Where will the next revolution happen?

Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell

So, where will the next revolution happen?
What contributes to Socialism forming? Do you think it's more likely to happen in a third world country? How much does social democracy contribute to workers being okay with their oppression? When will this next revolution happen?

Future predictions thread, I guess.

Evan Morgan
Evan Morgan

Not in our lifetime that's for sure, user as a wobbly my only suggestion is to breed or adopt, don't treat your kids like shit, don't try and mold them, etc. and give them some socialist ideas and depending on where you live teach them to hide their power level. Furthermore teach theory. I'm heading out the door as I type this FYI

Julian Nelson
Julian Nelson

A few months before the revolution in Russia Lenin declared there would never be one in his lifetime. Not saying we will see one ourselves, but revolutions have a way to develop organically, even outside leftist influence.

That said I unfortunately agree with you, I don't think we will see large socialist movements rise up any time soon. Maybe with the coming crash something will happen but I doubt it, an economic crash alone won't cut it.

Brody Hernandez
Brody Hernandez

Turkey or India.

Julian Powell
Julian Powell

I agree

Charles Williams
Charles Williams

china

Jackson Smith
Jackson Smith

What makes you say that?

James Allen
James Allen

South Africa

Julian Murphy
Julian Murphy

The UK, we're coming for your toothbrush Middle England.

Tbh China is pretty-much primed for a USSR-style collapse of government authority when the next crash hits.

Brayden Smith
Brayden Smith

Honestly something is going to have to give in the US. From the abysmal inequality, the total lack of state accountability to the people, the growing poverty, foreign wars, etc. Depending on how big the next crash is I can see America degenerating into major civil conflict at the very least. It’s likely that this will result in Balkanization, but maybe one of those new countries will be socialist.

Isaiah Johnson
Isaiah Johnson

I don't have high hopes for whatever includes south georgia. In some places its already 3rd world conditions just with a few nicer things.

Aiden King
Aiden King

The US will shatter before it ever reforms tbh.

There will be an active, rather than a passive, black genocide if this happens.

Christopher Hall
Christopher Hall

ITT need moar leaders because egalitarianism

Luke Campbell
Luke Campbell

I don't understand any part of this post

Ryan James
Ryan James

Tbh China is pretty-much primed for a USSR-style collapse of government authority when the next crash hits.
Soviets collapsed because state structure was antithetical to Capitalist mode of production (not to mention the whole cultural baggage that simply screamed "kill those fucking liberals"). However, China is already running Capitalism.

A better example would be Chile circa 1973.

There will be proclaimed something along the lines of
… it is a fact that the current government of the Republic, from the beginning, has sought to conquer absolute power with the obvious purpose of subjecting all citizens to the strictest political and economic control by the state and, in this manner, fulfilling the goal of establishing a totalitarian system: the absolute opposite of the representative democracy established by the Constitution;

And all power will be transferred to the people (general Pi No Che) who will be much better at defending freedom and liberty of general public.

Aaron Hill
Aaron Hill

tonight at 8 pm me and my bros are doing a revolution over at chicago you comin dude?

Alexander Ross
Alexander Ross

Eh Chile didn't have the cronyist nomenclature: and China is worse off because the nomenclature don't even have a unifying ideology anymore. There is nothing binding the CPC to power except for the sake of power itself, the CPC can try to abuse nationalism as much as it can to justify its further rule of China but the corrupt system they have created just will not withstand the next financial crash.

Now the really interesting question is who will take over? Having Taiwan do it would be like Moldova taking power over Romania post-Causcaseacusaeacuascasucauseuauseasceau and there is no major opposition movement like the Bolsheviks to seize the state. Now obviously in the separatist regions (Tibet, Uyghurstan, Hon Kong although that is more democratic than separatist groups) but there is no real domestic movement. That posit the question who will take control of the apparatus of hte country: at-least in the former USSR there were oligarchs who had bought major industries to do so but in China they already exist and are a part of the CPC.

TL;DR China as it currently exists is fucked but its massive change will be immensely interesting to observe.

Xavier Taylor
Xavier Taylor

t. kaiserreich reed

Luke Carter
Luke Carter

ctrl+f
No Greece
If there is any country in Europe that has a chance of going full commie it's Greece. They've been in economic freefall for years and the EU has gutted there country plus they also have beef with the Turks. I think it might become like a Catalonia or Ukraine freestate but it'll probably get crushed like the former because the powers that be will not accept a leftist state in anyway shape or form.

Gabriel Sullivan
Gabriel Sullivan

Isn't Golden Dawn way more popular than KKE, and whatever small shitty anarchist groups there are, though? I don't know much about greek politics but a fascist Greece seems more likely than a communist Greece tbh.

Jayden Cruz
Jayden Cruz

That could only happen if either the EU was dissolved or if Socialists should succeed in taking over the European institutions.
As it is right now the Greek state has no real control over its economic policy.

Zachary Hernandez
Zachary Hernandez

Although it might very well be the least classcucked European country.

Owen Bell
Owen Bell

This.

There is no way EFF doesn’t enter government in 2019.

