, was the largest retailer till 1989 and is basically a dead company walking now while investors shrug as such instability is the new norm. We went from the idea that what is good for GM and GE is what is good for America to such companies dropping like flies and investors thinking it is normal.
Speak for yourself.
We are a year closer to it. Don't worry, it WILL happen and Republicans will take the blame. But Republicans will also be the ones tasked with rebuilding things.
Speculation is not endless because debts are not endless. At some point, debtors will find themselves unable to repay loans whether they are business loans, mortgages, student debts or a credit card. As the rate of profit will always fall without fail (either due to market competition or just an economy of scale) this is inevitable as liabilities begin to exceed assets. Capitalists themselves admit this as an inherent part of capitalism, at some point the borrowing stops when the bank realizes too many borrowers are in default.
During this time of "adjustment" profitable things will continue on while anything not making a profit dies. Things we've taken for granted like Tesla, Twitter, Youtube, Uber etc all drop unless they start making money.
No, it's truly dead. As mentioned even with ideal economic conditions the neolib candidate was slaughtered by the protectionist, even when the protectionist is a fucking retard who can't even run a casino. If we hit another recession or even a depression, tolerance of neoilbrealism will go right out the window because people will no longer have a stake in that game which they'd have already lost. Trump has already moved about a third of the country in this direction by lending them a voice, we're not going back as boomers start dying off and memories of the cold war (when the neoliberal system was first created by necessity) fade.
But even if we still somehow get another neolib shill it won't matter because the rest of the planet will be collapsing and unwilling to partake in the system anyway. That's the magic of this, it's unstoppable.
as boomers start dying off and memories of the cold war (when the neoliberal system was first created by necessity) fade.
The neoliberal system was created as created not out of the cold war but the end of the long boom, thus why the USA had Keynesian economic policies during the long boom even though it was also the cold war.
Yeah OK. Instead of a neoliberal we got a neocon. The outcome is the same economically, as we saw with the recent tax cuts for the rich.
You seem to be buying deep into just world fallacy.
I'm not saying anything is "just", only that capitalism will not continue as it has been.
Yet the market is still volatile, the fictitious capital is still many times greater then the total assets of Earth. Capitalists only regained trust in the markets because bourgeois states bailed them out enough to go back to their delusional view of the markets. Meaning we only dealt with the bubble popping but inflating the bubble again.
assuming any industrial centers make it past the first month
Well, if we go by the above post, the Us have about 4,000 Tomahawks, so the odds for successful strategic warfare in the short term are slim. All capabilities related to reducing population and industrial centers is today concentrated in nuclear weapons. So they would survive for a while. Resource flows, not so much; it should be relatively easy to quickly and permanently choke of shipping with modern technology. Which is probably partly why China is so hell-bent on building overland routes through Eurasia.
There will just be a repeat of the phoney war stage of WW2 as military production is expanded to cope with expected losses.