Parker Allen
Parker Allen

Eh they sound a little bit spooked, but I don't really know more than what a couple of minutes of research via Google has shown me.

Jacob Young
Jacob Young

Don't underestimate small groups, remember Mao got btfo multiple times but stuck it out

Ethan James
Ethan James

the regions where socialism the most need are the most reactionary

Chase Jenkins
Chase Jenkins

prolepill me on this group

Angel Perez
Angel Perez

Eh Chile didn't have the cronyist nomenclature: and China is worse off because the nomenclature don't even have a unifying ideology anymore.
I am not adherent of crypto-Anarchist idea that Soviet "nomenclature" (nomenklatura - high-ranking Party members) played any major role in late USSR. Key factor was "red directorate" (captains of Soviet industry). Soviet counter-revolution was not Bureacratic, but Techocratic.

but the corrupt system they have created just will not withstand the next financial crash.
You have a very weird perception of state. Financial crises do not end "systems". People do. Or, to be more precise, organized people do.

Consequently, the question is what power group wants to end current China. And the answer is: none. At least, I am not aware of any significant group that has vested interest in overthrowing current Chinese Social Democracy. Nobody would benefit from it.

Capitalists might not be amused by it, but they are not threatened by it and what they want (privatise more of public sector) does not require overthrowing the state. They are already part of the China's system - up to and including membership in CPC.

Alexander Perez
Alexander Perez

a bloo bloo bloo they want to take our land and slaves

Gusano propaganda shit from apartheidists

Parker Reyes
Parker Reyes

where will the next revolution happen?
hold on, let me ask my friend at the CIA

Juan Johnson
Juan Johnson

Imagine how many millions of people will die of disease and starvation if a revolution hits India. Probably for the best. There are just to many people alive today.
no body said revolution would be easy

Jason Perez
Jason Perez

The Philippines? NPA membership has been steadily increasing since Duterte took office, and his recent steps to move the country back into martial law will just serve to exacerbate recruitment, just as it did when Marcos declared martial law.

Also, the Philippine economy has been bubbling like mad in the past 8 years, but that will have to come to an end someday. The crisis phase of the country's capitalist cycle is inevitable–and it won't be pretty.

lol jk the philippine communist movement is going to blunder into irrelevancy like it did in 1986

Dylan Cook
Dylan Cook

The flags in this picture are disgusting. You ruined the flag of South Carolina. :'(

Sebastian Long
Sebastian Long

Nowhere because none of you fags have the balls to just get violent already.

Christopher Edwards
Christopher Edwards

Probably for the best. There are just to many people alive today.
google Bookchin, reactionary.

Julian Green
Julian Green

Britain

Lucas Rivera
Lucas Rivera

mexico

Austin Morales
Austin Morales

Lenin in a speech to the Swiss communist youth in December 1916 expressed the exact same thing. Never say never comrade.

James Torres
James Torres

I do not know where the first 21st century communist revolution will occur, but I am certain that there will be one within the next few decades.

Reactionary eras beget revolutionary eras.

Jaxon White
Jaxon White

Brazil.

Liam Scott
Liam Scott

A peaceful revolution will happen in Britain

Elijah Davis
Elijah Davis

They ironically suffer from much of the same problems that the Soviet Union suffered from. The political system there has become calcified against change, it seems like it no longer capable of reforming to address its internal contradictions as they arise. Even the bourgeois economists and the fucking World Bank were railing against the GOP tax plan, the fact that they went ahead with it tells me that they are incapable of adapting to not only the needs of the population, but the inherent un-sustainability of their current model of capitalism. This is a major departure from the America of the past, which showed it was capable of dealing with catrastrophic contradictions in their system as they arose. They reformed when the monopolies sprang up, they reformed when the depression hit, they reformed when Keynesianism ran out of steam. But now, despite overwhelming pressure from both above and below, they have not only failed to make basic reforms, they have pushed in the opposite direction. There’s no way this can last.

William Roberts
William Roberts

peaceful revolution
No such thing

Xavier Nguyen
Xavier Nguyen

Oh a peaceful revolution can occur, it is just that you have to fight the counterrevolution with force: but it is far easier to fight a counterrevolution when you are the norm than the other way around. Corbyn-McDonnell try to get elected, deep state tries to coup them, they win because when a force is the default you can make the coup'ers look like the great other ebul revolutionaries trying to overthrow the status quo (see Erdogan in Turkey, textbook example of how to counter a coup by making you hte position of "DEMOCRACY"). Now I am 99.91% sure McDonnell has a counter-plan for a coup, he has read the SI, he is a bright bloke. DotP by 2020 comrades.

Colton Cox
Colton Cox

You'd need the army on your side to do that, probably. But hey, good response/10.

Luke Sanchez
Luke Sanchez

where will the next revolution happen?
Across the entire world if we're hoping to succeed. If you're asking where it's going to start, I have no idea beyond that'd it be a place where proles are actively engaged in class struggle, whatever form that may take

Jaxon Long
Jaxon Long

The british army has been just as fucked by Tory austerity as the NHS has, I'm surprised the army hasnt tried a coup already

Dylan Perez
Dylan Perez

Muh queen

Hudson Lopez
Hudson Lopez

underrated

Aaron Jackson
Aaron Jackson

Right because insurrectionist attacks have worked so brilliantly in the past.

Grayson Anderson
Grayson Anderson

Saudi Arabia

Juan Cook
Juan Cook

I agree with you though I'm a pessimist and believe revolution won't happen anytime soon.

However like this user said I definitely don't like the way this is going. Reminds me of the market reforms in Chile under Pinochet and scares the fuck out of me tbh and with the military / police / security culture in the US such outcomes are totally believable imo

A successful United States revolution would probably destroy capitalism altogether in a domino effect

Elijah Richardson
Elijah Richardson

I'm surprised no one has said Nepal yet. Granted there are already commies in government, but they're still a long way from socialism.

Jaxson Kelly
Jaxson Kelly

Maoists declaring protracted people's war against other Maoists doesn't sound productive

Benjamin Hughes
Benjamin Hughes

but it'll probably get crushed like the former because the powers that be will not accept a leftist state in anyway shape or form.
leftist state in anyway shape or form.
nigger most countries in the world are leftist or take left ideas and incorporate them into society (america and most of europe)

Lincoln Ward
Lincoln Ward

Keynesianism isn't leftist you illiterate cick

Julian Adams
Julian Adams

A revolution in Saudi-Arabia would be horrible for them, they wouldn't be able to sell their oil anymore nor import labor power. They would turn into Yemen.

Eli Butler
Eli Butler

Exactly, and so has both the police & security services. Sure the SS have more powers but they have less and less manpower to use that. May might be killing the deep state without knowing it.

Samuel Bennett
Samuel Bennett

Leftism =/= socialism

Keynesianism =/= social programs

Matthew Perez
Matthew Perez

The US government has been in a slow motion collapse for over a decade now, I have a hard time believing whoever wins in 2020 will accomplish anything. The political system is buried under mountains of undemocratic procedures, legalized corruption, and living fossils in most important offices. Anyone with leftist opinions has been systematically made unemployable and have virtually no one to vote for anyway. A crisis in confidence in the government following a major natural disaster or economic crash isn't unlikely.

Brody Fisher
Brody Fisher

iirc the south african communist party doesn't get on with the eff

Daniel White
Daniel White

I could see a country like Armenia or Moldova having a revolution, they've suffered big time since 1991 and the USSR is still popular there, yet they're small enough for the big capitalist powers to ignore them.

Chase Jackson
Chase Jackson

An Indian socialist revolution would be absolutely huge. Imagine a billion people overthrowing capitalism and putting ethnic/religious tension behind them. It would easily be on par with the Russian and Chinese revolutions as one of the most earth shattering political events of the modern era.

Gavin Mitchell
Gavin Mitchell

SACP is Eurocommie at most radical, more like an arm of the ANC on average.

EFF is Leninist, with the expropriation of all privately-owned land without compensation being the party's first and most important priority.

Camden Rogers
Camden Rogers

Agree about the US, I think a lot of european leftists don't fully understand how broken the US political system is; it's fundamentally unreformable because fixing it requires overhauling the Constitution and that's not happening without a serious revolutionary threat. Add to that the fact that Americans are the worst hit by neoliberal cancer and associated late-capitalist problems and there will be hell to pay in a few decades. This doesn't mean the US is destined for socialism, but it does make it possible.

I see three outcomes for the US in 40 years:
1. Socialism with American Characteristics (i.e. with strong ChristSoc influences and decentralized/market socialist consumer goods economy)
2. Reformist Social Democracy (Bernie/Norway tier) if porkies get their shit together and realize they need to adapt
3. Fascism draped in the flag and holding a cross (if porkies decide to adapt in a less friendly way)

Michael Campbell
Michael Campbell

nigger most countries in the world are leftist
Sup /pol/.
Capitalism with a welfare state is still capitalism. Are the means of production owned by the workers or the rich? If it's the workers then the country is leftist. Right now we live in a capitalist world.

Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly

The military profit machine will fight to defend itself, and it can't remain in place even under a mild social democratic government. As much as we talk about imperialism many people seem to overlook the elephant in the room, the biggest military machine in history that enriches or employs the worst people on earth.

Dylan Brown
Dylan Brown

Anybody "owning" the means of production

Kayden Phillips
Kayden Phillips

this. As the heartland bleeds out the empire will get more aggressive, causing it to bleed out even more thus increase the power and influence of the military industrial complex even more

Jace Peterson
Jace Peterson

everything right of full on communism is right wing
wew

Caleb Cox
Caleb Cox

Mutualists and some Democratic Socialists want to use anti-capitalist markets with worker control of the MoP. They're still left-wing and not what you would call full communism. Some Social Democrats can also be considered left-leaning or centrist.

Noah Jones
Noah Jones

Fascism draped in the flag and holding a cross
I have a feeling it would be a very short phase, American fascists are amazingly inept, google the silver shirts for reference.

Ethan Morris
Ethan Morris

american revolution
american civil war

yup.

Joseph Wood
Joseph Wood

he has read the SI
pleb here, what is that?

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